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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 24, 2023

EUR/USD:
The euro is falling for significant reasons - the imminent increase in the debt limit (which will lead to a massive influx of dollars from outside to purchase US government bonds) and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates than what the markets currently expect (yesterday, Neel Kashkari and James Bullard mentioned raising rates above 6% as inflation persists).



However, from a technical standpoint, the situation is ripe for a correction. On the daily chart, a small weak convergence between price and the Marlin oscillator is forming. The price has not reached the embedded line of the price channel (green line), creating a dual situation: either the inclined support will be tested today, or the price will go up to 1.0804 and only after that will it attack 1.0736, surpassing the price channel line. A drop below 1.0736 opens the target at 1.0625, the lower embedded line of the price channel.



On the 4-hour chart, the price is falling below both indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is declining in bearish territory. The resistance level at 1.0804 is reinforced by the MACD indicator line here. Yesterday's trading volumes were at average May levels, which does not provide a basis for an immediate breakthrough of support. Perhaps a small correction will allow investors to accumulate short positions.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 25, 2023

EUR/USD:
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair tested the resistance level of 1.0804 and closed the day on the lower embedded line of the price channel. The convergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator continues to influence the pair on the daily chart, and the pair could enter a correction from the support level of 1.0736 (the high of December 15, 2022).



If the price consolidates below the aforementioned level, the convergence will cease to exist, and the price will continue to move towards the next price channel line around 1.0625. The intermediate support is at the level of 1.0692, the high of March 1.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is falling below both indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has a small probability of forming a double convergence (exactly when the price tests the level of 1.0736), after which the price may undergo a corrective rise towards the MACD line, which is slightly below the resistance level of 1.0804. In addition, Marlin may easily break its own generating line and continue to fall along with the price.



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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 26, 2023

GBP/USD:
Yesterday, the pound opened and closed below the MACD indicator line. The downward movement may move towards the target range of 1.2125/53.



The Marlin oscillator has slowed down and shows an intention to move up, which may indicate preparation for a correction to the MACD line (1.2400). If the correction does not occur and the support at 1.2273 is breached, we expect the price to reach the specified target range.



On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has a good potential for a decline. The price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines. If a correction does occur (while awaiting agreements on the U.S. debt limit), the upper limit of the correction is also the MACD indicator line at 1.2400.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 29, 2023

EUR/USD:
Last Friday, the euro traded within a range of 56 pips, closing the day at the opening level. The resistance of the target level at 1.0736 and the embedded line of the price channel were tested. Today, the price is not willing to repeat what it did on Friday, but the small convergence with the Marlin oscillator indicates that the price doesn't intend to enter a correction. Today is a holiday in the US and the UK, so we do not expect any significant or qualitative changes in the technical picture.



The threat of a US default (or a budget shutdown) has also passed, as the White House and Republicans have reached an agreement on a 2-year debt limit. The agreement will be passed by the lower chamber tomorrow. If the price consolidates above 1.0736, it may develop a corrective rise towards 1.0804, while falling below 1.0692 would allow the price to target the bearish level of 1.0628.



On the four-hour chart, the price failed to consolidate above 1.0736 on Friday, and this morning it has already settled below it, supported by the downward-turning Marlin oscillator. The price is trying to either stay above 1.0692 or remain in a sideways movement. The first strong resistance for the corrective movement is represented by the MACD line at 1.0756.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2023

EUR/USD: Yesterday, when the US and UK had a holiday, the euro cautiously tested the resistance of the nearest descending price channel line and ended the day lower. It appears that the bears are struggling to maintain pressure on the quotes. According to our main scenario, when the US government makes the final decision to raise the debt ceiling (tomorrow, as the lower house of Congress approves it today), the dollar will advance against all global currencies. However, this scenario has a visible pitfall - the desire of major players to eliminate premature dollar bulls. In this case, the euro may rise to the target level of 1.0804.



