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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Weekly market review Greetings, dear traders! Congratulations to everyone on the beginning of autumn and, hopefully, on the increase in ...

          
   
  1. #491
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Weekly market review



    Greetings, dear traders! Congratulations to everyone on the beginning of autumn and, hopefully, on the increase in volatility associated with the end of the holiday period, including the bank traders, and the Forex market, as you know, is the interbank market, and the private traders who are here random people.

    The first week of autumn is an important trading period associated with a change in order placements in anticipation of non-farm payrolls, and after them. Often, it is the "nanoc" that one ends and other tendencies of instruments related to the American dollar begin. Today, Monday, according to most professional traders, is the worst time to open new trading positions and decide on a change in trading trends. Moreover, it is also today, September 2, 2019 - is a holiday in the USA and Canada - Labor Day. Therefore, let us congratulate the United States labor teams on this holiday!

    For us, this means that trading during this evening will take place in narrow ranges and it is not worth waiting for super-movements from the markets today. Only "Donald Trump" can break the "trade silence" with his Twitter. Sometimes, it seems to me that Donald is an avid trader who "rules" his unprofitable positions with his own, often diametrically opposite, statements on the network.

    Today, the main trading idea related to the American dollar for me is to strengthen the dollar in USD/JPY and GBP/USD, which gave last week. I also have very interesting ideas on certain crosses, which will be published soon.

    What to do for traders in a period of low volatility? Of course, developing trading skills in the "strategy tester", as well as working on the analysis of profitable / unprofitable positions of the last week, in order to understand - how you earn and how much you lose and at what volumes and at what time you have it is obtained most efficiently. Good luck in trading! And see you at the evening reviews of cross-courses!

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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  2. #492
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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 04/09/2019

    Technical Market Overview:

    The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the low at the level of 1.0926, broke above the technical resistance at the level of 1.0964 and made a local high at the level of 1.0979. The momentum is off the negative area and the stochastic is off the oversold territory. The next target for the local pull-back or correction is seen at the level of 1.0997. Nevertheless, if bears continue to make pressure on the market, the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.0908, which is technical support at the weekly time frame.

    Weekly Pivot Points:

    WR3 - 1.1285
    WR2 - 1.1224
    WR1 - 1.1084
    Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1025
    WS1 - 1.0886
    WS2 - 1.0818
    WS3 - 1.0681

    Trading Recommendations:

    The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  3. #493
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Golden cosmos

    Good evening, dear traders. As promised, here's the evening forecast for gold. Sorry, was not able to publish it in the morning, because it has already started to work.

    The trade wars drove gold to an incredible $ 1,550 per troy ounce. This is the largest gold trend. for many years! Over the past year, gold has passed a record of 36,000p and continues to storm the high, knocking out the stops of medium-term sellers. And just yesterday, according to perhaps the most effective Price Action trading strategy, a pattern called "daily absorption in the trend" has appeared - which speaks of an ongoing trend and after which it is recommended to buy. Today, to the American session, there was a magnificent rollback, allowing you to go into longs at the best price.



    On the other hand, sellers who have been selling gold from highs for two weeks now have to hide their risks only for one single extreme - this year's high - quotation 1554. Although, gold has not yet risen above. This is a trap that will be slammed in the near future and trap sellers.

    I propose to take a closer look from the rollbacks to the longs - with a take on updating 1554 and higher. Often breakdowns of weekly extremes for gold are very volatile - and give a positive slippage, on which you can earn good profit. This is the first part of the plan.

    The second part is for those traders who are buying in a large amount (scalpers). The idea is very simple and is to work after the breakdown of 1554, which for example to 1560-1570, and then to return to the broken level of 1554. This is an old scalping technique in the overbought market to work on the consolidations of large buyers after the breakdown of key extremes. It is due to this that the price decline to a broken level, which becomes support.

    Be that as it may, you can earn in both cases.

    I wish you success in trading and follow the policy of money management!

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  4. #494
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Taking profit on USD/JPY and GOLD



    This is not a random number, because the method of "hunting for stops" involves work tied to the mistakes of bank traders. The average amount of stops which makes these 100p. And you can easily check it by looking at the open positions of banks online right now. Thus, we still have positions in crosses - which are also all in the "plus".

    In addition, fix part of the profit from the position on gold left overnight + 430p, and hold the last part at the level of 1500:



    Tomorrow is an important day for currency traders. I have noticed many times that if you give out before non-game plus - you have to leave, because the news is extremely unpredictable. Therefore, I prefer to trade after news trends, and for this, you need to have patience. The best choice for traders to trade on the USD news (if you are not a stop hunter) is to sit them in crosses. And fortunately, our diversification tactics make this easy to do. We continue to hold positive positions on AUD/CHF or NZD/CHF according to the recommendations given earlier.

    Good luck in the trading and see you at the next reviews!

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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  5. #495
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on September 10, 2019

    EUR/USD

    On Monday, the euro made another attempt to work out the target level of 1.1073 - the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, but this time stopped short of positive news about the growth of Germany's trade balance in July from 18.0 billion euros to 20.2 billion and ideas of Germany to establish a parallel state structure for attracting investment through increased public debt, which turned out to be insufficient.



    On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator shows the intention of a reversal down from the boundary with the growth territory. This is the first, but weak and the only sign of a possible price reversal down, there are no others even on the four-hour chart.



