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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for September 5, 2025



EUR/USD The euro has not yet managed to break (even on a daily close) below the support level at 1.1632 ahead of today's US employment data. The Marlin oscillator has spent the last three days right at the border between trends, clearly signaling neutrality.

Yesterday's ADP private sector employment data showed an increase of 54K jobs, against a forecast of 73K. The numbers don't diverge much. Similarly, today for Nonfarm Payrolls, we expect data to be around the estimates of 75K. Is this a good result? Yes, it's a good figure—especially considering that since the start of the year (or since Q4 of last year), "competent authorities" say there have been month-to-month upward revisions of about 60K per month for nonfarms. We believe that major players have already digested the whole labor market picture, now viewing it as not weak, but weakening. If we assume market participants refrain from speculative action, the single currency could continue sideways until the Fed meeting. On the other hand, the euro's gains over the past 6-8 months have largely priced in a double Fed rate cut—and even a nonfarm result just a bit above forecast could put pressure on the euro. This has been our main scenario for months. So, the euro's first target is 1.1495—the June 5th high.



On the four-hour chart, price has reached the MACD line and the balance line; the Marlin oscillator's signal line has reached the zero line. The situation is "completely neutral"—in any case, it's uninformative and calls for just one thing: wait for the news. The range between 1.1632 and 1.1670 appears to be an ideal area for waiting for those releases.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. September 8. Will the "Great Economic Future" Arrive Soon?



On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair posted a relatively strong upward move, triggered, of course, by US labor market and unemployment data. A month earlier, Donald Trump lashed out at the US National Bureau of Statistics over the downward revision of Nonfarm Payrolls for June and July. It's still unclear what the Bureau and its now-former director Erica MacAnterfer were supposedly guilty of, but the August Nonfarms report proved one thing—there were no mistakes or malicious activity. The US labor market continues to "fall" as a result of Trump's policies. All experts are convinced of this, but you don't need to be an expert to see it—just compare the obvious facts and their timing. Trump became president in January; in April, he imposed large-scale import tariffs, and in May, the labor market began to shrink. Yes, it was May—not June—when the first major drop in new jobs was recorded. In April, 158,000 new jobs were created; in May, only 19,000. What's more, the June figure was revised down again to -13,000. So, over the past four months, the US economy has created just 107,000 new jobs. For reference, before Trump, the US economy routinely created 150,000–200,000 jobs each month. The results of Trump's policies are clear for all to see. Of course, the president keeps touting a bright future, upcoming economic growth, and a return to US greatness after Biden. But all key macroeconomic indicators are falling—even after the economy has "digested" the tariffs and all their fallout. Take, for example, the ISM Manufacturing Index—until February 2025, it grew, but has only fallen since. The ISM Services Index has stagnated below 2024 averages. Inflation began rising in April from its recent years' lows. Everywhere you look, indicators are falling, and only GDP is rising. As many experts have said, the economy is showing artificial growth. If tariffs push up the price of goods and raw materials, then GDP rises, government revenues spike, and taxes rise too. That's why we saw strong economic growth data for Q2. But who cares about GDP growth if unemployment rises, the labor market cools, inflation climbs, business activity wanes, and investment declines? The dollar remains the main "beneficiary" of Trump's policy—though with a minus sign. The US currency is "taking all the hits" from Trump, and it serves a purpose: Trump doesn't want a strong dollar, since he desperately wants to boost exports. For now, export growth is achieved only through "gun-to-the-head" trade deals, and even then, there aren't many new deals.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for September 9, 2025



EUR/USD The euro managed to rise above the MACD indicator line and hold above it. The Marlin oscillator is rising, and the price may reach the upper boundary of the price channel around 1.1880.

Today, US producer inflation data will be released; tomorrow, the CPI, and on Thursday, the European Central Bank will present its updated monetary policy outlook. The extension of the rate-cutting pause, as well as overheated expectations for the Federal Reserve (three cuts by year-end), are currently pushing the euro up. But here's the issue: the forecast for US CPI in August is 2.9% y/y versus 2.7% y/y in July. With this level of inflation—which brings us back to January of this year—even a single rate cut comes into question. The probability of a cut in September is assessed by investors at 92.6%, in October (another 0.25%) at 82.8%, and in December (to a final rate of 3.75%) at 71.0%. But even now, two cuts are already priced in. A sharp unwinding of these expectations could lead to a devastating drop in the European currency. Yields on US government bonds are noticeably below the current 4.50% rate; only 20-year bonds have a yield of 4.65% (30-year bonds yield 4.69%). Therefore, the Fed will still be forced to cut rates in September, but will give a very strong signal that there will be no more cuts until the end of the year. Thus, regardless of the ECB's decision on Thursday, and whatever the market reaction—other than downward—it could turn out to be a false move.

