While OPEC may be winning in their battle to balance the global Oil market, it is not necessarily happening on the timeframe they would prefer. Naturally, it is not helpful that Shale production is at its highest levels since 2015. The U.S. Shale resurgence coupled with OPEC’s supply management continues to provide hope for Oil bulls. While Crude dropped ~3% on Wednesday, there is also likely to be volatility on expiration-position squaring is occurring
Prime Minister Theresa May announced that general elections would be held early, on June 8th of this year. The move was largely applauded as cogent political strategy in the effort of gaining a Conservative super majority to push through Brexit negotiations. And this very much may be the case; but given the volatility seen in global elections over the past year, it would seem that a bit of reservation should be due before any long-term prognostications are built based on early polling numbers.
-Since the start of the year, EUR/USD daily RSI has oscillated between 60 and 40 (nothing above 70 or below 30). This ‘RSI profile’ indicates range conditions. At some point, these range conditions will break and a trend will emerge. When is that ‘some point’? I don’t know but it’s probably soon because this feeling of peak frustration is typical before a sizeable move. Price wise, a short term trendline is being put to the test. If it breaks, then short
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday showed a gain of only 98K but the underlying metrics were strong with the headline unemployment rate falling to 4.5%, its lowest reading since mid-2007. The under-employment rate (U6) also saw an outsized downtick to the tune of 8.9% from 9.2%. Gold spiked on the release only to reverse sharply early in the US session.
Heading into next week, the trade remains vulnerable sub-1258 with interim support
Bulls of GBP/USD will be encouraged by a well-defined pennant formation on the daily chart (see below), a continuation pattern that points to further strength after the pair’s climb from 1.2113 on March 14 to 1.2613 on March 27. If the formation works as it should in theory, a break to the upside above 1.2465 in a few days’ time could lead to an advance equivalent to the height of the “flagpole” – that five-big-figure advance between March 14 and March 27 – taking it to 1.2965.
0 Currently Held Trophies
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