AUD Technical Analysis

Risk sentiment continues to be more bullish and this pair has been a bullish beneficiary of that, although we saw that the big psychologically important round number at 0.7500 has so far been just too tough to crack.

AUD/JPY : 834 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Result

The weekly price is on ranging within Ichimoku cloud for the waiting for direction: the price is located inside 0.7362 resistance and 0.7031 support levels. If the price breaks one of those levels on close weekly bar so the bullish/bearish trend will be started, otherwise - ranging.

Weekly price is on ranging condition located inside Ichimoku cloud within 0.9749 resistance level and 0.9323 support level. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish reversal to be started together with 0.9749 resistance level to be broken to above.

If W1 price breaks 0.9749 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If W1 price breaks 0.9323 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

The Australian Dollar is testing familiar resistance above the 0.76 threshold against its US counterpart after prices found support above the 0.74 figure. The pair has been capped here since late June, with a sustained upward push this time around threatening April’s swing top.

A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7649 clears the way for a challenge of the 61.8% level at 0.7768, a barrier reinforced by the April 21 high at 0.7835. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 38.2% Fib at 0.7530 opens the door for a retest of the July 27 low at 0.7421.

Entering short seems premature despite the presence of significant resistance absent a tangible bearish reversal signal. On the other hand, taking up the long side is unattractive from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, opting for the sidelines seems most prudent until something more compelling emerges.

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Monthly price is located below Ichimoku cloud with the bearish market condition. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken to below with 72.38 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging bearish.

The AUD/USD has found support below the 0.7650 level (at the time of writing) after the pair formed a bearish daily technical pattern implying that a possible top might be forming.

Looking ahead, RBA meeting minutes and low levels of volatility are the major market themes for the pair in the short term, potentially highlighting the relatively attractive Aussie yield.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) August Meeting Minutes take center stage for the pair to start the trading week.
In their latest rate decision, the RBA opted to cut the cash rate to 1.50% from the prior 1.75%, in order to assist inflation returning to target.


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H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on secondary rally to be started on Friday with 0.7355 resistance level to be broken to above for the rally to be continuing. Alternative, the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

H4 price is located near and below 200 SMA for the ranging on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish market condition. If the price breaks 0.9889 resistance to above so the bullish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started, otherwise - bearish ranging near bullish reversal area.

The Australian Dollar faltered at familiar resistance near 0.77 against its US counterpart having rebounded as expected after forming a Morning Star candlestick pattern. The bounce saw a retest of broken trend line support-turned-resistance, with subsequent losses potentially marking longer-term down trend resumption.

A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7496 opens the door for a test of the 50% level at 0.7415. Alternatively, rebound above the 23.6% Fib at 0.7597 paves the way for another challenge of double top resistance near the 0.77 threshold.

Prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. Opting for the sidelines seems prudent for now, waiting for the pair to offer a better-defined opportunity to sell in line with the emerging bearish bias.

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