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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forecast for EUR/USD on February 10, 2020 EUR/USD Friday's data on employment in the United States exceeded even optimistic forecasts; ...

      
   
  1. #601
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on February 10, 2020

    EUR/USD

    Friday's data on employment in the United States exceeded even optimistic forecasts; 225,000 jobs were created outside the agricultural sector in January against expectations of 163,000, the December figure was revised up to 147,000 from 145,000, the November Non-Farm Employment Change increased by 5,000, and the average hourly wage increased for the month by 0.2%. At the same time, the volume of consumer lending almost doubled – from 11.8 billion dollars to 22.1 billion. As a result, the euro fell by 36 points.

    The reduction targets remain: 1.0925 - minimum on September 3 and 12, 2019, and 1.0880 - minimum on October 1.



    On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the leading Marlin oscillator is directed upwards, which indicates that the indicator is likely to discharge and consolidate the price before a further decline.




    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  2. #602
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Overview of the GBP/USD pair. February 11. Today could be a black day for the pound

    4-hour timeframe



    Technical details:
    Higher linear regression channel: direction - up.
    Lower linear regression channel: downward direction.
    Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.
    CCI: -79.5400
    The GBP/USD currency pair continues to adjust on February 11. After the pair worked the Murray level "3/8" - 1.2878, there was a rebound, which provoked the beginning of the correction. Also there weren't any important publications or speeches by top officials in the United Kingdom and the United States on the first trading day of the week. Thus, traders were deprived of fundamental recharge on February 10. Therefore, Monday was, in principle, a good option for a correction, although we expected that the downward movement will continue. However, the Heiken Ashi indicator turned up and signaled a temporary break in the downward movement. It should also be noted that on Tuesday, that is, today, information from the UK that is of a very important degree of significance will come from the UK. Therefore, before such an important block of macroeconomic data, traders recorded part of the profit on short positions previously opened.

    Now we turn directly to macroeconomic statistics. The most significant indicator, of course, will be the indicator of GDP. However, you should immediately make a reservation that tomorrow there will be at least four variations of this indicator, moreover, with different values. For example, GDP for December will be published, that is, in monthly terms with a forecast of +0.2%. An estimate of GDP growth rates from NIESR for January will also be published with a forecast of +0.2%. Preliminary data on Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter in annual and quarterly terms with forecasts of +0.8% and +0.0% from the National Statistics Office will be published. We believe that it is the last two indicators that are the most significant. Take a look at the chart.



    Over the past three years, UK GDP has shown even more or less strong GDP growth. That is, each quarter there was an increase in comparison with the same quarter of the previous year by no less than 1.1%. 1.1% is, of course, not much, however. GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2019 indicate that growth rates may decline to 0.8% y/y. That is, for the first time in the last three years (and in fact for the first time since 2010), the growth rate will be less than 1% y/y. This is what we have repeatedly said when we covered the problem of a slow down in Great Britain's economy. The economy continues to lose money, problems associated with Brexit and the uncertainty surrounding the trade deal with the European Union continue to negatively affect the business climate and the desire of entrepreneurs to invest. Moreover, certain companies are leaving the UK, some are cutting production on its territory, some are moving their financial centers outside of Great Britain. Of course, all this negatively affects the economy.



    The next indicator is industrial production. Here things are even worse than with GDP. In annual terms, industrial production has been declining for a year and a half almost every month. Tomorrow it is expected that this indicator will lose its regular 0.8% in annual terms, and will add 0.3% in monthly terms. It is clear that even if the annual indicator is slightly better than expected, it is still unlikely to get out of the negative zone. Thus, both main indicators of tomorrow should significantly exceed forecast values in order to trigger purchases of the British pound.



    We would also like to draw the attention of traders to the indicator of the volume of commercial investments, which, although not as important as the first two indicators, still reflects the essence of what is happening. Judging by the data for the last 12 months, investment volumes are also more often declining than growing. For tomorrow, the forecast is -1.3% in the fourth quarter on an annualized basis. And what do we have in the end? The three most significant indicators for the UK economy over the past year and a half have only been doing so, which are declining. For tomorrow, all three indicators have negative forecasts. What growth of the British pound in the long run can be discussed with such macroeconomic statistics? We are still wondering why the Bank of England didn't soften monetary policy at the last meeting and where did it see "economic recovery after the December elections"? We notice only an even greater reduction in key indicators. And again, it is worth noting that all this happens before the official breakdown of all ties between London and Brussels, which is scheduled for December 31, 2020. That is, in fact, Brexit has not even begun. Now only preparations are underway for him.

