AUD Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.7090
• Australian Dollar Rebound Loses Steam Immediately After Resistance Break
• Short Trade Aiming Sub-0.70 Triggered on Signs of Down Trend Resumption

The Australian Dollar may be readying to resume its long-term down trend against its US namesake having found resistance below the 0.73 figure. Prices recovered as expectedafter putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern and even breached trend line resistance capping gains since mid-May, but the move swiftly stalled thereafter.

Near-term support is now at 0.6983, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis clears the way for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.6800. Alternatively, a recovery back above the 14.6% Fib at 0.7096 – now recast as resistance – opens the door for a challenge of the September 19 high at 0.7279.

We will now enter short AUDUSD, initially targeting 0.6983. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 0.7200. Once the first objective is reached, we will take profit on half of the position and trail the stop-loss to the breakeven level.

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The AUD/USD pair initially fell during the course of the session on Thursday, but found enough support near the 0.72 level to turn things back around. Ultimately, it appears that the market should bounce from here, and as a result if we can break above the top of the range for the Thursday session we would be willing to start going long on short-term moves. We don’t have any interest in hang on anything for significant amount of time though, as the market should continue to chop around. If we break down, we could go as low as 0.70 again, but we would wait until we move below the 0.7150 level to do such a trade.

Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.7058
• Aussie Dollar Soars After Upbeat Jobs Data, Attempts to Overturn Monthly Down Trend
• Opting to Hold Short Position Absent Bullish Reversal Confirmation on Trend Line Break

The Australian Dollar rose against its US counterpart having been mired in a quiet consolidation range above the 0.70 figure following a strong set of jobs figures. The pair has thus far failed to build bearish follow-through after breaking rising trend line support set from early September, a move that seemingly hinted at long-term down trend resumption.

From here, a daily close above the 0.7164-99 area marked by a falling trend line and a horizontal pivot level opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7392. Alternatively, a turn below initial support at 0.7016, the November 10 low, clears the way for a test of the 38.2% Fib expansion at 0.6902.

We entered short AUDUSD at 0.7058, initially targeting the September 4 low at 0.6907. Confirmation of a bullish reversal remains absent for now absent a break of trend line resistance. With that in mind, we will continue to hold the position and wait for sellers to re-take the initiative.


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Talking Points:
The Australian Dollar is edging lower having tested trend line resistance guiding the move lower since mid-October against its US namesake. The pair launched sharply higher after a strong set of employment figures dented RBA rate cut expectations but prices failed to overturn the near-term bearish bias.

Near-term trend line resistance is at 0.7134, with a break above that on a daily closing basis clearing the way for a test of a horizontal pivot at 0.7199. Alternatively, a move below the November 10 low at 0.7016 opens the door for a challenge of the 0.6902-07 zone, marked by the September 4 bottom and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion.
We sold AUDUSD at 0.7058, aiming for the September 4 low at 0.6907. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above the 0.72 figure.

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AUD/CAD was on the primary bearish market condition with the bear market rally: the price was on the breakout for breaking resistance levels on the way to go to uptrend. For now - the p[rice is breaking 100 period SMA and it was stopped near 200 period SMA in the ranging between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend of the chart.

Resistance	Support
0.9870	0.9678
N/A	0.9148

If the price breaks 0.9870 key resistance level so the reversal from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.7273
• Aussie Setup Little-Changed After Upswing Triggers Breakeven Stop on Short
• Opting to Re-Enter Position, Initially Targeting Another Test Below 0.72 Mark

The Australian Dollar continues to consolidate below the 0.73 figure against its US counterpart having broken support set from early November. Overall positioning may be carving out a bearish Head and Shoulders topping pattern, although confirmation is still pending for now.

From here, a daily close below resistance-turned-support at 0.7184 opens the door for a challenge of 0.7089, the intersection of a rising trend line set from September lows and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Alternatively, a push above horizontal pivot resistance at 0.7283 paves the way for a test of the 38.2% Fib retracement at 0.7387.

We sold AUD/USD at 0.7250 and subsequently booked profit on half of the position. The second half of the trade was stopped out at breakeven. Overall positioning remains broadly unchanged from the time of initial entry however and we will re-enter the position. The initial target will be 0.7184 once again, with a stop-loss activated on a daily close above 0.7283. As before, we will close out half of exposure and move the stop to breakeven once the first objective is met.

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You'd better go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next entry into the zone between 0.7263 and 0.7279.

AUDUSD M5: 37 pips range price movement by AUD - Employment Change news event:

AUD/JPY: daily breakout with the possible bullish reversal. The pair is on primary bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud with the secondary rally to be started: price is on local uptrend for the breakout of the key resistance levels trying to cross 84.79 resistance to above on close daily bar for the breakout to be continuing. Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the breakout to be continuing by the direction, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish reversal to be started in the near future.

There are 3 scenarios for the price movement for the week:

• breakout to be continuing up to 88.20 resistance in case the price breaks 84.79 to above on close daily bar,
• daily bullish reversal to be started in case the price breaks 88.20,
• or the ranging within the bearish within the levels.

There are the following news events which will be affected on GBP/CAD price movement for the coming week:

• 2016-01-31 23:30 GMT | [AUD - MI Inflation Gauge]
• 2016-02-01 01:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
• 2016-02-01 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Commodity Prices]
• 2016-02-01 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
• 2016-02-02 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]
• 2016-02-03 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]
• 2016-02-03 04:30 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks]
• 2016-02-04 00:30 GMT | [AUD - NAB Quarterly Business Confidence]
• 2016-02-05 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]
• 2016-02-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

Resistance	Support
88.20	81.94
90.71	79.20

This situation persists as it continues to grind upwards slowly. There is a new development – we have quite clear probable support not far below now at 0.7125 which might be exploitable, but do so carefully.