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AUD Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on AUD Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; A strong Candian Dollar is emerging on the back of elevated crude oil prices and a weakening US Dollar on ...

          
   
  1. #101
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    Canadian Dollar Rate Forecast

    A strong Candian Dollar is emerging on the back of elevated crude oil prices and a weakening US Dollar on a soft CPI print for April. Now, the focus will turn to the US/CA 2Yr yield differentials to see if the CAD can make up even more ground. The key risk to further CAD strength appears to be overconfidence on a successful outcome to NAFTA talks and potentially rich pricing in of a May rate hike.

    May 10 Strong/Weak G8 FX Dashboard



    The strong/weak table above that I also share on FX closing bell helps to visualize where there is broad strength in the FX market. Currently, the strongest currency is the Canadian dollar based on an equally weighted 5-day % change with the US Dollar as a close second. The weakest currency after the RBNZ and their new Governor Orr provided a message of patience is the New Zealand Dollar.

    Price had appeared wedged between clean support at C$1.2803 and resistance at C$1.29 per USD. However, a swift move higher to C$1.2999 that was reversed provides swing traders with a strong resistance point to build a CAD long bias from. However, the US Dollar remains strong, so if CAD strength persists, GBP/CAD or EUR/CAD may be better plays.

    We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDCAD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short (emphasis mine.)

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  2. #102
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    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Support remains near 0.73

    The Australian Dollar continues to struggle for near-term direction near the 0.74 figure against its US counterpart but the dominant trend remains firmly bearish. The series of lower highs and lows established in late January from double top resistance above 0.81 continues to define price action.

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    From here, a daily close below chart inflection point support at 0.7335 opens the door for a challenge of double bottom support in the 0.7145-65 area.

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  3. #103
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    Australian Dollar Looks To RBA

    The Australian Dollar has lacked interest rate support compared to its big US brother for all of 2018, and that trend looks set to continue judging by another docile inflation print on Monday.

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    The Melbourne Institute’s monthly gauge showed a 0.3% rise on the month in September, for a 2.1% annualized gain. Admittedly that monthly rise was stronger than Augusts 0.1% uptick, but the yearly figure was unchanged. Moreover the ‘trimmed mean’ measure showed inflation up just 1.8% on the year. The Reserve Bank of Australia will give its October interest rate decision on Tuesday. It is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate at its now-venerable 1.50% record low once again.

    The Australian economy is not doing at all badly on many counts, notably overall growth and job creation. However, inflation remains stickily low, only having crept back into the RBA’s target band in this year’s second quarter -for the first time in over a year. Official inflation is running at 2.1%, the same rate as the Melbourne Institute’s current measure.

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  4. #104
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    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Downtrend

    The Australian Dollar has tepidly recovered to challenge trend resistance guiding it lower against its US counterpart since late January. That barrier is now in the 0.7136-0.7210 area. A daily close above that would neutralize the near-term bearish bias and initially expose the September's swing highs in the 0.7304-15 zone.

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd-h4-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    Alternatively, a turn back below the October 8 low at 0.7041 sees the next significant barrier at 0.6900, the September 2015 bottom. That is closely followed by the January 2016 trough at 0.6827.

    Shorter-term positioning favors the latter scenario. The four-hour chart reveals the appearance of negative RSI divergence on a test of inflection point resistance, hinting at ebbing upside momentum that might precede reversal. Confirmation on a break of counter-trend support is still pending however.

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  5. #105
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    AUDUSD - Daily Bearih Reversal

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd-d1-alpari-international-limited.png


    The AUDUSD price is now close to support from the lower bound of a rising channel that has been in place since late October. It is also sitting on the 20-day moving average and is not far above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, suggesting that any further near-term downside is limited.

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd-m5-alpari-international-limited.png


    This all suggests that a move closer to the top of the channel is a possibility in the next few days even though the 14-day relative strength index has so far failed to confirm the higher highs for the price over the past six weeks.

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  6. #106
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    AUD Prices May Fall Into 2019

    AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Slightly Bearish

    AUD Technical Analysis-audusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    The Australian Dollar continued its pursuit lower against its US counterpart this past week, failing to hold on to upside momentum towards the end of it as expected. This followed a break under a near-term rising support line. From this point until the end of the year, the outlook still remains bearish, but only slightly so. This is because AUD/USD struggled closing under the December/May 2016 lows on the chart below.

    Bearish technical arguments in AUD/USD can be further solidified if we get below 0.71452. Then, all that will be standing in the path of the Australian Dollar and 2+ year lows is support at 0.70211. In the event of a push higher, near-term resistance is at 0.72466. Climbing beyond that exposes the descending trend line from July. There was previously a false breakout above it earlier this month. Confirmation of an upside reversal would require closing above the highs it left, around 0.73935.

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