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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 23, 2021

EUR/USD
The European Central Bank's meeting from yesterday partially justified the expectations of investors - it was announced that the super-soft policy could last a little longer than planned due to the weak recovery and the new threat of the coronavirus. Our forecast came true in that on Thursday we expected increased volatility of the single currency - the trading range was 74 points.



We expect increased volatility today as well, as the signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart has almost come close to the zero line and the market itself is tempted to go up from the technical framework. But the statistical likelihood of decisive growth is less, the main technical indicators are still bearish-dominant. The first target for the main scenario is 1.1705, the second target is 1.1640. If the price still manages to overcome the target level 1.1850 (Marlin will already be in the growth zone), then the growth may continue to the MACD line in the area of the target level 1.1925.



The price made a false exit above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, this is a sign of a subsequent downward movement. The Marlin Oscillator is on the edge of growth territory. We are waiting for the price to drop to the first target at 1.1705.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 26, 2021

Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair volatility is subdued, which is typical for a Falling Wedge pattern in progress. The strong technical support had been established at the level of 1.1761 and the bears had failed to break through it many times. In a case of a breakout ot the upside, the next target is seen at the level of 1.1820 (the key short-term resistance) and 1.1850. The corrective cycle can be terminated if the level of 1.1883 is clearly broken. The rising momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1888
WR2 - 1.1859
WR1 - 1.1808
Weekly Pivot - 1.1781
WS1 - 1.1732
WS2 - 1.1699
WS3 - 1.1653

Trading Recommendations:
The down trend continues with a new swing low being made around the level of 1.1761. The key long term technical support is seen at 1.1704 and the Falling Wedge pattern is being made around this level. When this cycle is terminated, the up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.2350 (high from 06.01.2021).



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 27, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro rose by 33 points, while the Marlin oscillator entered the growth zone on the daily chart. Now the price can boldly attack the nearest target level of 1.1850. Consolidating above it will mean that the price is ready to attack the MACD line, moreover, at the point of its intersection with the target level of 1.1925. Consolidating above the level opens the prospect of growth at 1.2050 - to the low on May 13. It could possibly decline after the price breaks through the July 21 low at1.1752. In this case, the Marlin Oscillator will be able to exit the rising channel and move down.



The price has settled above the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Consolidating below it, below the level of 1.1800, introduces the price into the uncertainty zone up to the level of 1.1752. This uncertainty can be set by the expectations of market participants regarding the results of tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting. With the price breaking through yesterday's peak at 1.1817, it could continue to rise to 1.1850.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 28, 2021

EUR/USD Before today's Federal Reserve meeting, the euro strengthened the reversal trend. Yesterday, another such sign of a reversal was a wide-range day of 71 points with a final rising close. The Marlin oscillator continues to grow in positive territory within its own channel. The price's exit above the target level of 1.1850 will confirm the reversal and send the price to the target level of 1.1925, which is approaching the MACD indicator line.



It is very likely that investors strongly doubt the tightening of the Fed's rhetoric even after good economic data. The main reason for such doubts is the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the United States. Also on the agenda is a new problem for the United States – the completion of the legally approved deadline for increasing the national debt. Last week, the Minister of Finance, Janet Yellen, has already submitted a letter to Congress asking for an early resolution of this issue due to increased economic uncertainty (due to the pandemic) and a high proportion of retiring public sector workers. As usual, raising the national debt limit is a favorite object for trading between the chambers of Congress and this is not good for the dollar.



On the four-hour scale chart, the price settled above the balance and MACD lines after a false short-term departure under them. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator in this struggle turned exactly from the zero line up. We are waiting for the development of the upward movement.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 29, 2021

EUR/USD
As a result of yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, the euro grew by 26 points, having reached the target level of 1.1850 as the upper shadow. Consolidating above it will lead the signal line of the Marlin oscillator to exit the rising channel also upwards. The 1.1925 target will open - historically the level is not very strong, but the MACD indicator line is approaching it, which will strengthen it.



The euro's growth, however, occurred on the FOMC signal of an impending tightening of monetary policy, of course, provided that economic indicators continue to show growth. The Fed even allowed inflation to rise above its predicted values. Trading volumes were about the same as on Thursday last week, when the European Central Bank met, and less than on the 8th, when ECB President Christine Lagarde made a statement about the increase in inflation target. One gets the impression that the big players are playing with the euro as a giveaway, probably, the US does not need a strong dollar for the period of uncertainty with the issue of raising the government debt threshold. Today there will be data on US GDP for the second quarter - a forecast of 8.5% against 6.4% in the first quarter and applications for unemployment benefits will come out - a forecast of 380,000 against 419,000 a week earlier. If the euro continues to rise against such data, then this growth, whatever its dynamics, will not be long in time - 4-6 weeks.



