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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on June 24, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar took on higher commitments yesterday and bravely stepped out of the embedded price channel line. The Marlin oscillator keeps the market interest in buying yesterday and today in a growing position.



Our main scenario is a downward one, but if the price overcomes yesterday's high, it is possible that the growth will continue to the level of 0.7647 - to the low on June 3. A price return below the price channel line below 0.7552 will return the price to a downward mood. The closest target will be the level 0.7490.



On the four-hour chart, the price met an obstacle to growth from the side of the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is flat, but declining. We are waiting for the price to settle below the level of 0.7552 and a further decline to 0.7490.

According to the alternative scenario, after consolidation above 0.7600, growth to 0.7647 is possible.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 25, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the economic data for Germany was better than expected, and for the US it was worse. And only the pound's decline by 40 points at the end of the day after the Bank of England's neutral meeting kept the euro in the previous day's range. Today, the dollar has the opportunity to rectify the situation in its favor if the data on consumer spending (forecast for May 0.4%) and the indicator of consumer sentiment for June from the University of Michigan (forecast 86.4 versus 82.9 a month earlier) do not turn out to be disappointing.



The euro is still in the upward mood on the daily chart - consolidation lasts for the third day, the Marlin oscillator continues to rise. If the price rises above the signal level of 1.1970 - which is the high on Wednesday, then the growth may accelerate towards the resistance of the MACD line in the area of the 1.2070 mark.



On the four-hour chart, the price tries to rise above the MACD indicator line for the second time. The second attempt may turn out to be successful, and then it is worth waiting for the price to breakthrough the area above the reference level so we can carefully open a long position.

But the main scenario is still the downward trend. The price needs to settle below the lower border of the two-day consolidation at 1.1912 and the path to the nearest target of 1.1855 will become open. We are waiting for the development of events.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 29, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro lost only a few points on Monday, but this showed the main thing - the intention to continue the decline to the first target of 1.1855, and then, if it overcomes this support, to strengthen the fall to 1.1705.



Doubt is shown only by the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart, it never formed a reversal. Perhaps even before Friday's US employment report, macroeconomic data may not come as a pleasant surprise. For an alternate growth scenario, the price needs to settle above the signal level of 1.1970. In this case, the price may subsequently try to reach the MACD indicator line in the area of 1.2060.



The price is above the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is on the zero line. For a downward signal, the price needs to go below these indicator lines, which coincide with yesterday's low at 1.1902. Perhaps it is this support that is felt by Marlin on a daily scale and keeps the market's interest in buying.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on June 30, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar dropped 54 points on Tuesday and so it settled below the line of the descending price channel (0.7542). The Marlin oscillator is going down in the negative area, the price has 25 points left before moving below the nearest target level of 0.7490. After that, the target range 0.7400/10 had become active.



The price settled below the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, below the level of the price channel at 0.7542, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative area with no signs of a reversal. We are waiting for the price to move down even further.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for June 30, 2021



Technical outlook:
EURUSD is still testing its support trend line since March 2020 lows around 1.1885/90 today. It needs to break into the sell zone to accelerate further lower towards 1.1700 going forward. A bullish bounce here might produce a pullback rally towards 1.2030 levels before reversing lower again. Overall structure continues to remain bearish until prices stay below 1.2266 levels.

EURUSD is trading near the intraday low around 1.1885/88 at this point in writing and is expected to break lower towards 1.1730/40 soon. Immediate support is seen through 1.1700 while resistance is fixed at 1.2266 levels respectively. In case of a gartley being produced here, the counter trend rally could reach 1.2000 handle, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent down swing.

EURUSD potential remains to drop towards 1.1300 at least in the next few weeks time. It could further extend lower through 1.0636 mark and attempt a break below its March 2020 lows.

Trade plan:
Remain short for now, stop @ 1.2266, target is @ 1.1300.

Good luck!

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 2, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, as expected, the euro spent the whole day at the target level of 1.1855 in anticipation of today's data on US employment. The data is expected to be good: the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change (new jobs in the non-agricultural sector) for June is 700,000, the unemployment rate may drop to 5.7% from the latest data of 5.8%. Also, the volume of industrial orders for May is forecast to grow by 1.6%. We are waiting for the price to fall even further and reach the target level of 1.1705.



The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the H4 chart was flat yesterday. The short-term exit above the MACD line once again showed the falsity of such an intention and strengthened the downward trend. We are waiting for the development of events.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 5, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar appears to have overreacted to the weakness in the US dollar on the day the US employment data was released. AUD/USD gained 57 points. The embedded price channel line at 0.7540 is close to a retest.



The general trend for the pair, of course, remains downward, but settling above 0.7540 can still fuel the correction. Under favorable circumstances, it is possible for the aussie to rise to the June 25 high at 0.7618.

But external circumstances are not yet favorable. Last Friday, different brands of oil closed mixed, iron ore fell 0.6%, and this morning, Pacific stock indexes show mixed dynamics. In such a situation, we should wait until Tuesday, when US investors return to work, and track their further intentions.



The price settled above the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator, after its own consolidation, went up into the zone of positive values. Today, the aussie might move sideways.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 6, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro showed a symbolic decline by 2 points on Monday, as US players were absent on the market. Technically, this highlighted the weakness of convergence on the daily chart, which could easily be transformed into any other formation.



On the other hand, the price has also formally settled above the target level of 1.1855, and if the price rises steadily today, the convergence may change its appearance into a more readable one. If the gain is not strong, then the Marlin oscillator may form a sideways range, as shown by the gray area on the chart.



Marlin is already on the horizon, and on the zero line on the four-hour chart. The price settled above the MACD line, but below the balance line (red indicator).

In general, the probability of price growth is 55%. With the price moving below the MACD line at H4 (1.1845), the probability of a further decline to the target level 1.1705 will increase to 65%. One can speak of a confident decline from the euro only after the price has surpassed the July 2 low of 1.1806.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 7, 2021



EUR/JPY has seen a deep correction in red wave ii, but should stay above the low of red wave i at 130.04 for the next rally higher towards the long-term target at 135.41 where wave 3/ will be 161.8% the length of wave 1/.

Short-term we would like to see a break above minor resistance at 131.66 as a confirmation that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii higher towards 135.41 is in motion.

Under this count support at 130.04 can't be broken or a revision of our bullish count will be needed.

Trading recommendation:
Buy EUR and place you stop at 130.00 for a rally towards 135.41

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 8, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro was declining during the day, in anticipation of the publication of the FOMC minutes and at the time it took place, the single currency practically already took into account the expected tonality in the price. There were no surprises, the Federal Reserve expects further improvement in the labor market and does not show any worries about inflation.



As a result, the convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart continues to form (in the event of a stronger fall in the price, Marlin would go down more clearly). Nevertheless, the main scenario remains the development of the 1.1705 target level, and the slowness of the oscillator indicates the potential for a larger decline in the euro - to the second target level of 1.1640.



On a four-hour scale, the price reversed to the downside from the MACD indicator line. Here, too, there is still an opportunity to further the formation of convergence. But similar to the situation on the daily chart, the slowness of the oscillator towards a reversal preserves the potential for a deeper decline into the oversold zone.

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