On the other hand, if investors expect long-term strengthening of the dollar, initiating a move with a preliminary upward price spike of just one figure may not be a very effective endeavor. Historically, false movements of the euro against news of debt limit increases have occurred intermittently. It is difficult to predict how things will unfold today. Even from a technical perspective, the small convergence on the daily chart indicates both a potential minor correction and its possible breakdown due to strong news.



On the four-hour chart, the price is getting closer to the MACD indicator line, from which a downward reversal may occur, or with the assistance of the Marlin oscillator, which is ready to enter the positive territory, the price could climb to the target level of 1.0804 (February 14 and May 24 highs). The MAcD line (1.0738) coincides with the price channel line on the daily chart, making it a strong level. There is a certain probability that the euro will decline without a preliminary corrective rally.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 31, 2023

EUR/USD
On Tuesday, the euro went through a correction, defined by the convergence with the Marlin oscillator. The price once again tested the target level of 1.0738 and the embedded line of the descending channel. The signal line of the oscillator has entered its own descending channel.



According to the main scenario, the price can now consolidate below the support level of 1.0692 and continue moving towards 1.0620, which is the lower embedded line of the price channel. The alternative scenario is simple - after settling above 1.0738, a test of the target resistance at 1.0804 is possible. This would extend the correction.



On the four-hour chart, the price has returned below the MACD indicator line after a false breakout above it. The Marlin oscillator has moved into the negative territory after briefly staying in the positive area. The trend is bearish

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 01, 2023



Overview :
The GBP/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 1.2545, while minor resistance is seen at 1.2545. Support levels found at the levels of 1.2493 and 1.2454.

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair continued to move upwards from the levels of 1.2493 and 1.2454. The pair rose from the levels of 1.2493 or 1.2454 to the top around 1.2523.

In consequence, the GBP/USD pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 1.2545.

Moreover, the RSI starts signaling an upward trend, and the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the area of 1.2493 - 1.2454. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 1.2493 and 1.2454.

Today, the level of 1.2493 is expected to act as major support. Hence, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.2493 towards the target level of 1.2545.

If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.2545, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2545 in order to reach the second target at 1.0002 to test the double top in the H1 time frame.

However, the price spot of 1.2593 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend will probably be rebounded again from the double top as long as the level of 1.2454 is not breached.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 5, 2023

GBP/USD: On Friday, the pound fell by 75 pips amid mixed but not exactly weak US employment data. This morning, upon the news of President Biden signing a bill to lift the debt ceiling on Saturday, the pound lost another 20 pips, entering the range of the May 31 candle.



The nearest target at 1.2403, the MACD daily line, is now open. Breaking below this line opens up the target of 1.2273, which is both the April 3 low and the February 14 high. The Marlin oscillator is moving deeper into the downtrend area, and it may reach the oversold zone when the price approaches the target range of 1.2125/53.



On the four-hour chart, the price is moving between two target levels while the Marlin oscillator remains negative. It is likely that the price will attempt to break 1.2403. If successful, the pound will aim for the MACD line on the four-hour chart around 1.2370. Breaking below this support, the British pound will be aiming for 1.2273.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 6, 2023

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair had reversed sharply lower after the technical resistance level seen at 1.2550 was too strong to be broken. The bears moved below all of the MA levels, but eventually the market bounced from the short-term trend line support seen at the level of 1.2367. The momentum reversed sharply from the extremely overbought conditions on the H4 time frame as well and is currently moving testing the level of fifty. There is still a room for a momentum and price to move lower, so the short-term outlook remains bearish.



Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.25080
WR2 - 1.24565
WR1 - 1.24223
Weekly Pivot - 1.24050
WS1 - 1.23708
WS2 - 1.23535
WS3 - 1.23020

Trading Outlook:
A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the Weekly time frame chart 100 pips away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778 might indicate the corrective cycle to the upside had been terminated. Any sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2444 will be the first indication of stronger bearish pressure.

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