AUD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD
Weekly

-FXTW was looking for resistance in AUD/USD from the October 2013-January 2014 line near .7800. That level has not been reached and a tweezer top (candlestick pattern…tweezer bottoms identified the lows in September 2015 and January) warns that it may not be reached. Also, risk of a top is heightened given COT considerations. Don’t forget about the cyclical influence next week…
-“The 2nd week of April is lining up as a potentially important pivot in time. The 1993 and 2001 lows (latter is the all-time low) are exactly 392 weeks apart. 392 weeks from the 2001 low is the week of the October 2008 crash (the low was 3 weeks later). 392 weeks from the October 2008 crash is the week of April 11th. My colleague Kristian Kerr, whose cycle work is a must read, often stresses the importance of what a market is doing into a time window. In other words, a high/low could form if the market is heading into resistance/support within the window (and if other conditions are met of course). Also, a break of a key level during this time would warn of possible acceleration in the same direction. Context is key (always is). For now, just know that the week of April 11th is a big point on the X-Axis for Aussie.”

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The Australian Dollar is attempting to rebuild upside momentum, working to secure another test of the 0.77 figure after finding interim support below the 0.75 mark. On the other hand, a Head and Shoulders topping pattern be in the works, although confirmation of such a setup is far from clear at this point.
Near-term support is in the 0.7477-0.7511 area, marked by the March 24 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this barrier exposes the intersection of a rising trend lien and the 38.2% level at 0.7381. Alternatively, a daily close above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 0.7622 paves the way for a test of the 0.7703-23 region (23.6% expansion, March 31 high).

We entered short AUD/USD at 0.7526 as technical positioning hinted the long-term down trend was possibly resuming, in line with our 2016 fundamental outlook. Prices are pressuring our stop-loss at 0.76 but the trade is set to remain in play absent a daily close above this level.We continue to initially target 0.7381 as the first downside objective.

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Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7860.

Daily price is on bearish reversal with the breakdown which was started in the middle of the last week: the price is testing 0.9751 support level for the breakdown to be continuing. Chinkou Span line crossed the price to below for the bearish trend, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bearish breakdown to be continuing in the near future.

If D1 price will break 0.9751 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 0.9961 resistance level on close bar so the price will be reversed back to the bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break
  0.9961
  for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 0.9751 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: bearish breakdown

Resistance	Support
0.9961	0.9751
1.0053	0.9596

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : breakdown

The Australian Dollar turned lower against its US counterpart as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Prices are now challenging support capping the downside since early March. The move lower followed a disappointing set of first-quarter CPI figures.

Near-term trend line support is at 0.7549, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7450. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 14.6% level at 0.7688 paves the way for a challenge of the 38.2% Fib expansion at 0.7834.

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The Australian Dollar resumed the descent against its US namesake after brief pause to consolidate, with sellers establishing a foothold below the 0.74 figure. The pair reverseddownward as expected after pricesproduced a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern.

Near-term support is at 0.7331, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 61.8% level at 0.7212. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 38.2% Fib at 0.7450 paves the way for a challenge of trend line support-turned-resistance in the 0.7577-96 area.

An entry order to sell AUD/USD at 0.7603 was left pending last week and positioning has now changed such that the setup is no longer valid. At present, prices are too close to support to justify selling from a risk/reward perspective once again. A better setup will be sought on a rebound in the days ahead.


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Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7300, 0.7250 or 0.7200.

Daily price is on bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on Ichimoku chart. The price is on ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for direction.

If the price will break 78.16 support level so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break 80.64 resistance level so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
80.64	78.16
86.37	N/A

• Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 80.64 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch price to break 78.16 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

W1 price broke yearly Central Pivot at 0.7241 to below to the reversal for the primary bearish market condition. The price is testing 0.7062 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Instrument	S1 Pivot	Yearly PP	R1 Pivot
AUD/CHF	0.6075	0.7241	0.8451

Daily price is located below SMA with period 200 (200 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for the direction.

• If the price will break 0.9590 resistance level so the daily bullish reversal will be started.
• If price will break 0.9322 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
0.9590	0.9322
0.9871	N/A

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 0.9322 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 0.9590 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging bearish