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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 9, 2021 EUR/USD On Tuesday, the euro fell to the lower ...

      
   
  1. #941
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 9, 2021

    EUR/USD On Tuesday, the euro fell to the lower limit of the accumulative range from May 18, which formally increases the likelihood of going down from it, but tomorrow the European Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting, it will be very important, if only due to the fact that it will take place in its traditional form, and not online. The investors' main issue of concern is the change in the volume of the PEPP program. The euro may remain in a neutral range as it awaits the ECB meeting.



    The probability of a triple divergence of the price with the oscillator remains. And here the rapid growth in the 1.2272-1.2310 range may take place precisely at the ECB meeting. Another scenario assumes a decline to the target level of 1.2051 - to the low on May 13. Further, a decline to the lower border of the price channel is possible - to the area of 1.1925.



    The Marlin oscillator is already lying on the horizon on the four-hour chart, which suggests a sideways price movement in anticipation of tomorrow's event. A signal for growth will be the price exit above the MACD line (1.2210).

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  2. #942
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 10, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the euro was growing at the moment by 46 points, but the final daily growth was 8 points - investors were waiting for today's decision of the ECB on monetary policy and the US CPI indicators for May. The forecast for the general CPI is 4.7% y/y against 4.2% y/y in April, the core CPI is expected to be 3.4% y/y against 3.0% y/y a month earlier. Investors, of course, are waiting for an increase in inflation indicators, so the EUR/USD pair is visually preparing to move out of the accumulation range to the downside. The likelihood of a triple divergence is still there, as news from the ECB will be released first.



    But in general, whether another price surge will take place or not, we are waiting for the euro to reach the target level of 1.2051. Surpassing the level makes way for the 1.1925 target - the lower border of the rising price channel.



    On the four-hour scale, the price turned downward from the MACD line yesterday, piercing it. This is still a sign of a further decline in prices from current levels. The Marlin oscillator is breaking into a downward trend zone.

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  3. #943
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    Forecast for GBP/USD on June 14, 2021

    GBP/USD

    In Friday's fall, the pound pierced the support of the MACD indicator line on the daily chart with a lower shadow, and today the market opening was below it. This is a sign of further price declines. The Marlin oscillator has reversed from its own zero line separating the growth zone from the decline zone and is now deepening below. The goal of further movement of 1.1004 is the low on May 13 and the high on March 12.



    On the four-hour chart, the price has completed a false exit above the MACD line for the fifth time in a row. Taking into account the situation on the daily scale, this was probably the last time, now the MACD line at 1.4142 looks even stronger.

    The Marlin oscillator is in its lower half, we are waiting for the development of a downward movement.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  4. #944
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    On Monday, as expected, the euro corrected slightly to the upside and spent the day in the range of expectations for today's US data on manufacturing inflation, retail sales and industrial production. Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will make a decision on monetary policy and investors believe that today's good indicators (if they turn out to be such, and which the Fed members already know), will be able to influence the final summary in the direction of tightening. In terms of rhetoric, of course.





    The price is below the balance indicator line on the daily chart, but above the MACD line, which in its semantic meaning defines the price position as neutral with an impending attack on the support of the MACD line (1.2082). The bears' main target is the 1.2051 level, surpassing it would open the next target at 1.1934 - the lower border of the price channel of the weekly timeframe.





    On the H4 chart, the line of the Marlin oscillator begins to smoothly turn downward. Perhaps yesterday's peak at 1.2131 is the upper border of the current consolidation.

    We are waiting for the attack on the support of the MACD line of the daily timeframe in the area of the 1.2082 mark.


    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on June 16, 2021

    So the decisive day has come, determining the fate of the euro in the medium term. Today, the Federal Reserve meeting will take place, at which the beginning of a discussion on changing monetary policy can be announced. Yesterday's US report came out very well by the way: industrial production increased by 0.8% in May against the forecast of 0.6%, the producer price index (PPI) for the same period added 0.8% against expectations of 0.5%, the base PPI added 0.7%. Against this background, the trade balance of the euro zone in April showed a deterioration from 18.3 billion euros to 9.4 billion. And it is even surprising that yesterday the euro did not surpass the support of the MACD line on the daily chart (1.2084).



