Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Oil flies into the stratosphere

Attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and a downed American drone are children's toys compared to the attack on Abqaiq, the world's largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, through which about 7 million b/d passes. Brent and WTI have responded with the largest daily rally in history, and it cannot be said that investors have calmed down. The attack can easily be repeated, the US war with Iran is more real than ever, and who, interestingly, in such circumstances will risk actively selling black gold?

An armed attack turned off 5.7 million bpd from the game, which is about 5% of global production. Although Riyadh is trying in every possible way to convince investors that everything is under control and within a day, about a third of the losses in black gold production have already been restored, insider Bloomberg says something else. According to at least four competent sources, the restoration is likely to drag on from a few weeks to several months, and a reduction in global production will provide all possible assistance to the Brent and WTI bulls. Everyone is waiting for comments from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, but the very figure of this man deserves close attention.

After a member of the royal family became the Minister of Energy for the first time in history, many suspected that something was wrong. Prices rose by leaps and bounds, and the attack on Abqaiq is perceived as a bolt from the blue, but only by a majority. When a crime occurs, one always wonders, "who benefits?" For a balanced budget, Saudi Arabia needed oil at $80 per barrel, but before the appointment of Abdulaziz bin Salman as minister, there were few reasons for a rapid rally. Reducing OPEC production did not help: the Americans were actively increasing production, and China was cutting demand. For a sharp rise in prices, force majeure was needed, and in an amazing way it became a reality.

One-day oil jumps



According to Bloomberg, the maximum reserve capacity that can be put into production in the coming weeks is 3.9 million bpd. Even if Riyadh recovers a third of the losses from 5.7 million bpd, there will be a reduction in production. And with it, the growth of Brent and WTI quotes. As for Saudi Arabia, it is in its interest to spread rumors about a slow return to previous levels and the disruption of the October supplies, as well as to call other OPEC members to implement Vienna agreements, which the Saudis do.

At the same time, the issue of the United States and Iran's trade war, which the United States accused of organizing the attack on Abqaiq, does not come up on the agenda. Tehran denies any involvement, and based on the principle "who needed it most", it is very likely that it really has nothing to do with it.

Technically, after completing the targeting on the Bat (113%) and Wolfe Waves patterns, the risks of a pullback increased to the levels of 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 4-5. End of support at $66.4 and $64.4 per barrel will attract new buyers to the market.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 19, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar successfully broke the support area, consisting of two lines - balance and MACD of price channels and indicator lines. Moreover, the breakthrough occurred today on quite good employment data. The growth of new jobs amounted to 34.7 thousand against the expectation of 10.0 thousand and the share of the economically active population increased from 66.1% to 66.2%. Against this background, the level rose slightly to 5.3% from 5.2%, which is a fairly strong sign of the market's intention to sell the AUD/USD pair at an accelerated pace.



The Immediate target of 0.6678 at the support line for the red price channel coincides with the low of August 7 that can be reached in three days. Then, the blue channel comes into play with support in the region of 0.6605. On the four-hour chart, the price is in free fall and there are no signs of a stop in the correction.



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Dramatic roles of the pound: a candidate for decline and a source of tension for the market



The UK currency is constantly under the scrutiny of market participants. The reason for this, analysts believe that it is the tense situation around Brexit, creating a danger for the pound itself as well as other currencies.

Many world currencies are involved in the orbit of the British pound. The currency of Great Britain in one way or another affects the means of payment of other countries, and currently this effect is negative. The pound's dynamics were significantly affected by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK on inflation.

According to the report, the base consumer price index fell to 1.5% in August, which is the lowest level since November 2016. According to analysts, the current situation indicates the need to reduce interest rates in the UK. Weak macroeconomic statistics indicate that in the coming months the regulator may reduce interest rates. This is negative news for the British pound, analysts emphasize. It can noticeably lose in price.

Currently, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading in the consolidation range near the levels of 1.2453–1.2445. According to preliminary forecasts, in the event of a decrease in the current level, a further drop is possible to the level of 1.2400. With the implementation of a more optimistic scenario and the breakdown of the upper region of 1.2490, growth is likely to reach 1.2555. After that, the potential to decline to the 1.2400 level is growing, analysts summarize.

