AUD Technical Analysis

Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Shorts Preferred
• Dark Cloud Cover Offered Warning Near Range-Top
• Harami Pattern May Find Limited Follow-Through

The Australian Dollar may struggle to recover further ground despite the emergence of a Harami pattern on the daily, given sellers remain nearby at 0.9320. A daily close above the critical resistance level would be required to confirm a bullish reversal, which would open the former range-top at 0.9440.

Harami May Find Limited Follow-Through




The four hour chart below reveals some hesitation by traders during the Asian session (denoted by a Doji candlestick near 0.9330). However, the pair has yet to see a bearish reversal pattern emerge, which would warn of a correction. This suggests the currency may consolidate over the session ahead.

Bulls Hesistate Near 0.9320/0.9330



By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

More...

Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Shorts Preferred
• Harami Offers Bullish Reversal Signal Near 0.9320
• H4 Demonstrates Absence of Key Bearish Patterns

The Australian Dollar threatens a push towards its range-top near 0.9440 following a Harami formation on the daily. However, some skepticism for a sustained recovery may be warranted by a Doji forming in intraday trade (indicating hesitation by the bulls). This suggests the recent recovery may be little more than a corrective bounce at this point.

Sustained Recovery Questionable




The four hour chart below reveals some hesitation by traders during the Asian session (denoted by a Doji candlestick near 0.9330). However, the pair has yet to see a bearish reversal pattern emerge, which would warn of a correction. Further gains would likely be met by selling pressure at the 0.9360 mark.

Bulls Hesitate Near 0.9320/0.9330



By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


More...

Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.9186
• Support:0.9085, 0.8955, 0.8826
• Resistance: 0.9195, 0.9264, 0.9365

The Australian Dollar appears poised to continue lower against the US Dollar after sliding to the weakest level in close to five months. A break below support at the bottom of a falling channel set from mid-June exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.9085, with a further push beyond that targeting the 50% level at 0.8955. Alternatively, a reversal back above the channel floor – now recast as resistance at 0.9195, opens the door for a test of the 0.9245-64 area marked by a rising trend line set from April and the 23.6% expansion.

A bounce following channel break has made for actionable risk/reward parameters and we will not enter short, initially targeting 0.9085. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 0.9287. We will take profit on half of the position and move the stop-loss to breakeven once the first objective is achieved.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
• Dragonfly Doji Signaled Hesitation Near 0.8660
• Climb Over 0.8815 Ceiling To Suggest A Base

AUD/USDhas bounced off the 0.8660 barrier after a Dragonfly Doji denoted reluctance from traders to lead the pair lower. However, the candlestick formation is not classed as a key reversal pattern. This casts some doubt over whether sentiment has truly shifted for the pair. A climb over the nearby 0.8815 hurdle would help suggest a base and may open a retest of the 0.8885 ceiling.

Dragonfly Doji Suggested Indecision Near 2014 Low



The return of the bulls was heralded by a Piercing Line pattern on the four hour chart. The leap over 0.8770 amid an absence of reversal signals may see the Aussie’s gains extend towards the 0.8830 ceiling.

Piercing Line Pattern Signaled Turning Point


By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


More...

Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
• Piercing Line Near 0.8660 Awaiting Confirmation
• Close Over 0.8815 Ceiling Needed To Suggest A Base

AUD/USD’s sharp rebound from the 0.8660 floor has generated a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Yet with strong selling pressure overhead the potential for the reversal pattern to generate a genuine shift in sentiment may be limited. A daily close over the 0.8815 hurdle would be required to suggest a base and could conceivably open a retest of the 0.8885 ceiling.

Key Reversal Pattern Emerges Near 2014 Low



The four hour chart suggests the Aussie’s recovery is already showing signs of exhaustion. An ensemble of Dojis, short body candles and a Hanging Man indicate that upside momentum is fading. This could open a revisit of the recent lows near 0.8660.

Recovery Shows Signs Of Exhaustion In Intraday Trade



By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


More...

Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
• Limited Follow-Through For Candlesticks On The Daily
• Awaiting Break From 0.8660 to 0.8900 Trading Range

AUD/USD remains trapped within its narrow trading band between 0.8660 and 0.8885 with an ensemble of Dojis evident on the daily. The candlestick formations indicate indecision from traders and leave a more constructive setup desired to offer a clearer technical bias.

Awaiting Break From Range As Intraday Swings Continue



Choppy trading conditions on the four hour chart have given rise to several candlestick formations. Yet follow-through remains lacking. This leaves a more constructive setup desired for playing the pair.