    From a technical point of view, all indicators show a downward movement, except for the higher linear regression channel. Thus, the overall trading strategy remains the same - downward trading, especially since there are not even any corrections now.



    The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair has dropped to 91 points over the past five days, and the volatility illustration clearly shows that in the last 6 days it has been reduced. According to the current level of volatility, the working channel on February 11 will be limited by the levels of 1.2821 and 1.3003. The resumption of the downward movement would be very logical on Tuesday, given the fundamental background. A turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate the completion of a round of corrective movement.

    Nearest support levels:
    S1 - 1.2878
    S2 - 1.2817
    S3 - 1.2756

    The nearest resistance levels:
    R1 - 1.2939
    R2 - 1,3000
    R3 - 1.3062

    Trading recommendations:
    GBP/USD is adjusted.
    Thus, traders are now advised to wait until the correction is completed and resume selling the pound with goals of 1.2878 and 1.2821. It is recommended to consider purchases of the British currency after the price is consolidated above the moving average line with the first objectives of 1.3062 and 1.3123.

    In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
    Explanation of illustrations:
    The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.
    The smallest linear channel is the purple unidirectional lines.
    CCI - blue line in the indicator regression window.
    Moving average (20; smoothed) - a blue line on the price chart.
    Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
    Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
    Possible price movements:
    Red and green arrows.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
    Best regards, PR Manager
    Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

  3. #603
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Comprehensive analysis of movement options of #USDX vs AUD/USD vs USD/CAD vs NZD/USD (H4) on February 12

    Minuette (H4)
    Let's consider what will happen to commodity currency instruments from February 12, 2020. So, here's a comprehensive analysis of the development options for the movement #USDX vs AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD.

    US dollar index
    The movement of the #USDX dollar index from February 12, 2020 will be determined by developing and the direction of breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.63 - 98.83 - 99.05) of the Minuette operational scale forks. We look at the movement markings inside this zone on the animated chart.

    In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 98.63) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, it will lead to the development of the downward movement of the dollar index and be directed to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.20 - 97.92 - 97.64) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    On the contrary, If the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 98.40) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks and the final line FSL (resistance level of 99.12) of the Minuette operational scale forks are broken down, the upward movement #USDX can continue to the warning line UWL38.2 (99.60) of the Minuette operational scale forks and FSL Minuette end line (99.75). The markup of #USDX movement options from February 12, 2020 is shown on the animated chart



    Australian dollar vs US dollar

    The development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6699 - 0.6715 - 0.6731) of the Minuette operational scale forks will determine the development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD from February 12, 2020. The marking the development of the above levels are shown on the animated chart.

    The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel - resistance level of 0.6731 will lead to the Australian dollar reaching the equilibrium zone (0.6739 - 0.6764 - 0.6787) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of further development of the AUD / USD movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6780 - 0.6830 - 0.9875) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    A sequential breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks - support level of 0.6699 and the 1/2 Median Line Minuette 0.6690 will determine the continuation of the development of the downward movement of the Australian dollar towards the goals:
    - the initial SSL Minuette line (0.6655);
    - control line LTL Minuette (0.6644);
    - lower boundary ISL61.8 (0.6625) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
    with the prospect of reaching warning lines - LWL38.2 (0.6615) and LWL61.8 (0.6590) of the Minuette operational scale forks.
    We look at the layout of the AUD / USD movement options from February 12, 2020 on the animated chart.



    US dollar vs Canadian dollar

    The development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD from February 12, 2020 will continue to be determined by developing the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.3225 - 1.3276 -1.3333) of the Minuette operational scale forks. We look at the movement markings inside this zone on the animated chart.

    The breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (support level of 1.3225) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will continue the development of the downward movement of the Canadian dollar towards the goals:
    - lower boundary of ISL61.8 (1.3200) equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks;
    - final Schiff Line Minuette (1.3185);
    with the prospect of reaching the final line of the FSL Minuette (1.3115).
    On the other hand, a combined breakdown of the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 (resistance level of 1.3333) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks and the control line UTL Minuette (1.3345) will make the achievement of USD / CAD warning lines - UWL23.6 (1.3365) - UWL38.2 (1.3390) - UWL61.8 (1.3410) and UWL100.0 (1.3455) of the Minuette operational scale forks, relevant.
    We look at the markup of USD / CAD movement options from February 12, 2020 on the animated chart.



