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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for August 11, 2025

The euro has settled even more firmly at the 1.1632 support level. The longer it consolidates there, the more balanced the probabilities of growth and decline will become. However, two factors are influencing this neutral structure and subtly increasing the chances for the bears: Fibonacci time line No. 8, which gets closer with each candlestick, and the Marlin oscillator, which, amid sideways price movement, will remain in negative territory.

In this situation, either on August 15 or August 18, the euro could break down toward the nearest target at 1.1495 and then further to 1.1392. For an upward move to develop, the price must break above the August 7 high at 1.1699 (with the target at 1.1777 — the MACD line), while for a downward move, it must firmly consolidate below 1.1632.

On the four-hour chart, the price has formed a triangle — a trend continuation pattern — but ongoing consolidation could easily turn it into a typical range. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has approached the zero line, and in the event of sideways price movement, it is likely (especially as it moved down from above) to remain in a sideways channel below it, in the negative zone. The first downside target is 1.1570 — the MACD line.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD forecast for August 13, 2025

Yesterday, the euro once again attempted to test the balance line resistance. This time, it was supported by external markets — the S&P 500 rose by 1.14% and even set a new all-time high. However, the euro is in no hurry — it has not broken out of its range, as it is approaching Fibonacci time period No. 8 on the daily scale. Moreover, the stock market rally itself is facing increasing risks.

The Marlin oscillator's signal line is moving into positive territory. A slight rise is possible, as is a reversal from the upper boundary of the range. Today's session opened above the balance line, so there is a chance of surpassing yesterday's high. The maximum potential growth is toward the MACD line at 1.1770. At the moment, time remains the key factor.

The updated range is visible on the four-hour chart (grey rectangle). Here, the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory, making it difficult for the price to replicate yesterday's surge. Overall, the sideways movement continues.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview – August 14: Technicals + Fundamentals = Verdict

The GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement, which did not require any new fundamental events or macroeconomic releases. Tuesday's U.S. inflation report was more than enough. Recall that headline inflation remained unchanged for the second month of summer, while core inflation accelerated slightly more than forecast. So why have we seen the U.S. currency fall for two days in a row? First, because we have been seeing the dollar decline for the seventh month in a row, we have listed the reasons countless times, and they have not changed recently. Second, because low inflation encourages repeated monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, the labor market has shown discouraging results over the last three months, while inflation remains relatively low. What follows from this? The Fed may cut rates several times before the end of the year — in fact, three times. Third, Donald Trump is winning against Jerome Powell in their forecasts. It was the U.S. president who consistently stated that tariffs would not cause inflation to rise, while the Fed Chair took the opposite view. Frankly, we still believe Powell is correct, as higher prices for many imported goods and goods that use imported raw materials in production cannot fail to provoke a general rise in prices. At the same time, we acknowledge that, for now, inflation is indeed growing very slowly. Let us remind traders of the main equation. If the dollar fell like a stone into an abyss in the first half of 2025, when the Fed maintained a hawkish stance and did not cut the key rate even once, then what can be expected from it in the second half of 2025, when the Bank of England and the European Central Bank remain silent, but the Fed will have to ease monetary policy? Especially if the trade war continues in its current form.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on August 21. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro The test of the 1.1659 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. I did not get any other entry points into the market either. The hawkish tone of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes did not trigger the expected sharp rise in the dollar. Investors are likely convinced that the central bank will cut interest rates in September, despite the lack of clear signals. Everyone is focused on Jerome Powell's speech tomorrow in Jackson Hole, so no significant market changes are likely before then. Contradictory economic signals reinforce this uncertainty. On the one hand, inflation remains high, pushing the Fed toward more decisive action. On the other hand, signs of slowing economic growth are increasingly evident, raising concerns about potential effects on employment. The key factors shaping the dollar's further movement could be upcoming economic reports—especially inflation and labor market data—along with speeches from Fed officials. Today, data will be released on the eurozone consumer confidence index, as well as the services PMI and composite PMI for August. These indicators will help assess the current state of the regional economy and sentiment among businesses and consumers. Weak consumer confidence may reflect household concerns about inflation, interest rates, and job opportunities, which could lead to reduced spending and slower growth. Similarly, declines in the services PMI and the composite PMI could indicate weakening activity in the services sector and a worsening overall business climate. In this unstable environment, investors will carefully analyze these figures to assess the eurozone's growth prospects and potential impact on European Central Bank policy. In particular, worse-than-expected results could increase pressure on the ECB to ease monetary policy, which would negatively affect the euro. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data may support the euro and reinforce expectations that the ECB will stick to a wait-and-see stance on rates.



