AUD Technical Analysis

I guess this pair made rather strong supportive level and will move between 0.7600 and 0.7800

Daily



-The sharp turn higher in AUDUSD raises the specter of additional range trading (between .7600 and .8100).
-2 lows near .7600 indicates potential for a short term double bottom and continuation of a broader range trade.

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Well, bears really dominate here. The pair is expected to go downward with small rollbacks.

We can see a small rollback from 0.7575 support level. So, if the pair break this level, it will go to 0.7455 support area.

• EURUSD March-May line is key
• GBPUSD 1.5460 serves as the pivot
• AUDUSD breakdown targets at .7143 and .6902

EUR/USD
Weekly

-“Since the March low, EURUSD has rallied sharply and declined sharply. The decline from the May high ended near the 61.8% retracement of the March-May advance. Daily RSI briefly poked above 70 at the May high and bottomed at 40 at the May low. These observations are consistent with a sideways market at worst and possibly the early stages of a larger rally. Even a test of the major breakdown level would result in a move to 1.20.”
-If the broader move is higher then EURUSD needs to hold above the line that connects the March and May lows. That line produced support following the weekend gap from 1.1171..

GBP/USD
Weekly

-“GBPUSD has broken above its 52 week average for the first time since September 2013. There are hurdles to clear from slope resistance (on various time frames) up to about 1.60. As such, a period of consolidation below 1.60 may be in store before an attempt on 1.64+ (2 equal legs from the April low).”
-If the decline from 1.5929 is nothing more than a pullback, then support should come in near 1.5460.

AUD/USD
Weekly

-“A slope confluence pinpointed the May high, which keeps the broader trend pointed lower. A long term level to be aware of in AUDUSD is the line that connects the 2001 and 2008 lows, which is near .7100. Be aware that the range that has been underway since April could persist for months and morph into a triangle or flat pattern.” The immediate picture is bearish as long as price is below .7740. Range expansion objectives yield .7143 and .6902.

NZD/USD
Weekly

-“One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”
-“A bearish wedge pattern has formed and yields an objective of .6607.” Look towards the mentioned objectives (.6607 and .5898) as long as price is below .7230. A daily close above .6923 would warn of a bottoming attempt.

USD/JPY
Weekly

-“A USDJPY breakout from the 6 month coil would open up 123.16-124.13 (high close from June 2007 and 2007 high). A measured objective from the pattern yields 125.72 and 128.12.”
-“USDJPY ended up trading to 125.85 (the mentioned 125.72 was the December range x .618 + the December high…basically a Fibonacci range expansion). Failure at long term uptrend resistance indicates potential for an important top to form. As I type, there are 2 days left in June and USDJPY is little changed for the month (month open is 124.10). In other words, a monthly doji could form…at a 20 year trendline (former support…may provide resistance now)!”
-June’s trade produced a monthly key reversal in USDJPY. Weakness below 121.90 would increase confidence of that a top of some importance has formed.

USD/CAD
Weekly

-“A broader range may in store. In fact, weekly RSI recorded its 2nd highest reading ever in Jan (only higher reading was in 1984). Other high periods led to extended periods of sideways trading. The failed run at a high volume level (1.2560) twice warns of additional range trading.”
-A 10 month trendline has supported USDCAD on recent dips. The development indicates potential for resumption of the broader bull move.

USD/CHF
Weekly

-“The break above near term slope this week indicates a short term behavior change. .9250 needs to hold in order to look higher. Watch for resistance near .9600 (50% from the March high at .9599 and 2 equal legs from the May low at .9621).”
-USDCHF dropped into .9250 this week (low was .9242) and promptly rocketed to .9500. Focus is higher as long as price is above .9242. The mentioned .9600 may provide resistance. Near term support is estimated at .9330. A break above .9600 would target .9913 (Fibonacci).


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• Smallest weekly USDJPY range since August 2014
• AUDUSD line off of 2001 and 2008 lows is near .7100
• NZDUSD Fibonacci confluence worthy of note at .64

EUR/USD
Weekly

-“The tightening range since the May high could compose a triangle within a larger advance from the March low.” A broader range does of course remain possible but with EURUSD breaking support this week, one must consider a more immediate bearish alternative. Comparisons with 1997 (pre euro trading but a calculated value is plotted) price behavior are striking. In both 1997 and 2015, the rate plunged out of the gate into March. Weekly RSI registered extremes the weeks of 3/3/97 and 3/9/15. Ensuing corrections stretched into the weeks of 5/19/97 and 5/11/15. In 1997, EURUSD dropped sharply into the week of 8/4 before reversing sharply to return to its May high. If something similar happens here, then EURUSD would trade down to about .9840 in August before trading back to 1.1450+.
-Near term, the rate has traded into resistance (old support).

GBP/USD
Weekly

-“GBPUSD has broken above its 52 week average for the first time since September 2013. There are hurdles to clear from slope resistance (on various time frames) up to about 1.60. As such, a period of consolidation below 1.60 may be in store before an attempt on 1.64+ (2 equal legs from the April low).”
-The ‘period of consolidation’ turned into a 6 figure decline from well-defined slope resistance. The rate has turned down from below the well-defined 1.5700. You might see support near 1.5359. A break below there would open up 1.4950-1.5100.

AUD/USD
Weekly

-“A slope confluence pinpointed the May high, which keeps the broader trend pointed lower. A long term level to be aware of in AUDUSD is the line that connects the 2001 and 2008 lows, which is near .7100. Be aware that the range that has been underway since April could persist for months and morph into a triangle or flat pattern.”
-“The immediate picture is bearish. Range expansion objectives yield .7143 and .6902.” The former level is joined by the trendline that extends off of the 2001 and 2008 lows. The decline from the 2011 high would consist of 2 equal legs (subdivided with the 2013 low and 2014 high) at .7084.


