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This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 22, 2022 Yesterday, the Australian dollar once again tried to reach ...

      
   
  1. #1121
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 22, 2022

    Yesterday, the Australian dollar once again tried to reach the target level of 0.7227, the high of the day was 0.7224, and the closing of the daily candle, like the last three days, was under the indicator balance line. This may mean that the bulls potentially do not have the strength to break through the resistance of 0.7227. The price decline under the MACD line, breaking Friday's low at 0.7168, opens the target at 0.7065 (the high of June 2020). The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is still in the positive area, this circumstance makes it difficult for the bulls to consolidate. The Australian dollar also supports the rise in commodity prices. Under the general offensive of the US dollar, the AUD/USD will also fall, only its fall will be slower than the European currencies. Target at 0.7065.



    On the H4 chart, Marlin is already ready to move into the area of negative values, formally it is already on it. The price should overcome the MACD line (0.7175). The MACD lines coincide on the daily and H4 scales, respectively, overcoming them by the price will create a solid basis for further downward movement.



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  2. #1122
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 23, 2022

    Yesterday, the British pound made a systematic attempt to fall towards the target level of 1.3513, but it was prevented by rising European and Asian currencies. It closed the day with a decrease of only 16 points, which was covered by growth this morning. But the price is still staying under the level of 1.3606 and under the balance indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator is moving exactly along the zero line. The downward potential is not wasted, we are waiting for a new attempt to reach the bearish target of 1.3513. Below it is the 1.3484 target the MACD line.



    On the four-hour chart, the price appears to have settled below the MACD line, and Marlin is still staying in negative territory. If the price manages to settle above 1.3606, then the road to 1.3730 will open (support on June 2 and September 8, 2021). If the price reverses from resistances, just as Marlin reverses from the border with the growth territory, then the level of 1.3513 will have to try hard to withstand the price pressure.



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  3. #1123
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 24, 2022

    After yesterday's attempt to go above the balance indicator line of the daily timeframe, the price moved down with even greater determination, closed the day with a black candle, and this morning it crosses the area under the MACD indicator line and the target level of 1.1280. The euro is now set on a path to a target level of 1.1060, the approximate low of February 1994.



    The price firmly settled below the balance line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator rushed down with force after consolidating at the zero line. The situation is going down.



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  4. #1124
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 25, 2022

    Technical Market Outlook

    The GBP/USD pair has made a massive reversal candlestick on H4 time frame chart after hitting the level of 1.3277. The big short-squeeze has hit the level of 38% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3414 and made a local high at 1.3437. The oversold market conditions and increasing momentum support the short-term bullish market outlook. The next target for bulls is seen at 1.3484 and the immediate technical support is located at 1.3370.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.3817
    WR2 - 1.3724
    WR1 - 1.3655
    Weekly Pivot - 1.3572
    WS1 - 1.3510
    WS2 - 1.3417
    WS3 - 1.3348

    Trading Outlook:
    The up trend is being continued, but the up move might be terminated due to the Shooting Star candlestick pattern made at the daily time frame chart at the level of 1.3717. The overall move from the level of 1.3170 looks like a V-shape reversal pattern, so in the long-term the trend might be about to change from the multi-month down trend to the up trend. Please keep an eye on the level of 1.3500, because any sustained breakout below this level will change the outlook back to the bearish again.



    The price firmly settled below the balance line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator rushed down with force after consolidating at the zero line. The situation is going down.

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  5. #1125
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 28, 2022

    This morning the major currencies opened with a falling gap. For the euro, this gap amounted to 145 points, in the Asian session the gap was closed by half. If the planned negotiations between Russia and Ukraine still begin in the near future, then the euro will be able to completely close the morning window, returning to the level of 1.1280, but then we still expect further weakening of the single currency amid all the uncertainty and fears associated both directly with Ukraine and and with economic implications for the global economy. The Federal Reserve's double rate hike on March 16th puzzles market participants again.



    On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned down from the upper border of its own descending channel. At the same time, price convergence with the oscillator also takes place. Closing a gap followed by a downward price reversal fits well with these charting tools. Ultimately, we are waiting for the price at the target level 1.1060, and consolidating the price below it will open the target 1.0910.



    On the four-hour chart, Marlin's signal line turned down from the zero line. The situation is completely downward, and the whole question is whether the gap will close or not. It is quite possible that the gap will be closed much later, after the price declines to the level of 1.0910. This can happen if the Fed refuses to raise the rate at the March meeting due to fears of a subsidence of the economy in connection with the escalation of geopolitical tensions.

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  6. #1126
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 1, 2022

    Yesterday, the Australian dollar showed good growth, closed the gap, but it has not hit the 0.7291 target. Perhaps the price will go a little higher, to the high on January 13 (0.7315). Rising above this level will mean that investors are confident that the Federal Reserve will not raise the rate at the next meeting on March 16th. The main scenario assumes a corrective decline after hitting the target range of 0.7291-0.7315. The Marlin Oscillator on the daily indicates a slowdown in the trend.