Buy Scenario Scenario No. 1: Buying the euro today is possible if the price reaches around 1.1653 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1687. At 1.1687, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro can only be expected after very strong data. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to move upward from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1639 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1653 and 1.1687 can be expected. Sell Scenario Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1639 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1612, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Downward pressure on the pair will return in case of weak data. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move downward from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1653 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1639 and 1.1612 can be expected.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for August 25, 2025

In his Friday speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated: "price increases from tariffs may lead to more persistent inflation, and this factor requires constant monitoring," while also noting that "demand and supply for the labor force are declining," which overall "increases the risk of lower employment." In these key remarks, there was no indication of a December rate cut. As expected, the tone was: "We will cut in September and see the effect." Yet the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.93%. This suggests that the decline was more of a psychological reaction and, at the same time, a speculative move. Bitcoin, which trades nonstop, has already erased Friday's rally with a decline.

On the daily chart, the euro moved above the balance indicator line, but to confirm the breakout, it must consolidate above the MACD line (1.1762), which would then open the path to 1.1872. At present, however, the price may slip back under the balance line. A return below 1.1632 would fully neutralize Friday's rally and open the target at 1.1495. The Marlin oscillator has settled in positive territory, so any price reversal could stretch over two days.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview. August 28. What Is Trump Doing? Debunking the Myths

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded with a slight decline, which may seem puzzling. However, in the EUR/USD article, we have already attempted to explain why many moves on the currency market cannot be fundamentally or macroeconomically justified. The mistake many analysts and traders make is trying to justify every 50-pip movement with fundamentals, forgetting that not every price change is driven by news. Forex market participants make transactions not only when news or reports are released. The currency market exists to provide access to the currencies needed for trade. Imagine a major bank needs hundreds of millions in euros. It's unlikely they'll wait for perfect fundamentals to buy that much. And they almost certainly won't form such a big position in just 15 minutes. As a result, the euro exchange rate may fall for an extended period, then suddenly soar upward. The rate may rise the entire time the large bank is building its position, while to smaller traders, the movement will seem inexplicable. So remember—not every move on the market can or should be explained. The same applies to explaining any action taken by Donald Trump. Yesterday, it was announced that the US president has decided to raise import tariffs on India to 50%. The reason? India's refusal to halt its purchases of Russian energy. Here, most analysts may repeat the same mistake as with explanations of market movements. Many probably think Trump really wants to end the war in Ukraine, and that India buying Russian oil is in some way funding the war, letting Moscow continue combat actions. From our point of view, that's not the case. Trump surely realizes that hundreds of sanctions against Moscow have not stopped the war, haven't destroyed the Russian economy, and generally haven't achieved much. The global economy can't do without oil, gas, and other energy. So, whether you sanction or not, countries will buy oil and gas regardless. If Russia offers reasonable prices on energy in its region, neighboring countries will buy from Russia. Trump wants the opposite. He doesn't want India to stop buying Russian oil. He wants India to buy US oil! Trump wants to sell as much as possible, to keep dollars flowing into the US Treasury. If you don't want to buy US goods, you'll pay tariffs, filling the Treasury another way. So, as always, it all boils down to money. Remember the deal Trump signed with the EU? Brussels agreed to invest several hundred billion dollars in the US economy and to spend a similar amount on American energy. Trump is a businessman; he wants to sell. That is his whole policy.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. Weekly Preview. Lagarde, Inflation, and Nonfarm Payrolls



The EUR/USD currency pair should "come back to life" in the coming week. Over recent weeks, volatility has been low, and trending moves have been nearly absent. In fact, the decline in market activity is very noticeable in the chart below: over the last 14 trading days, daily volatility has exceeded 73 pips only three times. Most of the time, it was just 50-60 pips a day, despite a fundamental backdrop that continues to put strong pressure on the dollar. Recall that just last week, Donald Trump once again raised tariffs and could introduce a lot of new duties in the coming weeks, since he still cannot secure a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. This is an issue of great importance for Trump, as he is keen to win the Nobel Peace Prize. We believe he might still obtain it even without a truce between Russia and Ukraine, but his chances are indeed higher if such a truce is achieved. Since Moscow and Kyiv are still not rushing to the negotiating table, Trump may implement tariffs and sanctions against both "troublemakers." In addition, partners of the Kremlin who are active in buying oil, gas, and weapons may also suffer. India is already affected, but Russia's trade with India is not the only one that is impacted. Thus, a potential escalation in the trade war is possible already in September. Regarding the standoff between Trump and the Federal Reserve, this conflict also continues to intensify each week. There is no reason to expect that Trump will back off from the Fed or let it perform its duties as per the Constitution.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview. September 2. Houston, We Have a Problem



