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AUD Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on AUD Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; The Australian Dollar is retesting support-turned-resistance marking the underside of a broken Descending Triangle chart formation in the 0.6978-0.7021 area. ...

          
   
  1. #111
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    Australian Dollar in Bear Market Rally

    The Australian Dollar is retesting support-turned-resistance marking the underside of a broken Descending Triangle chart formation in the 0.6978-0.7021 area. Prices bounced after finding support above the 0.68 figure, marking a bottom with the formation a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern and a break of trend line resistance set from the mid-April swing high.

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp-2.png


    A push beyond this barrier would cast doubt on the Triangle breakout’s validity as a bearish continuation signal. Neutralizing the near-term downside bias in earnest will probably require a step further to clear downward-sloping resistance capping gains since December 2018, now just above the 0.71 figure. However, zooming into the 4-hour chart hints that upside momentum may already be fading.

    AUDUSD put in a dramatic-looking Shooting Star candlestick on a test of resistance at the 0.7008. This coupled with overt negative RSI divergence suggests the move higher has run out of steam. Confirming that the broader downtrend has commenced calls for a break of upward-sloping support guiding gains from late-May lows, now at 0.6951.

    If a bearish reversal does materialize – cementing recent gains as corrective in the context of an ongoing decline – then there seems to be scope for significant follow-on weakness. Initial support lines up in the 0.6827-64 area, running from the January 2016 low to last month’s swing bottom. Triangle setup calls for deeper losses however, implying a measured move to the 0.67 figure.

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  2. #112
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    AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Bearish Trend To Be Resumed

    The Australian Dollar tracked lower after a retest of support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a bearish Descending Triangle chart pattern, as expected. Prices attempted to recover after breaking counter-trend support and even managed to set a higher swing top, but the effort fizzled. A bearish Evening Star coupled with negative RSI divergence now reinforces the case for a reversal.

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd1007.gif

    From here, the next significant layer of support seems to be in the 0.6827-65 area, marked by recent attempts to challenge trend-defining support at the January 2016 low. Securing a break below that on a daily closing basis probably opens the door for a challenge of the 2019 spike low at 0.6744. The outermost layer of downward-sloping trend resistance is now at 0.7088.

    Zooming out to the weekly chart, overall technical positioning continues to suggest the AUDUSD downtrend started in early 2018 has resumed following a period of congestion. While the support at 0.6827 is yet to be broken, measuring the width of the Descending Triangle pattern defining the digestive period prior to breakdown implies a steeper decline to test the 0.67 figure.

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  3. #113
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    Australian Dollar: Bullish Reversal

    Before looking at the undercurrent of the market, first we should appreciate the surface level technical churn that is drawing so much attention for the Australian Dollar. A daily chart of AUDUSD (below) shows the significant confluence of technical measures that we have recently seen come under significant stress – with some of the favorite quantitative elements of the pattern actually breaking. There are a few key technical structures on this chart that would individually carry significant connotation by themselves.

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd-d1-alpari-international.png


    However, in the hierarchy, the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern arguably holds more weight. The ‘neckline’ break just below 0.7050 fits a textbook assumption that a line has been crossed that can sometimes cue one of the market’s favorite scenarios: an early reversal with momentum potential. That said, if we reduce the attention on the H&S pattern, the trendline that shaped 13-months of bear trend was only temporarily surpassed with a close bac below the barrier on Friday. Furthermore, the 200-day moving average at 0.7090 as of Friday never fell. These are good additional milestones to add to conviction, but it can be argued that they are still standing.

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  4. #114
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    Australian Dollar Price Outlook

    It’s been a rough year so for AUD/USD and it didn’t start out very well, either. We can even extend that back to the beginning of 2018, as there hasn’t really been much for Aussie bulls to rejoice since the start of last year.

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd-d1-b2b-software-technologies.png


    After topping-out above the .8100 level in January of 2018, the pair dropped by more than 1,000 pips over the next nine months. A bit of support early in Q4 helped to stem the declines but, sellers were again ready to pounce after the 2019 open, aggressively enough that a flash crash showed in AUD/USD as prices tipped-down to .6750 to find a bit of support. That price, as it turns out, would continue to carry a pull in Australian Dollar price action to go along with a bit of historical intrigue.

    Sellers weren’t yet finished after the January flash crash and following a mild bounce, bears came back to drive the pair-lower over the next seven months, bringing us to today… That same .6750 level has helped to hold the lows over the past three weeks and sellers have not yet been able to leave it behind despite an aggressive test-below last week.

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    Weekly AUDUSD Technicals: possible bullish reversal

    AUDUSD is rising hard off the recent low, stringing together multiple positive days. It’s the strongest bounce since June, but like the first month of summer the initial push higher may prove to be short-lived. The key will be how momentum continues in the days ahead.

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    There is an immediate threat to the rally via the June low, and to a lesser degree the May low. A reversal in the vicinity of 6840/75 could present traders with an opportunity to short for a drop back towards the recent lows under 6700. Stops set above any swing-high that develops once a turn down begins.


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