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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Dear forum members, Me and my colleagues are going to provide you with the latest analysis reviews. Please, follow our ...

          
   
  1. #1
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    Wave Analysis by InstaForex

    Dear forum members,

    Me and my colleagues are going to provide you with the latest analysis reviews. Please, follow our analysis and you will be informed about Forex. Hope, our reviews will help you to increase the efficiency of your trading.

    The source is instaforex.com.

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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 30, 2017



    Wave summary;

    Red wave ii is likely turning into an expanded flat correction, which calls for a final decline to just below 1.5480 before turning strongly higher in red wave iii. After an expanded flat wave two correction, the following wave three rallies should be expected to extend and that will call for a rally to at least 1.6232 and possibly even higher.

    R3: 1.5931
    R2: 1.5801
    R1: 1.5712
    Pivot: 1.5650
    S1: 1.5600
    S2: 1.5500
    S3: 1.5450

    Trading recommendation:
    We are long EUR from 1.5645 with stop placed at 1.5210. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR near 1.5450 and use the same stop.

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    Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 03, 2017



    In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence, Final Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, and Tankan Manufacturing Index data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Total Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Resistance. 3: 112.87.
    Resistance. 2: 112.65.
    Resistance. 1: 112.43.
    Support. 1: 112.16.
    Support. 2: 111.94.
    Support. 3: 111.72.

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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 04, 2017



    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as PPI m/m and Spanish Unemployment Change. Today, the US will not release any Economic Data, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1427.
    Strong Resistance:1.1420.
    Original Resistance: 1.1409.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1398.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1371.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1344.
    Original Support: 1.1333.
    Strong Support: 1.1322.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1315.

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    Eurozone inflation is not happy



    If the buyers of the European currency make an attempt to create an upward movement in the first half of the day, then the weak data on eurozone inflation will scare the rest of the traders who are willing to acquire risky assets, at least for today. In the afternoon, many markets will be closed due to the US Independence Day.

    Eurozone producer prices fell again in May indicating weak inflation despite the faster economic growth in the area.

    According to the European Union's statistics agency, the eurozone producer price index declined by 0.4% from April's data. Although, compared with the same period in 2016, the index grew by 3.3%. The month-to-month drop was bigger that the 0.1% decrease that economists expected.

    Slowing inflation may again be a major headache for the European Central Bank which is currently carrying out various methods to help the economy including implementation of negative interest rates and the asset purchase program to try and achieve stable economic growth and a basic inflation rate under 2.0% .

    The statements of the ECB President last week was not able to give assurance that the central bank will immediately reduce monetary policies to stimulate the economy.

    The reaction of the Australian dollar to the statements made by the Reserve Bank of Australia may indicate a turning point in the upward movement that began last month.

    According to reports released today, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50% saying that interest rates are consistent with their objectives in relation with the GDP and inflation. The bank also expects the gradual strengthening of the Australian economy that will be positively affected by the continued large-scale acceleration of global growth.

    An important issue for the regulator is the active strengthening of the Australian dollar which will complicate the adjustment of the economy and lower wage growth. As for the Australian labor market, the RBA economists are satisfied with the increase in employment growth in recent months. Despite this, the market indicators themselves remain ambiguous.

    From a technical point of view, the five-day growth of the Australian dollar should have undergone a downward correction. However, it's still very early to talk about a turning point for buyers. It is possible that when returning to the lower limit of 0.7549, there will be a demand again for the Australian dollar which is expected to continue towards an upward trend in the medium-term for the trading instrument. Also, large resistance levels around 0.7725 and 0.7765 have not been updated. After testing, one could definitely expect a larger downward correction for the Australian dollar.

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    The euro and the pound slipped slightly against the US dollar



    Versatile fundamental statistics from the euro area today has led to a small sale of the euro against the US dollar.

    The data, which was released in the morning, showed that the German Services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for June increased beyond the preliminary estimate.

    According to the IHS Markit report, the German Final Services PMI index grew to 54.0 points against the expected 53.7 points. Meanwhile, the German Composite PMI was at 56.4 points and has been adjusted in respect to the preliminary estimate of 56.1 points. IHS Markit expects that this year, Germany's GDP growth will be 2%.

    Bad data on the euro area led to the sale of euro. Despite this, the projection for the eurozone's economic recovery is for it to accelerate in the second quarter of the year.

    The IHS Markit report also added that the final composite PMI for the eurozone dropped to 56.3 points for the month of June from 56.8 points in May. Taking into account the preliminary data where the index was expected to decline to 55.7 points, it can be said that there is a slight slowdown in growth because of a time factor.

    On the other hand, retail sales in the euro area rose. According to Eurostat. Retail sales in May grew by 0.4% from April's data, significantly exceeding the forecasts of economists. The data may lead to a more stable economic growth rate for the second quarter. Inflation will also be positively affected as expected by the European Central Bank recently.

    As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pairing, sellers are trying to reach for a consolidation below 1.1340 which can lead to a new round of selling for the European currencies. However, the pressure on the euro is most likely to remain on the Fed's protocol meeting later today.

    It is expected that a more detailed study will make it clear when the committee will start reducing their asset portfolio. Currently, experts anticipate the reduction on September of this year.

    Meanwhile, the British pound ignored the date for the services sector.

    According to the IHS Markit report, the PMI for the UK service sector fell to 53.4 points in June from 53.8 points in May. Despite a slight decline, the service sector remains a major factor for the UK's economic growth. The service sector results could also be a wake-up call for the Bank of England who is currently focused on tightening monetary policies. Economists expected the index to be at 54.5 points.