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• EURUSD long term channel?
• AUDUSD large outside day on Friday
• USDCHF testing Fibonacci level

EUR/USD Weekly

-Keep this comparison with the late 90s in mind as long as EURUSD respects bearish slope on the daily but also note that EURUSD continues to hold up at the line that extends off of the 2000 and 2001 lows. The slope of this line is similar to the slope of the line that connects the 1995 (synthetic rate) and 2008 highs. A parallel extended from the 2000 low creates a channel so don’t dismiss resistance breaks on the daily (from long term support).

GBP/USD Weekly

-“GBPUSD has broken above its 52 week average for the first time since September 2013. There are hurdles to clear from slope resistance (on various time frames) up to about 1.60. As such, a period of consolidation below 1.60 may be in store before an attempt on 1.64+ (2 equal legs from the April low).”
-The ‘period of consolidation’ turned into a 6 figure decline from well-defined slope resistance. The rate has turned down from below the well-defined 1.5700. You might see support near 1.5359. A break below there would open up 1.4950-1.5100.

AUD/USD Weekly

-“A slope confluence pinpointed the May high, which keeps the broader trend pointed lower. A long term level to be aware of in AUDUSD is the line that connects the 2001 and 2008 lows, which is near .7100.”
-“The immediate picture is bearish. Range expansion objectives yield .7143 and .6902.” The former level is joined by the trendline that extends off of the 2001 and 2008 lows. The decline from the 2011 high would consist of 2 equal legs (subdivided with the 2013 low and 2014 high) at .7084. Exceeding .7450 would indicate a change in behavior for Aussie.

NZD/USD Weekly

-“One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”
-“A bearish wedge pattern has formed and yields an objective of .6607.” Look towards the mentioned objectives (.6607 and .5898). The wedge objective has been reached as has the 2010 low at .6560. The next levels to be aware of are .64 (61.8% retracement of the 2009-2011 rally and 50% retracement of the 2000-2011 rally) and .60 (long term double top target).

USD/JPY Weekly

-“A USDJPY breakout from the 6 month coil would open up 123.16-124.13 (high close from June 2007 and 2007 high). A measured objective from the pattern yields 125.72 and 128.12.”
-“USDJPY ended up trading to 125.85 (the mentioned 125.72 was the December range x .618 + the December high…basically a Fibonacci range expansion). Failure at long term uptrend resistance indicates potential for an important top to form. As I type, there are 2 days left in June and USDJPY is little changed for the month (month open is 124.10). In other words, a monthly doji could form…at a 20 year trendline (former support…may provide resistance now)!”
-“June’s trade produced a monthly key reversal in USDJPY.” USDJPY has snapped back but a break above the long term resistance confluence (uptrend resistance and the line from the 1995 and 2005 highs) is still needed in order to minimize downside risk.

USD/CAD Weekly

-“A 10 month trendline has supported USDCAD on recent dips. The development indicates potential for resumption of the broader bull move.”
-“USDCAD has broken out. 11 year highs aren’t far off. The 2009 high is at 1.3062 (just below the 127.2% extension of the March-May range, which is at 1.3083).” 11 year highs have been reached. The next measured level is the 161.8% extension of the March-May range at 1.3399. The March high at 1.2834 is now support. Weakness below there would delay the immediate bullish picture until probably 1.2660.


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Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.7214
• Australian Dollar Drops Most in 4 Years, Breaks Range Floor
• Short Trade Triggered Aiming for Support Below 0.71 Figure

The Australian Dollar came back under pressure, putting in the largest daily decline in nearly four years against its US counterpart. The typically sentiment-geared currency had been slow to react as risk aversion began to sweep the financial markets but a belated response appears to be underway as broad-based turmoil bleeds into RBA policy bets.

A break of long-stubborn range support above the 0.72 figure has exposed the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7084 as the next downside barrier of significance. A daily close beneath that opens the door for a test of the 50% level at 0.6974. The 23.6% Fib at 0.7219 has been recast as near-term resistance, with a reversal back above that putting the 14.6% expansion at 0.7303 in focus once again.

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Talking Points:
The Australian Dollar made another strong push to the downside against its US namesakeafter a brief consolidative period. The pair issued the largest drop in two weeks, slumping to the lowest level in six months.

The next layer of support is now at 0.6880, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 76.4% level at 0.6748. Alternatively, a move back above support-turned-resistance at 0.6987, the 50% Fib, opens the door for a test of the 38.2% expansion at 0.7093.

We sold AUDUSD at 0.7214 and have since booked profit on half of the trade as well as moved the stop-loss to the breakeven level. The remainder of the trade will remain in play to capture any further downward momentum ahead.

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Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Aussie Dollar Bounce Stalls at Key Trend Line, Hints at Possible Downturn
• Opting to Pass on Short Position Pending Bearish Reversal Confirmation

The Australian Dollar moved higher against its US counterpart as expected following the appearance of a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Prices have now stalled at trend line resistance capping gains since mid-May, with a Doji-like candle hinting a rejection downward may be in the cards ahead.

Near-term support is at 0.7088, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis clearing the way for a challenge of the 23.6% level at 0.7041. Alternatively, a push above the 50% Fib retracement at 0.7173 – a barrier reinforced by the aforementioned trend line barrier – opens the door for a test of the 61.8% threshold at 0.7236.

Positioning is inconclusive for now. The candlestick setup points to indecision and may merely represent prices’ acknowledgement of an important technical ahead, marking a pause prior to an upside break rather than on-coming reversal lower. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now and wait for confirmation before pulling the trigger on a short position.

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