    On H4, the price develops above the indicator lines of balance and MACD. Marlin is also in the upward trend zone. If the price consolidates above the level of 1.1073, growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% is possible at the price of 1.1157. The development of the downward trend is possible after the price goes below the MACD line on H4 (1.1006) and under the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0986. In this case, the target level is the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.0844.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  6. #496
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 11, 2019

    AUD / USD pair
    In the last two days, the Australian dollar has fixed above both lines of the price channels (red and blue) for the weekly and monthly scales. The price is also higher than the balance lines and MACD daily chart. The nearest target is open to July 10 minimum at 0.691. Subsequent consolidation above a new level opens the second target of 0.6962, which is the upper border of the blue (weekly) price channel.



    For the development of a falling scenario, the price should fall below the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart at 0.6815. Under this condition, the downward target below opens to 0.6685, which is the embedded line of the red (monthly) price channel.



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  7. #497
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    Gold: a great opportunity to buy at the level of $1480-50



    According to Bart Melek, the head of TD Securities, the strengthening of the dollar, the growth of the value of US stocks and bond yields reflected on the prospects for gold and long positions in the asset. "The yellow metal fell to just below $1,500 an ounce at the beginning of the week, and we think that the price could move to the support level between $1,48050 if the Fed doesn't weaken the policy at the next meeting," Meleka said. At this stage, the gold market believes that the US central bank will keep rates at the current level without any unconditional commitments to aggressively lower rates in the future. "In our opinion, no matter what central banks do over the next few months, the global economy will decline due to weaker trading activity amid a trade war between the US and China."



    The largest world markets are under attack. Germany is showing weakness, China continues to disappoint with its performance, and there are signs that the US economy is also slowing. Given these facts and that monetary policy is not very productive, the projected decline in the price of gold should be considered as an excellent buying opportunity, since central banks need to be aggressive in their actions in order to avoid a sharp drop in global activity next year.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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  8. #498
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    EUR/USD. "Bear feast" cancelled: the ECB disappointed sellers of the pair

    The proposition "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" summed up many EUR/USD traders today. It turned out the other way around: over the past few days, the pair has been selling on rumors of a large-scale easing of the ECB's monetary policy, and after the news, the euro then updated its high of the day and week. This situation confirms another notorious fact: anything can happen in the market, and even the most recognized algorithms sometimes fail.



    However, so far it is only a short-term reaction of traders. There is no talk of any turning point in the trend, since the price has remained in the same positions as all previous days. If you do not take into account the 150-point price fluctuation, then we can say that the September meeting of the ECB did not affect the value of the pair. Of course, this fact looks anomalous, since all the decisions and theses voiced at today's meeting were against the euro. Perhaps, with one exception: Mario Draghi did not announce a further reduction in the interest rate. In other words, the entourage of previous events played a key role today. Representatives of the ECB, all kinds of experts, analysts, currency strategists and the successor of Mario Draghi - Christine Lagarde - all of them have been aggravating the situation for several weeks, preparing the market for large-scale easing of monetary policy parameters.

    The European Central Bank as a whole met the expectations of the market by lowering the interest rate by 0.1% and announcing the resumption of QE from November 1 by 2.6 trillion euros with a monthly volume of 20 billion euros. But, as you know, "appetite comes with eating": market participants were ready for more drastic measures (lowering rates to -0.60%, and QE with a monthly volume of 40-50 billion). At least on the eve of today's meeting, precisely these values were discussed among experts (which, in fact, was responsible for the downward impulse of EUR/USD at the beginning of this week). Therefore, when the central bank announced its decision, the pair fell to the bottom of the 9th figure on emotions. Then the price bounced back - when it became clear that the regulator, firstly, didn't use the arsenal of available tools "to the fullest", and secondly, it made it clear that it did not intend to take the interest rate further into the negative area for the foreseeable future.

    A similar situation was seen in December 2015. Back then, the European regulator abandoned the idea of using shock therapy, focusing on the option of a gradual and longer-term effect. In exactly the same way as now, four years ago, everyone was expecting and discussing the rate reduction during the previous several months. They also spoke with the same confidence about the expansion of the stimulating program: opinions differed only with regard to the size of the increase. However, the regulator only reduced the rate and did not resort to large-scale integrated measures. Moreover, Draghi made it clear that the ECB will not return to the issue of easing monetary policy for at least several months, giving the European economy time to recover. After this meeting, the EUR/USD pair rebounded and strengthened by 300 points, although many predicted the euro collapse.



    Now the situation is somewhat different. On the one hand, Mario Draghi is unlikely to initiate and support the issue of further easing of monetary policy - at least until November. But his cadence ends in the last month of autumn, so the ECB's further steps will largely depend on Lagarde, who has already announced that the monetary policy is adaptive "in the foreseeable future", and the nature of the regulator's further actions will depend on the conditions of the financial market . She also said that she "does not believe" that the central bank has set an effective lower limit for interest rates. In other words, the future head of the ECB fairly transparently hinted at an acceptable backlash in this matter. This means that, hypothetically, the European regulator may not be limited to one round of lowering rates further into the negative area.

    That is why the reaction of the EUR/USD bulls to the results of the September meeting is relatively limited. I can assume that if it were not for the "Lagarde factor", then the pair would be at least in the middle of the 11th figure, and maybe it would test more significant price heights. But for now, EUR/USD is trying to overcome only the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to the mark of 1.1060. If the bulls consolidate on this target, then the price will be the second resistance level of 1.1150 - this is the upper line of Bollinger Bands, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe. In general, the next critical "test" for the pair will take place next week, when the September meeting of the Federal Reserve will take place. If the members of the US regulator, in contrast to the ECB, exceed the "dovish" expectations of investors, then the large-scale correction will be continued - up to 12-13 figures.

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