The euro has settled above the indicator lines on the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is growing in the zone of positive values, there are no reversal signs.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 30, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday's economic data played into the hands of strategic buyers of the euro - even on average volumes, the single currency gained 43 points - this is the largest daily growth of the week. Unemployment in Germany in July decreased from 5.9% to 5.7%, the index of manufacturing sentiment in the euro area for the current month increased from 12.8 to 14.6, the harmonized consumer price index in Germany increased from 2.1% y/y up to 3.1% y/y. And in the US, GDP for the second quarter showed an increase of 6.5% against the forecast of 8.5% and the previous figure was revised down from 6.4% to 6.3%. US reports were even summed up by applications for unemployment benefits - the weekly figure was 400,000 against the forecast of 380,000. Today there are data on expenses and income of individuals for June. Revenues are forecast to decline 0.3% after the previous -2.0%, expenses may increase 0.7% versus the previous 0.9%. Such data is able to push for the euro's growth.



The price stopped at the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left its own channel upwards, now, after a short break, the price will attack the important resistance at 1.1925, consolidating above which opens the target at 1.2050.



The situation is completely upward on the four-hour chart. The Marlin Oscillator has turned down, but this appears as a discharge of the indicator before further growth. The correction limit is seen at the level 1.1850.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 2, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro fell 18 points last Friday, likely on partial closings since the start of the week, as trading volumes were above average. On the daily scale chart, the price found the indicator line of the balance with rather strong resistance in the current situation, the decline reached the target level 1.1850.



The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is on the upper channel line. If this signal line returns to the channel, the previous exit will become false, and then the lower channel line may be reached, which will lead the euro to return to last month's high. Now this option seems unlikely, but for sustainable growth, investors still have to switch from risk aversion to risk buying, which means buying back the euro against positive US data and following the stock markets, if, of course, their growth continues. In this regard, today will be an indicative day. US construction spending is expected to rise 0.4% in June, while the July ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 60.6 to 60.9. If on the positive data the euro shows growth, then overcoming the target level of 1.1925 will be a matter of the near future, and then the price will go to the target level of 1.2050 - to the low on May 13.



On a four-hour scale chart, the price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator begins to reverse from the zero line upward after the last session has been discharged. The upward trend is not broken.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 3, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the US PMIs came out mixed, not very convincing, and failed to provide the indicator of investor risk sentiment that we expected. The final Markit Manufacturing PMI for July was raised from 63.1 to 63.4, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI was even worse: 59.5 versus 60.6 in June. As a result, the euro ended the day at the close of Friday - no price change. The next event that can show the risk sentiment of the big players will be Friday's employment release from the Labor Department. The forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector is 880-920,000, the unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.9% to 5.7%. The euro's growth at such powerful indicators will undoubtedly set a medium-term weakening of the dollar in all markets, the fall of the euro will show the resilience of investors to the expectation of a tightening of monetary policy.



The price does not dare to go beyond the balance indicator line on the daily scale chart, which will lead it to fight the resistance of the MACD line (1.1925 and higher). Also, the price is still hesitating to overcome the lower level of 1.1847 (low on June 18), so that, after consolidating below it, returns to the downward track. This is hindered by the growing Marlin oscillator.



The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways along the zero neutral line on the four-hour scale. The MACD line (1.1834) is below the level of 1.1847, so consolidating below the price level without settling below the MACD line will not be enough for a confident bearish signal.

Thus, the euro is in a neutral situation, investors went into standby mode. Although, if they still have an intention to take risks, then the unhurried growth of the euro may last until the very release of data on US employment. Doubt in the presence of such sentiments is caused by yesterday's drop in stock indices (S&P 500 -0.19%), however, this may just be a reaction to vague PMI.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 4, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro situation has not changed over the past day, the technical picture has been preserved in all its details. On a daily scale, the price is below the balance indicator line and slightly above the target level of 1.1847.



The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways in an upward trend area. Consolidating below 1.1847 will put the euro back on track for medium-term weakening. For the growth to develop, the price needs to settle above the MACD line and the target level of 1.1925. Market participants are awaiting Friday's US employment data.



The price is above both indicator lines on the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone, the overall situation is neutral. For the development of a downward movement, the price must go below the MACD line (1.1837), that is, even below the level of 1.1847.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on August 5, 2021

AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar fell 15 points under pressure from the US dollar, which gained 0.22%. The aussie has not lost the upward sentiment - the Marlin oscillator has settled in the upward trend zone.



Reaching the target level of 0.7474 in the area of the trend line of the price channel is still the main scenario. A lot of work needs to be done to restore the decline - to go down below the level of the lower line of the price channel at 0.7333.



The price managed to stay above the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is currently attacking the border of the growth area, the trend is upward.

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