An alarming situation in European markets is provoked by uncertainty about Brexit. Currently, the European Parliament has approved, by a majority vote, a deferral for the UK if it so requests. However, this event has already been taken into account by the market, and the pound will not receive strong support from this news. In this situation, investors and traders will invest in more reliable assets, analysts are certain.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 23

Forecast for September 23:
Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:



For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1227, 1.1188, 1.1135, 1.1114, 1.1079, 1.1019, 1.0987 and 1.0932. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the ascending structure of September 12, which requires a breakdown of the level of 1.0987. In this case, the first potential target is 1.0932. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1080. In this case, the first goal is 1.1114. The passage at the price of the noise range 1.1114 - 1.1135 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1188. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1227. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.1080 Take profit: 1.1114
Buy 1.1135 Take profit: 1.1188
Sell: 1.1019 Take profit: 1.0990
Sell: 1.0985 Take profit: 1.0935



For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2738, 1.2673, 1.2622, 1.2549, 1.2460, 1.2403, 1.2338 and 1.2281. Here, we continue to monitor the local ascendant structure from September 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2549. In this case, the target is 1.2622. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2622 - 1.2673. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2738. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom. We expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.2460 - 1.2403. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2338. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.2281.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2620
Buy: 1.2674 Take profit: 1.2736
Sell: 1.2401 Take profit: 1.2340
Sell: 1.2336 Take profit: 1.2282



For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9983, 0.9962, 0.9941, 0.9927, 0.9893, 0.9868, 0.9835, 0.9813 and 0.9783. Here, we expect the development of the downward structure of September 19. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9893. In this case, the target is 0.9868. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9868 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.9835, Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9835 - 0.9813. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9783. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback in correction. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9927 - 0.9941. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9962. This level is a key support for the descending structure of September 19.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of September 19.

Trading recommendations:
Buy : 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9940
Buy : 0.9942 Take profit: 0.9960
Sell: 0.9893 Take profit: 0.9870
Sell: 0.9866 Take profit: 0.9835



For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.21, 107.95, 107.77, 107.50, 107.25, 107.06 and 106.82. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 19. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.50. In this case, the target is 107.25. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 107.25 - 107.06. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 106.82. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 107.77 - 107.95. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 108.21. This level is the key support for the downward structure from September 19.

Main trend: descending structure of September 19.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 107.77 Take profit: 107.93
Buy : 107.97 Take profit: 108.20
Sell: 107.50 Take profit: 107.27
Sell: 107.23 Take profit: 107.08



For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3379, 1.3343, 1.3326, 1.3297, 1.3260, 1.3235, 1.3198 and 1.3172. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of September 10. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3297. Here, the target is 1.3326. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3326 - 1.3343. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3379. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement and consolidation are possible in the range of 1.3260 - 1.3235. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3198. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will have the downward structure. In this case, the potential goal is 1.3172.

The main trend is the rising structure of September 10, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.3299 Take profit: 1.3226
Buy : 1.3344 Take profit: 1.3378
Sell: 1.3260 Take profit: 1.3237
Sell: 1.3233 Take profit: 1.3200



For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6822, 0.6797, 0.6782, 0.6745, 0.6732, 0.6705 and 0.6683. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of September 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 0.6745 - 0.6732. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6705. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6683. Upon reaching which, we expect a departure in the correction. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6782 - 0.6797. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6822. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of September 13.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 0.6782 Take profit: 0.6795
Buy: 0.6800 Take profit: 0.6822
Sell : 0.6745 Take profit : 0.6734
Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6707



For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.41, 119.02, 118.74, 118.28, 118.01, 117.73, 117.51 and 117.10. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 18. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 118.28 - 118.01. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 117.73. Price consolidation is in the range of 117.73 - 117.51 . For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 117.10. From this level, we expect a rollback to the top. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 118.74 - 119.02. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the goal is 119.41. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 18.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 118.75 Take profit: 119.00
Buy: 119.04 Take profit: 119.40
Sell: 118.28 Take profit: 118.03
Sell: 118.00 Take profit: 117.74



For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 137.21, 136.13, 135.37, 134.10, 133.39 and 132.23. Here, we are following the local ascendant structure of September 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 135.37 - 136.13. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 137.21, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 134.10 - 133.39. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 132.23. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 3, the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 135.38 Take profit: 136.10
Buy: 136.15 Take profit: 137.20
Sell: 134.10 Take profit: 133.42
Sell: 133.35 Take profit: 132.30



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Yen came with trump cards

The economic calendar of the last full week of September can hardly be called saturated, so investors will be focused on events of a geopolitical nature. The trade war, the conflict in the Middle East and Brexit are forcing investors to pay attention to safe haven assets, all the more so since the yen, which has become pretty cheaper in the first half of the month, is starting to look like a tidbit.

