Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 10, 2023

GBP/USD
Yesterday, the pound closed almost at Monday's closing level. The Marlin oscillator's signal line lies in a sideways trend, thereby reducing the likelihood of creating divergence from Monday's peak, which tested the target level of 1.2666.



But the reversal potential is not exhausted, so consolidating below 1.2598 and overcoming yesterday's low of 1.2577 opens the target at 1.2447. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator returned to the positive area, but probably for a short time.



Below the level of 1.2598, there is another support – the MACD line. Overcoming it (1.2568) will remove the last obstacle for the development of a medium-term decline in the British currency.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for USD/JPY on May 11, 2023

USD/JPY
After the price reached the target level of 135.40 on Wednesday, it returned below the price channel line (134.50). The target on the MACD indicator line is 133.03.



The Marlin oscillator approached the zero line and presents two different interpretations: either the oscillator's signal line will reverse from this zero boundary and pull the quote above 134.50 for a repeated attack on the 135.40 level, or the Marlin will move to negative territory and help the price reach the MACD line (133.03).



On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below 134.50 and below the indicator lines; the Marlin oscillator has returned to negative territory. All these circumstances maintain the downtrend and the main scenario of achieving the target of 133.03.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for May 12, 2023

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair has made another new swing high at the level of 1.2678, so the key technical resistance located t 1.2666 was broken. After the new swing high was made, the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the top of the move, so the market pulled-back and keeps moving lower towards the technical support seen at the level of 1.2434. Please keep an eye on this level as any breakout lower might trigger the bigger correction on Pound. The weak and negative momentum in the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bearish outlook for Pound.



Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.27061
WR2 - 1.26746
WR1 - 1.26607
Weekly Pivot - 1.26431
WS1 - 1.26292
WS2 - 1.26116
WS3 - 1.25801

Trading Outlook:
Pound continues the corrective cycle to the upside and on the Weekly time frame chart the price is about to hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778. When this level is hit, the high volatility is expected, so please stay focused as the bears will defend this level strongly.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of GBP/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Monday May 15, 2023



On the 4-hour intraday chart of the GBP/JPY cross currency pairs, a Failing Wedge pattern can be seen and the support level at 168.04 is strong enough to prevent the GBP/JPY downward correction, especially with the confirmation by the MACD indicator which is in a speculative BUY position, so there is a high probability for GBP/JPY In the near future, JPY will appreciate, rally up to the level of 171.14 as the first target and the level of 172.30 as the second target as long as it is on its way to these targets, there will be no significant downward correction, especially if it breaks below the 166.46 level because if this level is broken down, all Bull scenarios that have been previously described will become invalid and cancel by themselves.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 16, 2023

EUR/USD
On Monday, the euro went through a calm correction after sharply falling in the last two days. On the daily chart, there is no sign of the end of the correction, so it could continue to the resistance line of the price channel at the 1.0900 mark. It is possible to overcome this line, and then the price will be stopped by the MACD indicator line, located 15 points higher.



Then the price could reverse into a new wave of decline with the nearest target of 1.0804. On the 4-hour chart, the accelerated growth of the Marlin oscillator catches the eye.



This could be a sign of oscillator discharge before further subsequent decline, or the euro is waiting for a more complex correction from the new local low with the formation of convergence, as shown on the chart with dashed lines. Perhaps, until the end of the month, the euro will spend in a sideways wide-range.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 17, 2023

EUR/USD So, in accordance with our forecast, after sharply falling below technical supports on May 12, yesterday the price returned to one of them and went through a retest (embedded line of the price channel). It's also noticeable that on the daily chart, touching the channel line occurred at the point of contact with the balance indicator line.



Now we are waiting for the price to drop to the previously indicated target of 1.0804. Falling below this level will allow the price to compete with the support of the underlying price channel line and reach the support level of 1.0736 (the peak of December 15, 2022). However, if it fails to cross support at 1.0804, the price will stay in a short-term sideways trend.



On the four-hour chart, there was a reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the zero line (arrow) yesterday. In general, the price is falling in a linear regression channel. We are waiting for the price at the target level of 1.0804.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for AUD/USD on May 18, 2023

AUD/USD The Australian dollar traded within the target levels of 0.6628 and 0.6670 yesterday. The reversal of the Marlin oscillator's signal line from the zero line was confirmed (arrow) on the daily chart.



Now, the probability of the price overcoming the 0.6628 support has significantly increased, and the price will soon reach the target level of 0.6567 (the low of March 8). In case of an alternative scenario, with the price surpassing 0.6670, it will continue to rise to the MACD line around the 0.6704 mark.



On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has turned down from the oscillator's zero line. The price is developing under the balance and MACD indicator lines. In the short term, we expect the price to overcome the 0.6628 support level according to the main scenario.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 19, 2023

EUR/USD
The euro did not develop a sideways movement, so as not to delay the breakthrough under the technical support level of 1.0804. Trading volumes were average, which means that the systematic buying of the dollar is underway, and the nearest big accumulation of orders is in the range of 0.0680-0.0730. Near this area is our target level of 1.0736. Consolidating below it will pave the way for 1.0636 - the underlying embedded line of the price channel, coinciding with the March 2020 low.



At the moment, a potential for a correction has emerged again, its goal is the level of 1.0804. There is one reason why the euro could fall without going through a correction - increased optimism regarding the resolution of the problem with the US public debt. There is a probability that the dispute in the US government on this issue will end this weekend.

A renewed convergence was formed on the four-hour chart. Since yesterday's low coincided with the point of intersection of price channel lines of two time scales (on 4H linear regression channel), the probability of a correction has increased. This probability may significantly go down once the price settles below yesterday's low.



Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

EUR/USD. Week Preview. Buckle up, price turbulence expected

The EUR/USD pair failed to consolidate within the 7th figure by the end of the past week: at the end of Friday's trading, EUR/USD bulls organized a small but swift counter-attack, which led the price to rise to the level of 1.0804. The corrective pullback was due to a weakening of the US currency, which came under pressure against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's cautious rhetoric.

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve suggested that the May rate hike could be the last in the current monetary policy tightening cycle. This unexpected plot twist unpleasantly surprised dollar bulls, after which the greenback fell across the market. Under other circumstances, this fundamental factor would have had a strong impact on the dollar for a quite long time. But under current conditions, Powell's "dovish" comments may take a back seat. The focus is on the political confrontation between Republicans and Democrats, whose inability to reach an agreement could lead to a default on the US national debt.



There is no doubt that this topic will be the "number 1 issue" for all dollar pairs. All other fundamental factors will take a back seat - including Powell.

Biden raises the stakes
Exactly one week ago - May 14 - the President of the United States announced that negotiations with Congress on raising the debt ceiling are "progressing," and more about their progress will be known literally "in the next two days". At the same time, he emphasized that he is optimistic about the prospects of reaching a compromise. In anticipation of the next round of negotiations, assistants to the President of the United States and the Speaker of the lower house of Congress, Kevin McCarthy, began to form a "road map" to curb federal spending in order to resume negotiations on raising the debt ceiling.

The negotiations indeed took place - but ended in failure. The parties just "agreed to agree", but no more. Now the situation is up in the air. Another round of negotiations should take place after Biden completes his visit to Japan, where the G7 summit is being held. At the same time, the head of the White House canceled his planned visit to Australia, which speaks to the seriousness of the situation.

Important point: if the US President previously assessed the prospects of the negotiation process optimistically, today he has changed the tone of his rhetoric. For example, today he stated that declaring a default is "personally out of the question for him", but at the same time, he cannot guarantee that Republicans will not push the country into default by "doing something outrageous" (originally by Reuters agency - "Biden said he still believed he could reach a deal with Republicans, but could not guarantee that Republicans would not force a default by 'doing something outrageous'").

In this context, Biden called on Congress to work on the issue of raising the debt ceiling. He also emphasized that he would not agree to a bipartisan debt ceiling deal "exclusively on the terms of the Republicans". The head of the White House expressed readiness to cut spending, but stated that he does not intend to fulfill all the demands of Republican congressmen.

The terrifying word "default"

Judging by the escalation of the situation, a default no longer seems unthinkable. One can assume that Biden has decided to raise the stakes with his rhetoric before decisive negotiations, shifting the responsibility for possible default consequences onto the Republican party. However, in the context of currency traders' reaction, it doesn't really matter - whether it's a bluff or a real threat. Such statements from the President of the United States are capable of significantly shaking the markets. Considering that the aforementioned comments were made on a non-working day, dollar pair traders should prepare for a significant gap (in the case of the EUR/USD pair - a downward gap).

Overall, the upcoming week is packed with events. For example, on Monday, three representatives of the Federal Reserve (Bullard, Barkin, Bostic) will speak; on Tuesday, PMI indices will be published in Europe, and data on the volume of new home sales will be released in the US; on Wednesday, the minutes of the May meeting of the Federal Reserve are expected to be published along with a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde; on Thursday, data on the volume of pending home sales will be disclosed in the States; and finally, on Friday, the most important inflation indicator - the core personal consumption expenditures index - will be published in the US.

But all these reports, as well as the speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve and ECB, will remain in the shadow of the key topic of the upcoming week. The fate of the US national debt is the number 1 issue for dollar pair traders, so all eyes will be on the corresponding negotiations of American politicians. Especially since there is not much time left until the "hour X": as the US Treasury previously warned, on June 1, the country's government may declare a debt default if Congress cannot raise the debt ceiling.

Conclusions
Under such fundamental circumstances, it is extremely difficult to predict the possible trajectory of EUR/USD. It can only be assumed that at the start of the new trading week, risk-off sentiments in the markets will rise again, and this fact will provide significant support to the dollar. In this case, the pair will return to the area of the 7th figure with a target at 1.0700. But everything will depend on the negotiation capabilities of Republicans and Democrats. If they do find common ground and announce an increase in the debt ceiling, the spring will unwind in the opposite direction - against the American currency (especially in light of Jerome Powell's recent statements). If the negotiation saga drags on until next weekend, the dollar will continue to gain momentum, acting as a beneficiary of panic sentiments.

Considering the previous statements of Republicans, Democrats, and Biden himself, the negotiations will be very challenging - therefore, dollar pairs may once again find themselves in the area of price turbulence.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 23, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the US stock market closed mixed, bond yields slightly increased, and as a result, the euro did not extend the corrective growth that started on Friday.



Nevertheless, the day closed with a white candlestick above the level of 1.0804, and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to rise, suggesting that we might see a bullish correction. For this to happen, the price needs to surpass the previous day's high at 1.0832. The upper limit of the corrective growth is represented by the embedded line of the price channel around the 1.0887 mark. If the price consolidates below 1.0804, it will indicate that the previous breakout above the level was false and will pave the way to the target at 1.0736.



On the four-hour chart, the price is consolidating above the level of 1.0804. The subsequent price movement is more likely to be upward, but not significantly, towards the nearest resistance at 1.0845 - the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is moving parallel to the zero line in the positive area. The balance indicator line (red) is holding back the growth, but even with moderate price growth, it will adapt and stay above the price. This indicates the corrective nature of the potential growth.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read More