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    Strong Data from ADP will Support the Dollar





    The Fed's minutes of meeting on June did not show any surprise. With the fact of continuing the Bank's plan to normalize monetary policy with some minor restrictions. On the back of this, the market players cautiously assess the incoming data from the US economic statistics.

    In consideration of the published figures, the US dollar was able to gain support, however, not so significant. Today, taking off the market will focus on the release of preliminary data from ADP employment in the private sector of the American economy. They traditionally precede the release of the official figures from the US Department of Labor, which will be issued tomorrow.

    According to the forecast from Bloomberg news agency, the number of new jobs in the private sector should grow by 180,000 in June. It can be recalled that the May figures were at the level of 253,000. The consensus forecast assumes a range from 140,000 to 253,000.

    It can be assumed that if the data from ADP proves to be positive, holding out or above the forecast level, then it can push the dollar to a new local growth, which will only heighten the wave of publishing the same strong data from the Department of Labor.

    Recent developments in the market clearly indicate that the presentation of investors about the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy, though with a creak, but impacts the minds of the most stubborn market players. Therefore, the good news from the labor market will only support the dollar on the wave of keeping the plans of the Federal Reserve.

    While other important data that should pay attention today are the figures of applications for unemployment benefits, the index of US business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) from the ISM for June, of course, the data from the US Department of Energy. In addition, it is expected that FRS member Powell and ECB representative Praet will make some comments. Also, the minutes of June meeting of the ECB will be presented.

    Forecast of the day:
    The pair EURUSD is still in the short-term downtrend followed by the strengthening of the US dollar. It is expected that when the ADP data came in lower than forecasts, then the pair will resume a smooth correction down to 1.1280 after breaking through the level of 1.1320.

    The pair USDJPY is trading above 113.00, hovering in the range of 113.00-113.60. A breakout of the upper range limits the wave of positive data from the ADP which would likely lead to the pair's growth to 114.25.

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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 10, 2017



    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Sentix Investor Confidence and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Consumer Credit m/m and Labor Market Conditions Index m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1457.
    Strong Resistance:1.1451.
    Original Resistance: 1.1440.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1429.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1404.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1377.
    Original Support: 1.1368.
    Strong Support: 1.1356.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1350.

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    The Growth of the World Economy May Slow Down



    The absence of significant fundamental data causes the market to remain in a state of inactivity. Low volatility today locks several currency pairs in the side channels.

    A slight strengthening of the euro was seen only at the beginning of the European session. Growth took place after data showed that Germany's exports in May this year revealed significant growth. This happened against a backdrop of good recovery in global demand since the start of this year.

    According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, the export of goods in May 2017 rose by 1.4% and reached 107.9 billion euros. Compared with the same period of 2016, German exports rose by 14.1%.

    Imports of goods did not lag behind export growth. According to data, in May of this year, imports to Germany grew by 1.2% compared with April and amounted to 87.6 billion euros. Compared to May 2016, the indicator rose by 16.2%.

    Overall, Germany's trade surplus in May amounted to 20.3 billion euros, while economists had expected an increase of up to 20.1 billion euros.

    An interesting forecast was published today by UBS, as it says that by next year the ECB will buy bonds of approximately 180 billion. UBS believes that the European Central Bank will announce a reduction in the program in September of this year, and by January 2018 it will reduce monthly purchases from 60 to 40 billion euros. In June, according to UBS analysts, this program will end.

    If we proceed from this forecast, the demand for the euro in the summer will remain within the maximum range of 1.1450-1.1600. Overcoming this critical range will be possible only after an actual announcement of the completion of the bond purchasing program has been made by the ECB, before the Federal Reserve implements programs aimed at reducing the balance sheet, as well as another hike in interest rates, which is also scheduled for early autumn.

    Today the report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development showed that its composite leading indicator remained steady at the level of 100 points in May of this year compared with 100 points in April.

    The OECD revised the likelihood of accelerating global growth downwards. Mainly due to uncertain growth prospects for the US, UK and Russia, which have declined. In terms of positive data, we can note good prospects of accelerating growth for the economies of China and France.

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    The market is at rest



    Yesterday's data on the US and the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, did not give proper to the US dollar.

    According to the report of the research group, Conference Board, the index if employment trends in the US for May of this year was revised down to 133.32 points from 133.70 points.

    The growth in consumer lending in the US also indicates a stable situation in the US economy.

    According to the data provided by the statistics agency, consumer lending in the US for May this year increased by $ 18.41 billion following a growth of $ 12.9 billion in the previous month of April.

    Yesterday's speech by the Federal Reserve representative, John Williams, did not lead to major changes in the market.

    Williams said that if inflation slows down, it will be in favor of further gradual tightening of monetary policy. This means another increase in interest rates this years is a reasonable baseline scenario.

    He also noted that at the present time, there are a lot of signs that the economy is strengthening including the growth of salaries in the US which is in line with expectations. In his opinion, the US fiscal policy is on an unstable path and the reforms that the White house wants to hold will help to improve the situation.

    With regard to the reduction of balance, Williams said that it makes sense to begin the normalization as soon as possible this year.

    In general, the Federal Reserve representative along with his colleagues did not say anything new. Because of this, the market reaction to his statements did not follow.

    As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, everything remains the same.

    The support level at 1.381 is important since the current upward trend formed on last July 5 will depend on it. A breakthrough in this area will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a decrease in the trading instruments that are already in the support level of 1.1330. If the buyers of the European currency manage to tighten it to the middle level of the channel at 1.1410, then it is likely that the bull scenario will continue to update with the monthly highs of 1.1440 to 1.1470.

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