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This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator analysis. EUR/USD daily review on January 25, 2022 Trend analysis (Fig. 1) EUR/USD is likely ...

      
   
  1. #1101
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator analysis. EUR/USD daily review on January 25, 2022

    Trend analysis (Fig. 1) EUR/USD is likely to decline on Tuesday, from 1.1326 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1299, which is the 61.8% retracement level (red dotted line). After that it will return to the 14.6% retracement level at 1.1327 (yellow dotted line), then go further upwards.



    Fig. 1 (daily chart)
    Comprehensive analysis:
    Indicator analysis - downtrend
    Fibonacci levels - downtrend
    Volumes - downtrend
    Candlestick analysis - downtrend
    Trend analysis - uptrend
    Bollinger bands - downtrend
    Weekly chart - uptrend

    Conclusion: EUR/USD will dip from 1.1326 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1299 (red dotted line), then go to 1.1327, which is the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line). It may go further up after reaching that level.

    Alternatively, the pair could move from 1.1326 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to the lower fractal at 1.1290 (daily candle from 01/24/2022), then climb further to 1.1327, which is the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line).

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  2. #1102
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of Gold for January 26, 2022



    Gold is testing the symmetrical triangle resistance-line and a break above here and more importantly a break above 1,877 will confirm that wave 4 has completed and wave 5 towards 2,700 is in motion. As long as the triangle resistance-line is able to cap the upside we could see gold move a little lower to 1,812, but the downside should be limited and it should just be a matter of time before resistance at 1,877 is conquered and the rally towards 2,700 is in motion.

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  3. #1103
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 27, 2022

    So, at yesterday's FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve made it clear that the conditions for a rate hike are ripe, that rates can rise without a negative impact on the labor market, and the first increase will be in March. As a result of the day, the dollar index strengthened by 0.51%, the euro lost 60 points. The yield on 5-year US government bonds increased from 1.564% to 1.678%.

    On the whole, the Fed's decision, like any thesis of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, was expected. But the fall of the euro shows that the markets have not yet taken into account the beginning of the US rate hike cycle, as is sometimes expressed in the media. And, perhaps, this is the main idea that has matured as a result of yesterday.



    The price settled under both indicator lines on the daily chart under the balance line and the MACD line. The price is approaching the first bearish target (1.1170) as planned. Consolidation below the level will open the second target (1.1050).




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  4. #1104
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 28, 2022

    In line with the general weakening of regional currencies (the US dollar index rose 0.77% yesterday), the Australian dollar fell 81 points yesterday, overcame the first target level of 0.7065 and paused before the target level of 0.7007 this morning. The price drop below this level opens the next target at 0.6950.



    On the four-hour chart, by this morning, a weak price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator has formed. The aussie will probably rest a bit under the level of 0.7065 before it declines further.



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  5. #1105
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2022

    Last Friday, the euro consolidated under the target resistance level of 1.1170. We expected that this consolidation would precede a further decline towards 1.1050. And in order for the emerging price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator not to take place, otherwise there will be a price reversal upwards, a decrease, at least a small one, already by today.



    On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator rose high enough to reverse again. This signal line may still enter the consolidation range, marked with a gray area, but we expect a quick downward reversal from it.



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  6. #1106
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 1, 2022

    Yesterday, the Australian dollar made a corrective movement to the target level of 0.7065 - to the high of June 2020. This movement took place within the general downward movement, as the price still remains below the balance indicator line (red). The Marlin Oscillator is planning a downward reversal. Perhaps the correction will not continue. To confirm the resumption of decline, today should close below the level of 0.7065. Downside targets: 0.6950, 0.6870. Everything will be decided today after the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its decision on monetary policy.



    On the four-hour chart, the price stays at the level of 0.7065 for a suspiciously long time, supported by the weakly growing Marlin Oscillator, which has already settled in the positive area. An attempt to overcome the resistance of the MACD line (0.7104) is not ruled out. Success will lead to further growth to the next target level of 0.7171. If, nevertheless, the price settles under 0.7065, then the price development will go according to the main scenario in the near future. The first downside target is 0.6950.