Price Compression Continues



By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


More...

USD/JPY

• USD/JPY is in consolidation mode below 119.00
• Our near-term trend bias is positive on the exchange rate while above 116.80
• The 119.00 area is interim resistance ahead of the next key Gann pivot at 119.50 and a long term retracement zone at 120.20
• The next turn window of significance is eyed early next month
• A close under 116.80 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 116.80.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	116.80	117.40	117.75	119.00	119.50

AUD/USD

• AUD/USD broke under the 50% retracement of the 2008-2011 advance yesterday to trade at its lowest level in 4-years
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below .8660
• The 127% extension of the early November advance at .8470 is the next key support of note
• A minor cyclical turn window is eyed around the end of the week
• A close above .8660 would turn us positive on AUD/USD

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under .8660.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
AUD/USD	.8435	.8470	.8500	.8540	.8660

More...

Talking Points

• Strategy: Short (From 0.8530), Stop: 0.8540 (Daily Close), Target: 0.8330
• Bullish Morning Star Pattern Taking Shape On The Daily
• Harami On The H4 Timeframe Offered A Recovery Hint

AUD/USD’s small rebound has produced a Dragonfly Doji on the daily which is threatening to evolve into a bullish Morning Star formation. The close of the current candle above 0.8450 and an ensuing up-session would be required to confirm the pattern and open the prospect of further gains. Yet until received negative cues are offered by a short-term downtrend, leaving shorts preferred.
AUD/USD: Morning Star Pattern Takes Shape


A Harami formation on the four hour chart offered an early hint at a potential intraday bounce for the Aussie. With no key bearish patterns in sight for the pair it may be open to further gains over the session ahead. This in turn offers a slight contrast to the less positive picture painted by the daily.

AUD/USD: Lacking Bearish Reversal Signals In Intraday Trade

4

By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


More...

• AUDUSD broadening bottom?
• USDJPY could slip to 116.50
• USDCAD nears multi-month floor

EUR/USD
Weekly



-“There is a long term level to be aware of. The line that extends off of the 2008 and 2010 lows is at about 1.0545 this week. The March 2003 low is at 1.0499.”
-“EURUSD finished the week above 1.08, indicating potential for a period of sideways trading in the coming months. The first important resistance stems from former slope support just below 1.13 over the next several weeks.”
-EURUSD is nearing the first 20 day high (1.1052) since 7/1/2014. In fact, it’s been 196 days since the last 20 day high. A new 20 day high would signal a major behavior change in EURUSD (from down to sideways).

GBP/USD
Weekly



-“A breakdown towards 1.4250-1.4350 may be underway.” The weekly reversal casts doubt on the call for 1.4350. Slope resistance that caught the February high near 1.55 could act as a magnet now. Daily and weekly divergence with momentum at price lows indicate the possibility for a turn higher.

AUD/USD
Weekly



-AUDUSD continues to trade between well-defined slope lines but beware of a possible broadening bottom (very difficult pattern to trade).
-Trade outside of the bearish upper parallel that has contained strength since late October would shift focus to a former support line (turned resistance in January) near .8180.

NZD/USD
Weekly




-“NZDUSD traded to the 61.8% retracement of its 3 year range today (.7929) and the next level of interest probably isn’t until the 2013 Labor Day gap at .7722. One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”
-If the major double top is going to prove successful, then the February high needs to remain in place. Risk of a double bottom has emerged that would yield an objective of .8038 although Kiwi would probably face pressure from longer term slope resistance near .7750.

USD/JPY
Weekly



-“Continue to favor a broad range as 119.80-120.70 as resistance and 116.40-117.10 as support. A move through either one of these zones would define target zones of 124-128 and 110-114.”
-“The lack of volume on strength since January warns that all is not well with the USDJPY uptrend.” The next support level is probably 116.50.

USD/CAD
Weekly



-“The contracting range indicates potential for a triangle from the high. Typically, a triangle will lead to a thrust in the direction of the preceding trend. The slight new high satisfies minimum requirements for a triangle thrust. USDCAD risks a return to 1.19 (old resistance line).”

USD/CHF
Weekly



-USDCHF has reversed from 9 year trendline resistance. Focus is on the median line (about .9300) that extends off of the 2012 high. This line crosses through highs in 2013 and the October 2014 low. The 52 week MA is near this line as well.


More...

I guess it's time to open a buy at 0.7740 with the stop-loss at 0.7730. My target is at 0.7820, as I'm sure there will be a pivot at around 0.7820-0.7840.