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Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUDUSD bullish breakout | 10th Dec 2021

The wandering nature of the euro, which we talked about in yesterday's review, is gaining confirmation this morning. The daily scale Marlin Oscillator begins chaotic movements along the zero line, approximately as it was in the third decade of October (gray rectangle). Therefore, we can take the price movement to 1.1415 and to 1.1170 equally probable. Taking into account the current downward trend, which has been going on since May, the probability of a downward trend is 55%. Of course, surpassing the target level of 1.1415 and the MACD line will direct the euro into medium-term growth.



On the four-hour chart, the price is being held by the MACD indicator line, the Marlin Oscillator has penetrated the bears' territory. If the price moves below yesterday's low (1.1278), it will also correspond to its decline below the MACD line, which will increase the probability of price movement to the lower target of 1.1170 to 75%.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Indicator Analysis; Daily review for December 13, 2021

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).
The market may move down on Monday from the level of 1.1314 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at 1.1246, the support line (blue bold line). When testing this line, the price may continue to move upward with the target at 1.1306, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line).



Fig. 1 (daily chart)
Comprehensive analysis:
- Indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- Volumes - down;
- Candlestick analysis - down;
- Trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:
The price may move down from the level of 1.1314 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at 1.1246, the support line (blue bold line). When testing this line, the price may continue to move upward with the target at 1.1306, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line).

Unlikely scenario: the price may start moving up from the level of 1.1314 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at 1.1354, the upper fractal (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may continue to move upward with the target at 1.1378, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis for EUR/USD on December 14, 2021

Trend analysis (pic. 1).
Today, the pair has dropped from the level of 1.1283 (the closing of yesterday's daily candlestick). It may reach the support level of 1.1249 (the blue bold line). When testing this level, it is likely to rebound to the retracement level of 23.6% - 1.1305 (blue dotted line). After that, the pair may climb higher.



Pic. 1 (daily chart).
Complex technical analysis:
- technical indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci retracement levels - down;
- trading volumes - down;
- candlestick analysis - up;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger bands - down;
- weekly chart-up.

Conclusion:
Today, the price from the level of 1.1283 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), moving down, will try to reach the support line - 1.1249 (blue bold line). When testing this line, it is possible to move up in order to reach the pullback level of 23.6% - 1.1305 (blue dotted line), most likely, after that the price will go further up.

Alternatively, the pair may try to resume the downward movement from the 1.1283 level (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target level of 1.1249. It also acts as a support (blue bold line). Having tested this level, the pair is likely to decline to the target level of 1.1227, the bottom line (red dotted line).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for December 15, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
German savings banks plan to allow clients to invest in leading digital currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum directly from their accounts.

Savings banks in German-speaking countries, also known as Sparkassen, are working on a pilot of the launch of an internal cryptocurrency wallet and exchange next year, a local business magazine reported.

The pilot project is subject to approval by the Sparkasse committees in early next year, while the banking association intends to develop related services in early 2022.

A spokesman for the German Savings Association confirmed the news.

"More and more consumers are interested in cryptocurrencies. One in ten customers of German savings banks claim to own or have owned cryptocurrencies. Given their expectations, the Financial Group of Savings Banks must also look at cryptocurrencies," he said.

The representative added that a group of experts from the German IT service provider S-Payment "is currently exploring ways to provide options to securely store cryptocurrencies in a wallet for selected customers."

Technical Market Outlook

The ETH/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of $3,666 as the bears approach the key short-term technical support. The bulls had manage to bounce back up locally towards the technical resistance located at $4,913 so far. In a case of a further move down, the next target is seen at the swing low at the level of $3,438. Moreover, in order to extend the bounce, bulls need to test and break through the short-term trend line resistance located at the level of $4,300 and head towards the level of $4,435. Despite the extremely oversold market conditions at the H4 time frame, the bears are still on control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,978
WR2 - $4,721
WR1 - $4,397
Weekly Pivot - $4,163
WS1 - $3,831
WS2 - $3,582
WS3 - $3,258

Trading Outlook:

The ABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated, so the next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 16, 2021

The dollar strengthened against the yen by 0.32% (35 points) on Wednesday following the US Federal Reserve meeting. The price broke the signal level of 113.96, crossed the indicator line of the daily scale balance, displacing the market interest in buying, and now its target is 115.80-116.15. The Marlin Oscillator supports this price plan by moving into an upward trend area.