    Nevertheless, the price did not overcome the resistance of the red balance indicator line, which gives an indication of the downward trend's control over the situation. Today we expect to overcome the target level 1.2051. A little later, the price may reach the lower border of the price channel at 1.1942.



    There is no additional information on the four-hour timescale, unless the price also rose above the balance line and Marlin did not leave the downward trend zone.


    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  6. #946
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    Forecast for GBP/USD on June 17, 2021

    The British pound dropped 91 points on Wednesday, breaking the first target of the bears at 1.4004. Now the second target (1.3918) is open - the high on April 6. The 1.3800 level is the low on May 3.



    The price settled below the target level of 1.4004 on the four-hour time scale, the Marlin oscillator is discharging after a quick move into the oversold zone. Upon completion of the correction, we expect the price to further decline to the specified target level of 1.3918.




    [B]*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.[B]

  7. #947
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURNZD approaching descending trendline resistance! Drop Incoming!



    Price is approaching 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and descending trendline resistance. A short term drop below our 1st resistance at 1.70255 towards 1st support at 1.69560 could be possible. Stochastic is testing resistance where price pulledback in the past.

    Trading Recommendation
    Entry: 1.70255
    Reason for Entry:
    78.6% Fibonacci retracement, descending trendline resistance
    Take Profit: 1.69560
    Reason for Take Profit:
    -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, Graphical overlap support
    Stop Loss: 1.70583
    Reason for Stop Loss:
    Graphical swing high resistance

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  8. #948
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June!



    Technical Market Outlook:
    The EUR/USD pair has been seen going lower again after the breakout to the downside from the consolidation zone. The next target for bears is the long term trend line support around the level of 1.1795 (marked as orange line on the daily time frame chart). Any violation below this line would trigger another wave down towards the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1704. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of 1.1986.
    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.2305
    WR2 - 1.2222
    WR1 - 1.2007
    Weekly Pivot - 1.1927
    WS1 - 1.1702
    WS2 - 1.1620
    WS3 - 1.1401

    Trading Recommendations:
    The distribution cycle had been completed and now the market is on the move down. The key long term technical support is seen at 1.1704. When this cycle is terminated, the up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.2350 (high from 06.01.2021).

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  9. #949
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 22, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro gained 55 points from the target level it achieved on Monday and is currently showing a decline this morning. Perhaps,it might surpass the first price support on the way to the mid-term decline of 1.1855 by today or tomorrow and then the euro will continue to decline. The next target is 1.1705 - the March 31 low. The Marlin oscillator on the daily scale chart seems to have fallen deep enough that the rate of decline might slow down.



    On a four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator shows an intention to turn around from its own zero line, which characterizes yesterday's growth as a moderate correction. Exit above Friday's high at 1.1926 will bring the oscillator into the zone of positive values. This pattern will allow the price to strengthen the corrective growth, possibly even to the MACD line to the level of 1.1990, where the H4 shows a micro consolidation from the 17th.



    The continuation of the decline is considered as the main option, as it has a 55% probability. The deepening of the correction to 1.1990 is accepted as an alternative, but it provides the opportunity to enter the market with short positions at the best price.

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  10. #950
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on June 23, 2021



    The euro ended with an increase of 22 points on Tuesday. This morning the price is going down, the Marlin oscillator on the daily scale is starting to turn down.

    Outwardly, the price looks in a neutral state and there are reasons for this - investors are waiting for the release of the PMI of the eurozone and the United States for the current month and sales of new homes in the United States in May. The data is expected to be mixed, so investors are in no hurry to take succeeding actions. Nevertheless, according to our system of indicator lines, the price should not (conditionally) return to the MACD line (1.2070) in the near future, the level of 1.1705 is still the target.




    The price is developing along the signal line of 1.1926 on the four-hour chart, but this line seems to be out of place here, in fact, the price is ignoring it. Like yesterday, the probability of the MACD line working out in the area of the 1.1984 level remains. The Marlin oscillator is in a neutral situation. Moving below the target level of 1.1855 opens the target at 1.1705.


    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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