The GBP/USD currency pair also traded very calmly on Monday. While in the Eurozone, there was at least a speech by Christine Lagarde; in the UK and the US, however, there was not a single remotely interesting event throughout the day. But there is good news—this won't last for long. The chart below clearly shows that in recent weeks, the pair's volatility is rather "average." There is no pronounced flat, but the price still trades mainly in the same range, maintaining excellent prospects for further upward movement. We're already a bit tired of repeating in every article that the dollar still has no chance for growth, and with every day, it only gains more reasons for further decline. Recall that last week, Donald Trump raised tariffs for India as a means of pressuring Russia. And this week, Trump has already demanded that the European Union also impose tariffs on goods from India to increase pressure on Russia. Pressure on Moscow is needed by the US President so that a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia is signed as soon as possible. And Trump needs the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire not out of peaceful intentions, but to win the Nobel Peace Prize in October. That's the objective reality in 2025. Also, last week, Donald Trump tried to fire Federal Reserve monetary policy committee member Lisa Cook, and this week, another FOMC representative, Mary Daly, made a sharp turn to a dovish stance. As we suspected, the pressure on Jerome Powell and Lisa Cook had more meaning than many thought. Trump showed the entire FOMC committee that any hawks will be thoroughly scrutinized. Therefore, if anyone has any "skeletons in the closet," it's best to start voting for rate cuts as soon as possible, lest they be publicly exposed.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for September 3, 2025



EUR/USD After yesterday's spike in yields on European government bonds, the drop in the EuroStoxx50 stock index by 1.41% (DAX -2.29%), and the euro's fall by 0.67% with the perfect backdrop of a political crisis in France, it's becoming clear that a new financial crisis is starting right here—in Europe. We wrote about this on August 19 and were only waiting for the Fed to cut rates. But the market didn't wait. Maybe it's for the best, since euro buying volume had been declining over the last week—the "euro-optimists" hype suddenly subsided. Yesterday's sales volume ranked just below July 30, when the euro dropped 1.21%. The yield on French 5-year bonds reached 2.885%, a level last seen in December 2008. Technically, it could rise to the March 2008 support level of 3.38%. If that level is breached, a repeat of the crisis pattern from that time could occur—yields might climb to 4.94%. What about the US Manufacturing PMI? Quite good. The indicators came out slightly below forecasts but better than July: 53.0 versus 49.8 on the Markit estimate and 48.7 versus 48.0 on the ISM estimate.



On the daily chart, price is breaking below the support level at 1.1632; the Marlin oscillator has entered the downtrend territory. A target of 1.1495 is now opening up for the price. It seems likely the Nonfarm payrolls data will also not disappoint.

On the 4-hour chart, the price quickly retested the MACD line (red arrow) and dropped below the 1.1632 level. Marlin is in the negative zone. Now, all that's left is for the price to settle below the broken support.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview. September 4. The Pound Sterling Quickly Recovered from the Shock

The GBP/USD currency pair traded higher on Wednesday. In fact, we had warned that the pound sterling would not fall for long, and that its entire drop looked very much like market-maker manipulation. Consider this: UK bond yields have risen to their highest level since 1998. This is indeed bad, as demand for bonds is falling, inflation in the UK is rising, there are serious "holes" in the budget that need to be covered, and now bond yields are rising, which only increases budget expenditures. Of course, the pound sterling had every reason to fall. But there's a "small" inconsistency: in America, bond yields are rising too, and the US Appeals Court's cancellation of nearly all of Donald Trump's tariffs creates a risk that the US budget will miss out on tens or hundreds of billions of dollars. Trump has reconfigured the American economy, and now it is somewhat dependent on tariff revenues. Of course, Americans themselves pay these tariffs, but at this point, does it matter who pays? The fact remains that the US budget needs tariff revenues, as it has suffered significant losses from reduced imports into the US due to Trump's trade war. If US Treasury yields are also rising, then what reasons did the market have to sell the pound and buy the dollar at all? If the situation in both countries is basically the same? So, as we said yesterday, this move looks very much like a manipulation. Now we just have to wait a little while to understand whether that's really the case. Most interesting is that the dollar could well continue rising this week, with only two days left. If Thursday features only the US ISM Services PMI as a major event, then Friday will bring reports that the market has probably been waiting for three weeks. Recall that traders consider the labor market and inflation reports as crucial for upcoming changes to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If the Nonfarm Payrolls report disappoints for a fourth consecutive month, it will guarantee a rate cut at the September 16–17 meeting. Right now, it wouldn't take much for the dollar to fall.

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