On the chart of a four-hour scale, the price is in an upward trend by all indications: its development goes above the indicator lines, Marlin is in the positive area.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for December 17. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals. The pound has fully worked out the Bank of England's decision to raise the rate

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for December 17. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals. The pound has fully worked out the Bank of England's decision to raise the rate



The GBP/USD pair showed volatility equal to 135 points on Thursday. The growth of the British currency's quotes began at the European trading session. Thus, British traders worked out the results of the Federal Reserve meeting. The British currency rose a bit more, but then rolled back down, as the index of business activity in the UK services sector turned out to be weak (figure "1" in the chart). However, the downward movement did not last long, so the Bank of England decided to raise the key rate to 0.25%, which provoked a strong growth of the British currency to the resistance level of 1.3367. But with the release of American statistics, it could give the impression that it was she who provoked the growth of the dollar. But we believe that this is not the case, since the US data is hardly strong. As a result, the pair "flew" perfectly from side to side yesterday, and we just have to deal with the trading signals and understand how to work out all these movements. The first buy signal was formed when the pair overcame the Senkou Span B line and the extreme level of 1.3276. After that, a little more than 20 points were passed up, which allowed traders to set the Stop Loss to breakeven. According to this order, the purchase transaction was closed. Then the pair returned to the area of 1.3265 - 1.3276 and not very confidently, but bounced off it, forming another buy signal. However, it was formed exactly at the time when the Bank of England announced the results of its meeting, so traders could hardly have time to open a deal and set a Stop Loss on it in order to take a risk. Thus, it simply did not work out to work out this signal. But the pound still allowed traders to earn. The pair very quickly reached the extreme level of 1.3362, from which it bounced and formed a sell signal, after which an equally strong downward movement began and in the late afternoon the quotes dropped by about 45 points from the point of forming a sell signal. Thus, near the level of 1.3317, short positions could be closed manually. Although a little, but it turned out that one could earn yesterday.

GBP/USD 1H



On the hourly timeframe, the pound/dollar pair has been in the stage of strong growth for a whole day, but at this time it has started a new round of downward movement and may well return to its original positions, as well as the euro currency. Formally, there is an upward trend now, since the price settled above the descending channel earlier, but after two important meetings of the central banks, we need to let the market calm down a little and see where the pair will be at the end of this week. On December 17, we highlight the following important levels: 1,3186 - 1,3193, 1,3276, 1,3362, 1,3406. There are no levels below, as the price has not been so low for more than a year. The Senkou Span B(1.3265) and Kijun-sen(1.3272) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when searching for trading signals. On Friday, a report on retail sales for November will be published in the UK, but this report is likely to be overshadowed by two meetings that took place earlier this week. Thus, we are not waiting for the reaction of traders to this report. Nothing interesting is planned in the United States today.

We recommend you to familiarize yourself:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. December 17. Predictable Fed and passive ECB.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. December 17. An unexpected expected surprise from the Bank of England.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD for December 17. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals.
COT report

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.



The mood of professional traders became a little less bearish during the last reporting week (November 30 – December 6). Professional traders closed 3,600 sell contracts (shorts) and 2,100 buy contracts (longs) during the week. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders increased by 1,500 contracts. This is a very small change even for the British pound. In general, the mood of non-commercial traders continues to be bearish, and quite strong. We draw your attention to how low the green line of the first indicator is located in the chart above, which reflects the net position of the non-commercial group. Thus, unlike the euro, the pound's decline in recent weeks looks just logical: major players sell off the currency, and it falls. A further decline in the British currency is also now quite likely, but at the same time we draw your attention to the fact that the green and red lines of the first indicator have moved quite far from each other. This may indicate that the downward trend is drying up. Thus, we get a situation in which the euro currency is not moving down quite logically, and the pound may complete its movement in the near future. Thus, for both major pairs, we recommend waiting for the downward trend to end, but do not start buying until specific buy signals are formed.

Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading signals for CRUDE OIL on December 20 - 21, 2021: buy above 68,75 (2/8)



The oil price (WTI- #CL) kicked off this week with a bearish gap and approached the low of 68,75. The 2/8 Murray zone is strong support for crude oil. It is expected for the next few days to bounce above this level with targets at the 21 SMA located at 70,77.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded the outlook for oil demand by around 100,000 barrels per day for both 2021 and 2022, citing the emergence of the Omicron variant weighing on global oil demand.

A surplus in oil inventories of 1.7 million barrels per day could materialize in the first quarter of 2022, an oil surplus of 2 million barrels per day could materialize in the second quarter of 2022.

According to the IEA report, global supply could skyrocket by 6.4 million barrels per day next year compared to an increase of 1.5 million barrels per day in 2021.

In the medium term, oil could be under downward pressure. If inventories continue to increase in the market, the oil price could decline more to the psychological level of 50,00.

On the chart, we can see that oil is trading below the 200 EMA located at 73,55 and below the 21 SMA at 70,77. This technical data provides the negative outlook for oil, which we could expect to fall in the next few days towards 65,62 and even more to the low of December 2 at 62,40.

Our trading plan is to buy as long as it remains above 2/8 Murray, with the target at SMA of 21 at 70,77. Friday's gap at the close of Friday will be covered. A consolidation above 70.77 could boost the recovery of oil to the level of 200 EMA at 73,55.

Conversely, a daily close below 68,40 could quickly accelerate the WTI decline. The objective will be to cover the gap that remains open at 65,62 if the downward pressure prevails up to 62,40. The eagle indicator continues to give the negative signal. It is likely that it could continue the fall in the coming days.

Support and Resistance Levels for December 20 - 21, 2021

Resistance (3) 70,76
Resistance (2) 70,19
Resistance (1) 69,32

----------------------------

Support (1) 68,72
Support (2) 67,97
Support (3) 67,01

************************************************** *********

A trading tip for WTI on December 20 - 21, 2021

Buy above 68,75 (2/8) with take profit at 70,77 and 73,55 (200 EMA), stop loss below 68,30.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 21, 2021

The euro rose by 37 points on Monday, extending the lateral movement in time from the 7th. The Marlin Oscillator continued to form the pattern of the third decade of October (gray area). Then, after the sideways trend of the oscillator, the price fell, a similar outcome is likely in the current situation.



The four-hour chart shows a correctional price rebound from the support area on December 7 and 16, which was expected yesterday. The balance indicator line stopped the price's growth, while the oscillator's growth was stopped by its own zero line - the border with the bulls' territory. Now we are waiting for a repeated attack on the support area on December 7 and 16 (1.1225/40), surpassing it and further decline to the first target level of 1.1170, then to 1.1050.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 22, 2021



EUR/JPY is clearly in its final stages of the correction near wave 4/. All we need is a break above minor resistance at 129.64 to confirm that wave 4/ is completed and wave 5/ of 3 is in motion towards at least 135.04 and possibly even closer to the 139.70 target. This will complete wave 3 and set the stage for another wave 4 correction,. However, first we need to stay alert to signs that wave 4/ is completed and wave 5/ is in motion. The best thing that can happen is a break above minor resistance at 129.64 to confirm that wave 5/ is in motion.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 23, 2021

Yesterday, the euro decided to choose an upward direction, intending to complicate and lengthen the horizontal movement, which began on November 29-30. There are about 20 points until the resistance of the MACD line (1.1363), and without breaking the main scenario and its own sideways movement, it is likely that the price will turn down from this resistance. If it overcomes the 1.1363 level, the main scenario will change to a price reversal from the target level of 1.1415. But if the price settles above 1.1415, then an alternative scenario will take effect with the price rising to the target level of 1.1572 (the January 2019 high).



An interesting situation develops on the Marlin Oscillator. Yesterday's exit of the signal line from the rectangular area of consolidation, marked with a gray area, repeats the exit of the signal line from the same consolidation on October 28 - it is marked with a red oval. And, as you can see, after the signal line returned to the range, the price fell.



On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the MACD line, Marlin is confidently rising in the positive area - the situation is upward. Probably, the price will decide to test the strength of the resistance range of 1.1363-1.1415.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.