    The situation is completely ascending on the H4 chart: the price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is growing in the positive area. Active growth in commodities supports the aussie's optimism.



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  7. #1127
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 2, 2022

    Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair settled below the balance indicator line of the daily scale and below the target level of 115.07 (peak on January 18). The Marlin Oscillator appears to have settled in the area of the downward trend. The US stock index S&P 500 lost 1.55% yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 is down 1.71% in today's Asian session. All these technical circumstances increase the likelihood of a downward movement with the target at 113.36.



    On the four-hour chart, the local price growth of the last 3-4 candles occurs below the balance indicator line, which indicates the corrective nature of this growth. The Marlin Oscillator in the negative area. The signal to continue the decline, to accelerate the pace, will be the transition of the price under yesterday's low at 114.71.



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  8. #1128
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for March 03, 2022



    Technical outlook:
    EURUSD dropped through 1.1057 lows in the late New York Session on Wednesday before finding support and pulling back. The single currency pair then rallied through 1.1140 levels taking out short term resistance. Prices are retracing a bit at the time of writing trading close to 1.1100-05 levels and bulls are expected to be back in control soon.

    EURUSD needs to stay above 1.1057 interim support/low to keep the near term bullish scenario intact. The recent drop between 1.1500 and 1.1057 could be the last leg lower as it has been accompanied by a strong bullsh divergence on the RSI. High probability remains for a bullish reversal from here and push through 1.1500 near term.

    EURO bulls are preparing to stage an impressive rally in the next few trading sessions targeting 1.1500 resistance. A break there will confirm that bulls have registered themselves and are here to stay for long. A push through 1.1143 from here will accelerate towards 1.1200 and 1.1300 levels immediately.

    Trading plan:

    Potential rally through 1.1500 against 1.1000

    Good luck!

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  9. #1129
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 4, 2022

    The euro fell by 50 points on Thursday. The lower shadow of the daily candle was the puncture of the target level of 1.1060, this morning the euro is losing about 50 more points, so the road to the nearest target of 1.0910 is open. Breaking the level will open the second target at 1.0825. Things are moving towards the fact that the double gap around the level of 1.1280 (marked with a gray rectangle) will not be closed, as it already accepts a different technical interpretation of the double gap not being closed as a sign of a long-term trend. We suspect that the euro is moving towards below parity in the not too distant future.



    The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator went down from its own channel, intending to enter the oversold zone.

    The 4-hour chart shows how the price paused at the target level of 1.1060 and accelerated the decline. Marlin's signal line exits the triangle down. We are waiting for a further decline in the euro to the specified goals.



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  10. #1130
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 7, 2022

    Crypto Industry News:
    The Korean Digital Asset Industry Committee, made up of South Korea's leading Blockchain experts, has called for a government committee to be formed to help and develop digital asset companies in the country.

    The expert group discussed the various ways in which Korea could become a leading marketplace for digital assets and what role the government should play to achieve this. Experts believe Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies will become key tools of the fourth industrial revolution.

    Experts called on the government to support the nascent cryptocurrency industry and other emerging use cases such as decentralized finance, decentralized autonomous organizations, NFT tokens and metaverse.

    South Korea's cryptocurrency laws are seen as one of the strictest, considering that nearly 200 small and medium-sized cryptocurrency exchanges had to shut down after regulators issued an injunction for crypto exchanges to create accounts with real usernames.

    The Financial Conduct Authority, the country's chief regulator, also banned exchanges from conducting anonymous transactions and banned the use of private wallets. Regulators previously proposed a 20% tax on cryptocurrency profits, but the proposal was postponed due to a lack of clarity on cryptocurrency laws. While regulators have taken a strict stance on the virtual asset market, they seem quite positive about the Metaverse as the country announced $187 million investment for the domestic Metaverse project.

    Technical Market Outlook
    The ETH/USD pair had broken below all of the Fibonacci retracement levels after the rejection from the technical resistance seen at $3,000 level. The bears are in control of the market and the target for them is located at the swing low seen at $2,302. The momentum is weak and negative, so even despite the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame the down move might continue for some time. The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of $2,568. Only a clear and sustained breakout above the trend line resistance located around $3,024 level would change the outlook to bullish in the near time.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $3,323
    WR2 - $3,179
    WR1 - $2,855
    Weekly Pivot - $2,718
    WS1 - $2,386
    WS2 - $2,240
    WS3 - $1,190

    Trading Outlook:

    The market keeps trying to bounce higher after over the 50% retracement made since the ATH at the level of $4,868 was made. The level of $3,192 is the next key Fibonacci retracement for bulls, but the bulls had failed to break through three times already. On the other hand, the next long-term technical support is located at $1,721 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term.



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