    New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

    The development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD from February 12, 2020 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

    resistance level of 0.6390 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks);
    support level of 0.6370 (control line LTL of the Minuette operational scale forks).

    In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6390, the NZD / USD movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.6390 - 0.6460 - 0.6525), and if the upper boundary (0.6525) of this channel is broken, the price of the instrument will continue to move in the equilibrium zone (0.6525 - 0.6575 - 0.6622) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    Alternatively, in case that the breakdown of the support level of 0.6420 takes place on the control line of the LTL of the Minuette operational scale forks, then it will be relevant to reach the New Zealand dollar reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6350 - 0.6255 - 0.6155) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    We look at the layout of the NZD / USD movement options from February 12, 2020 on the animated chart.



    The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

    The formula for calculating the dollar index:

    USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

    where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

    Euro - 57.6%;
    Yen - 13.6%;
    Pound Sterling - 11.9%;
    Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
    Swedish krona - 4.2%;
    Swiss franc - 3.6%.

    The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
    Best regards, PR Manager
    Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

  4. #604
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on February 13, 2020

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday's publication of data on industrial production in the eurozone was worse than expected - the December decline was-2.1% versus the expected -1.8%. In Europe, they talked about a potentially even greater economic failure due to the epidemic in China. But China itself predicts that the epidemic will decline in April. The euro lost 40 points on Wednesday. The 1.0880 target was fulfilled, there was a consolidation under the lower TF. The following goals are determined by Fibonacci levels: 161.8% - 1.0840, 200.0% - 1.0745.



    A convergence is outlined on the four-hour chart on the Marlin Oscillator, this is a sign of a slight correction before a further decline. Consolidation will likely take place before the level of 1.0905.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
    Best regards, PR Manager
    Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

  5. #605
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    EURUSD: euro not pleased with the European Commission's future outlook for eurozone inflation. US inflation report will return the market to its place

    The European currency was not very happy with the fact that consumer prices in Germany fell again in January, having justified all the forecasts of analysts, who put on another decline. The main decline in prices was due to a sharp drop in demand for tourism services, and there are reasons for this. According to the statistics agency Destatis, the final CPI of Germany in January 2020 fell by 0.6% compared to December and increased by 1.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The data fully coincided with the expectations of economists. As for inflation harmonized by EU standards, the index decreased by 0.8% in January compared to December and increased by 1.6% compared to January 2019.



    As I noted above, the main reason is the sharp decline in prices for travel packages that occurred due to the outbreak of coronavirus in China. After a series of bad indicators released this and that week on the eurozone countries, many economists no longer consider future forecasts for Europe to be too optimistic. However, today, in the first half of the day, after a breakdown of the year's low in the region of 1.0865, the European Commission kept a report from a larger fall of the euro, in which a number of experts expected to see revised forecasts for economic growth and inflation.



    Let me remind you that the European Commission's previous forecast was presented in November 2019.

    So, in today's report, the European Commission continues to forecast eurozone GDP growth in 2020 at 1.2% and at a similar level in 2021. But the inflation forecast, on the contrary, was revised for the better. Now economists expect that inflation in the eurozone will be at 1.3% in 2020 against the previous forecast of 1.2%. For 2021, growth is expected at 1.4% against the previous forecast of 1.3%.



    So far, the main concern that will negatively affect the eurozone economy is coronavirus, which represents a new bearish risk. There is also a fairly high degree of uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, which is an obstacle to improving sentiment. And if the trade agreement between the US and China has somewhat reduced the bearish risks, what will happen when the White House again raises the issue of duties with the eurozone is still a question.

    The European Commission expects that economic growth will remain stable, and all emphasis is placed on domestic demand, while easing fiscal policies may support the economy in the future. The report also called for eurozone countries to pursue structural reforms aimed at boosting economic growth.

    As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, buyers of risky assets continue to actively fight for the level of 1.0865, having missed that on inflation data in the US, one can only hope for lows in the areas of 1.0840 and 1.0800. If the scenario of profit taking on short positions by large players justifies itself after the data, then the upward correction will be limited by the first intermediate resistance level of 1.0890, but larger highs are seen in the areas of 1.0925 and 1.0950.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
    Best regards, PR Manager
    Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

  6. #606
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. Pound to closely monitor inflation and business activity in the industry

    24-hour timeframe

    As I noted above, the main reason is the sharp decline in prices for travel packages that occurred due to the outbreak of coronavirus in China. After a series of bad indicators released this and that week on the eurozone countries, many economists no longer consider future forecasts for Europe to be too optimistic. However, today, in the first half of the day, after a breakdown of the year's low in the region of 1.0865, the European Commission kept a report from a larger fall of the euro, in which a number of experts expected to see revised forecasts for economic growth and inflation.