Over the past 3 weeks, USD/JPY quotes have grown by 4% amid closing short positions. De-escalation of the US-China trade conflict, lower Fed rates, revival of the European QE, a decrease in the probability of disorderly Brexit and strong macro statistics across the United States convinced investors that not everything was as bad as is commonly believed. Is it time to reduce the share of safe haven assets in portfolios? As a result, the yield on US treasury bonds began to grow, and the yen, franc and gold were in a black body. As subsequent events showed, not for long.

The attacks on Saudi Arabia, the statement by Donald Trump that he did not need a temporary deal with China on the eve of the presidential election, as well as the refusal of the Chinese delegation to visit American farmers, were seen as a signal of worsening global risk appetite and relations between Washington and Beijing. Riyadh claims that the terrorist attack was certainly funded by Tehran, and Donald Trump sends troops to the Allied camps in the Middle East and imposes sanctions against the Iranian central bank. How not to buy bonds and other safe havens in such conditions?

A deterioration in global risk appetite and a return to interest in the yen are making life difficult for the Bank of Japan. We watched the USD/JPY correction, realizing that devaluation would help accelerate inflation. Consumer prices in Japan slowed to 0.5% y/y in August, which is the worst trend since 2017.

The dynamics of Japanese inflation



Slowing inflation theoretically unties the hands of the central bank in easing monetary policy, but everything looks different in real life. Haruhiko Kuroda is confronted by the Fed's inability to weaken the US dollar even by lowering federal funds rates and EUR/USD growth in response to the revival of the ECB's quantitative easing program. It is obvious that a further drop in the overnight rate (-0.1%) in the red zone will only aggravate the problems of Japanese banks. In the current situation it is better to sit and see how events will develop. Perhaps negotiations between Washington and Beijing will result in a breakthrough and increase in global risk appetite ... On the contrary, the resumption of the rally in the oil market poses a threat to countries importing black gold and strengthens the demand for safe-haven assets.

Technically, the bulls' inability to hold USD/JPY quotes above the upper limit of the downward trading channel is the first sign of their weakness. After reaching an intermediate target of 78.6% according to the Shark pattern, a logical pullback followed, which risks continuing in the direction of 106.9 and 106.25. The main task of the bears is to keep the pair below 107.5.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 25, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday was very unfortunate for two heads of state - Boris Johnson and Donald Trump; the Supreme Court of Great Britain declared the sending of Parliament on forced leave as unlawful and today it will return to work, and the House of Representatives of the US Congress began the impeachment procedure of Donald Trump for "betrayal of his oath of office, betrayal of our national security and betrayal of the integrity of our elections." The reason was allegedly his demand for the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to launch an anti-corruption investigation against John Biden's son Hunter, the head of the gas company in Ukraine Burisma Group.

At the same time, the Ifo index of business sentiment in Germany rose from 94.3 to 94.6 in September, while the US consumer confidence index from the Conference Board dropped from 134.2 to 125.1 in the same month. The euro has grown by 26 points.

We do not believe that Trump is facing real impeachment, he just once again makes it clear that there is nothing for that "upstart" in the second presidential term. Earlier (at the end of April), we wrote that the Democratic Party successfully promoted its people to leading posts in many countries, now they need to restore "order" in the country.



From a technical point of view, the situation returned to normal over the day. On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is moving down from the boundary with the growth territory.

On a four-hour chart, the price turned around, not reaching the resistance of the indicator lines, Marlin returned to the decline zone. The main scenario with a decrease in the euro remains, the target of 1.0926 is a low of September 12 and 3.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Gold does not like the president

The worst dynamics of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany over the past 10 years, the fastest decline in the consumer sentiment index in the US since the beginning of the year and rumors about the impeachment of Donald Trump - what could be better for safe haven assets?. The frank and the yen grew steadily, Treasury yields collapsed, and bulls on gold resumed attacks aimed at updating the 6-year high. The precious metal is preparing to close in the green zone for the fifth month in a row, and we must admit that it has reason for this.