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  7. #1107
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 2, 2022

    After yesterday's Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, which refrained from tightening rhetoric and with not very favorable statistics (retail sales in Australia decreased by 4.4% in December), but against the backdrop of a fall in the US dollar by 0.40%, the Australian dollar rose by 62 points, than formed a convergence with the Marlin Oscillator and approached the target level of 0.7171. When the price reaches this level, the Marlin Oscillator will reach the zero line - the border with the growth territory. This line is an independent support/resistance level. The synchronous achievement of levels by the price and the oscillator can become a reversal factor. Only the transition of the price above the MACD line, above the level of 0.7272, will become a condition for the medium-term price growth.

    On the H4 chart, the price has consolidated above the indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is almost in the overbought zone, which creates a very early and very weak sign of a possible reversal from resistance 0.7171. We are waiting for the development of events.

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  8. #1108
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 3, 2022

    The euro ended Wednesday with a growth of 30 points, and the price even settled above the MACD indicator line of the daily scale. Price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator is developing. Of course, at first glance, a reversal situation has been created and the target level of 1.1450 is open, but there are several factors hindering growth. The strongest of them is an emerging reversal in adjacent markets - technical signs of a fall have developed in oil and stock indices. A weak factor, but developing in the future, is the reversal of the Marlin Oscillator before the border with the growth territory, which, together with the presence of the balance indicator line (red) above the price, indicates that the euro has grown over the past four days as a correction.



    Thus, there is a possibility of the price returning under the MACD line and its subsequent fall to the target level of 1.1060. To confirm the growth, one more day must pass above the MACD line so that Marlin can move into the positive area and confirm this growth.



    On the H4 chart, the price is above both indicator lines, Marlin is in growth territory, but is turning down from the overbought zone. The departure of the price under the MACD line, below 1.1250, will confirm the corrective nature of the growth of the euro over the past four days.

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  9. #1109
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 4, 2022

    The outcome of yesterday's European Central Bank meeting, at which it was said that the central bank was not going to delay the rate hike for a long time, was a picture of investors leaving US values: the S&P 500 stock index collapsed by 2.44%, the yield on 5-year government bonds increased from 1, 60% to 1.67%, gold fell by 1.05% at the moment, but was successfully bought back, the dollar index fell by 0.68%. Against this background, the growth of the USD/JPY pair looks correlationally weak, except perhaps as a result of the growth of EUR/JPY cross rates by 1.69% and GBP/JPY by 0.68%.



    Today, if the markets grow on optimistic US employment data (the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is 110-150,000), the dollar may continue its inertial growth towards the resistance of the MACD line (115.40), but there is a high probability of weaker data, up to negative, as it was on Wednesday for ADP Non-Farm, where the index showed -301,000 against the expectation of 185,000, and then we expect the USD/JPY pair to fall and take a course for further decline to 113.32 - to the monthly price channel line .



    On the H4 chart, the price is still under the red balance indicator line, that is, yesterday's growth was clearly within the correction. The Marlin Oscillator is staying in the negative area. Overcoming the price of the MACD line (114.38) will return the price to the downward direction. We are waiting for the release of US data.

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  10. #1110
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 7, 2022

    Last Friday, despite strong data on employment in the US, the euro was traded at the target level of 1.1450, having reached the high of the day, the peak on January 14th. Consolidating below this level will be the first sign of a price reversal into a deep correction, back to the MACD line, to the level of 1.1300. Along with a consolidation below 1.1450, a divergence with the Marlin Oscillator may be completed. Let's also assume a growth to 1.1496, which looks stronger than 1.1450 as it is the top of stronger reversals in March 2020 and October 2015. The divergence in this case will become more significant. Consolidating above 1.1496 will become a condition for growth to the target range of 1.1700/22.



    The Marlin Oscillator is falling sharply on the four-hour chart. The probability of a reversal scenario is 60%. But this reversal is likely only for a correction to the 1.1300 area, from which the euro may turn upward. Consolidating under the MACD line of the daily scale (below 1.1300), further medium-term weakening of the European currency is possible.



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