    The British pound began to form a new downward trend, but a turn up and a round of upward correction began this trading week against the current weakest downward trend. Bollinger Bands are directed down, which so far retains the likelihood of a resumption of a downward trend. Also, the pound/dollar pair has not yet been able to cross the Kijun-sen line on the 24-hour chart, although it is very close to it. As we have already said, this week traders reacted not to macroeconomic statistics, but to political news from the British Parliament. And we believe that the pound once again shows growth when there is no reason at all for this. Over the past two years, this situation has been repeated regularly, the pound regularly rises in price on rumors that are not confirmed, on expectations, on various kinds of political messages. But macroeconomic statistics are just regularly ignored, as it was this week. The upcoming week will be much more interesting for the GBP/USD currency pair than for the EUR / USD pair, since there will be a sufficient amount of important data from Great Britain.

    Monday will be completely empty in terms of macroeconomic statistics. There is absolutely nothing to pay attention to. President's Day will be celebrated in the United States on Monday. Therefore, you can proceed to Tuesday. On this day, the UK will publish average wage for December with and without bonuses, the unemployment rate for December, as well as the number of applications for unemployment benefits. No major changes in these indicators are expected. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at a fairly low level of 3.8%, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits will amount to 22,600, and the growth rate of wages can only slightly slow down. Thus, everything will depend on how much the real values of the indicators differ from the predicted ones.

    A much more important consumer price index in the UK will be published on Wednesday, which, according to experts, could accelerate from 1.3% y/y to values ranging from 1.4% - 1.6% y/y. However, in monthly terms, inflation is likely to slow down by 0.5% - 0.6%, which, in fact, eliminates almost any positive effect from the annual value. Recall that the annual value is calculated relative to the same month last year. Thus, it turns out that the annual value can be at least +5%, but if negative inflation is recorded in monthly terms, this will mean that it will continue to slow down, and in the case of Great Britain, deflation can already be observed in monthly terms.

    Great Britain will release retail sales reports for January, as well as a CBI report on changes in industrial orders. It is expected that the first indicator will show an increase of 0.4% in annual terms and in monthly terms. This is a good increase for the monthly, while it is very weak for the annual. The second industrial order indicator, presented by the Confederation of British Industrialists, is expected to remain in the negative zone, since the British industry continues to experience serious problems.

    Britain is set to publish indices of business activity in the fields of services and production in the last trading week of the next week. In recent months, the index in the manufacturing sector has risen and returned to the area of 50.0 and higher, however it may again fall to the area below the key level of 50 by the end of February. According to forecasts, this indicator will decrease to the value 49.6 in February. As for the service sector, everything is more stable and positive here - forecasts for February are 53.2 - 53.4 with the previous value of 53.9. As you can see, a decline is expected everywhere.

    In general, we believe that the British currency will have no supporting macroeconomic factors next week. Having studied all the macroeconomic reports, we came to the conclusion that most of them could fail again. Of course, special attention should be paid to inflation, if it accelerates, this can cause a wave of purchases of the British currency, but in general we do not see the prerequisites for the UK economy to accelerate and macroeconomic indicators to recover. From time to time, individual indicators grow (for example, the index of business activity in industry), but this looks like a correction, after which a new decline will inevitably follow. Thus, the Bank of England has many questions about the current state of the British economy, as well as to monetary policy, which, in our opinion, should have already been softened.

    Trading recommendations:
    The pound/dollar pair started an upward correction on the 24-hour timeframe. Thus, at the moment, for the 24-hour timeframe, it is recommended that you aim for 1.2838 and 1.2724 for the pound, if the bulls fail to overcome the Kijun-sen critical line. Shorts are still more relevant on the 4-hour timeframe, but there you should now wait until a dead cross forms before resuming to trade down.

    Explanation of the illustration:
    Ichimoku indicator:
    Tenkan-sen is the red line.
    Kijun-sen is the blue line.
    Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
    Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
    Chikou Span - green line.
    Bollinger Bands Indicator:
    3 yellow lines.
    MACD indicator:
    line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
    Best regards, PR Manager
    Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

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