When the leading economies of the world in the form of China, Germany and the US slow down, and central banks try to save the situation by easing monetary policy, the bulls on XAU/USD feel like a fish in water. Monetary expansion weakens major world currencies, and even the growth of the USD index does not scare fans of gold: it is not the dollar that is strong, its competitors are weak. Moreover, the Fed is cutting rates and, according to TD Securities forecasts, in order to eliminate the crisis in the money market, it will revive a program of quantitative easing in the amount of $515 billion in October. At the same time, political risks increased in the United States due to rumors about the impeachment of Donald Trump, which will contribute to the loss of steam by the US economy and global GDP. Is it any wonder that the treasury bond yields dropped sharply? The dynamics of gold and yield on US Treasury bonds



The fact that the bullish XAU/USD trend is stronger than ever is evidenced by an increase in stocks of specialized exchange-traded funds to a 6-year high and an increase in Swiss precious metal exports to Britain to 112.5 tons, which is the highest value for the last 7 years . As a rule, when gold flows from the West (US, Britain) to the East (China, India), sellers dominate the market; when it changes its direction - buyers. Switzerland serves as a transit point and a kind of indicator of the activity of investors and jewelers. As for ETF reserves, they reached the level of 2494.3 tons and are ready to mark the best quarterly growth from April-June 2016.

Yes, the impeachment of the current head of the White House seems unlikely, but it undermines the political authority of Donald Trump and unties the hands of China. It is possible that China will continue to pull the cat by the tail, sincerely hoping that the main enemy could resign himself long before the presidential election of 2020. The October talks in Washington and Beijing may not be as productive as financial markets expect, which will lead to the development of a correction on US stock indices and will allow the bulls to develop an attack on XAU/USD.

Technically, the inability of the bears for gold to keep quotes below the trend line of the Burst stage of the "Bump and Run Reversal" pattern indicates their weakness. The precious metal quickly returned to the game and if the September high is updated, the AB=CD pattern will be activated. Its target of 161.8% corresponds to the mark of $1600 per ounce

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 27, 2019

EUR/USD
On Thursday, amid a calm political background, the euro pushed through the signal support of 1.0926 and is now ready to work out the target range of 1.0805/45. The final estimate of US GDP for the 2nd quarter remained unchanged at 2.0%, which supported moderate optimism in the market. Today, orders for durable goods for August are expected to decrease by -1.1%, but personal income is projected to grow by 0.4%, as well as expenditures by 0.3%. Taking into account yesterday's data on incomplete sales in the secondary market at 1.6% against the forecast of 1.0%, as well as rising indicators for real estate prices and growth in consumer confidence released this week, data on expenses and income may even exceed expectations. which can become the main news of the day.



Technically, on the daily chart, the situation is completely falling - chart indicators and the oscillator in a downward position.

On the four-hour chart, there is also a downward trend; price below the lines of balance and MACD, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator forms a kind of triangle, which may be a sign of a continuation of the downward trend.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 30, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday, after the euro's attempt to overcome support at 1.0926, the price chose to return a little higher in order to try to do it with fresh energy in the new week. This morning a little strength was given by economic data on the Asia-Pacific; retail sales for August show growth of 2.0% y/y against the forecast of 0.7% y/y, business activity in the manufacturing sector of China (Manufacturing PMI) for September increased from 49.5 to 49.8. In the afternoon, employment indicators in the euro area will come out, forecasts are neutral, so investors are interested in how much the data deviate from expectations.



On a four-hour chart, the price is near the signal level of 1.0926, consolidating below it will launch the main decline scenario. We are waiting for the price in the target range of 1.0806/44, formed by the line of the price channel and the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. Strong economic indicators in the euro area and weak in the US (if the Chicago PMI is weaker than the forecast of 50.0) may pull up the euro to the MACD line, to around 1.1000.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 1,2019

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 38 points on Monday. The readings of technical indicators have become even more bearish. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator penetrates deeper into the negative trend zone. The target range is the gap from the price channel line to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% - 1.0806/44. Consolidating the price below it opens the second target at 1.0710 - the low of January 2016.



On a four-hour chart, the signal line simultaneously develops in two conflicting patterns; a convergence reversal formation is formed, but within the framework of a simple rectangle. In this case, both signals lose power. In the evening, ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released in the September assessment - the forecast is 50.4 versus 49.1 in August, and an increase can also be shown for construction costs in August - the forecast is 0.5% against 0.1% earlier. We look forward to further weakening of the eur



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.