On the H4 chart, there's nothing to prevent the price from continuing to climb. Even the MACD line is turning upward. We are expecting further euro growth and the FOMC meeting.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. September 10. How Does Trump Affect the Dollar? Globally



The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively quietly throughout Tuesday—at least until the publication of the annual Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, as we've said many times, one report (no matter what it is) cannot reverse the trend or instantly change trader sentiment. That's why in our fundamental articles, we won't even discuss the NonFarm Payrolls report; we'll cover it in the "Trading Recommendations" section. After a three-week pause, the US dollar is falling again. As we warned several times over these last three weeks, the dollar had—and still has—no factors for growth. If anything, quite the opposite. In these three weeks, enough news arrived essentially "instructing" the market to keep dumping the US currency. This includes failed macroeconomic statistics in the US, Donald Trump's "firing" of Lisa Cook, and the raising of tariffs against India in retaliation for their refusal to stop buying Russian oil, gas, and arms. As we can see, the trade war is only escalating, with Trump now using tariffs as leverage against certain countries to achieve his own geopolitical goals, while still demanding the Fed cut rates. Therefore, all the factors that pushed the dollar down in the first 7–8 months of 2025 remain in force. But beyond those, there are new ones as well. For example, starting in September, the gap between ECB and Fed rates will begin to narrow—and we expect it to narrow quickly. In theory, the euro shouldn't have risen so much in the first half of the year, since the ECB was cutting rates that whole time. Imagine how powerful Trump's impact on the dollar was, that even as the ECB was easing, the euro still rose! In the second half, the Fed will be the one cutting rates. So what should we expect from the dollar if it fell even when the Fed kept hawkish policy settings?

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for EUR/USD on September 11 – The Market Has Lost Direction and Common Sense

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis



The EUR/USD pair posted completely illogical moves on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, following the release of the annual NonFarm Payrolls report (which, unsurprisingly, disappointed), the US dollar rose. Then on Wednesday, when the dollar had every chance to fall again, there was no decline in the US currency—even though the Producer Price Index showed a drop of 0.1%. Historically, the PPI figure is usually around 0.2–0.3%. The slowdown could indicate simply a correction after the previous month's surge (when prices rose by 0.9%), as well as the minimal impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on inflation. However, low inflation still (potentially) implies an even more dovish attitude from the Fed at next week's meeting. Tomorrow brings the ECB meeting, but traders shouldn't expect much. The ECB has effectively ended its rate-cutting cycle, having achieved its target inflation level. Given that global trade wars may slightly accelerate inflation in the near term, even within the EU, the central bank is unlikely to cut rates or signal a decrease soon. Again, this works in the euro's favor. Thus, we continue to expect only further growth from the single currency. On the 5M timeframe, there was a total flat market and low volatility yesterday. There was no sense in trading, even though traders might have tried to trade the initial signals near the critical line. But by the US session, it became clear that there would be no real moves or solid signals.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis



On the hourly chart, EUR/USD took the first step toward forming a new upward trend, but the market has been in a sideways flat for several weeks since. Formally, we now see a new upward trend developing, as shown by the trendline. However, the pair still spends most of its time in the 1.1615–1.1750 range. There are still plenty of negative factors for the dollar, and even this week, it could have fallen practically every day. For September 11, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1660) and Kijun-sen (1.1706) Ichimoku lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be considered when identifying signals. Don't forget to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction to avoid potential losses in case of a false signal. On Thursday, the ECB decision will be announced in the EU, and the US will publish inflation data. Neither is expected to produce any shockwaves. Current inflation is already unlikely to influence the Fed's September 17 rate decision. Trading Recommendations On Thursday, the price may finally resume its upward movement, in line with the current trend, fundamentals, and macroeconomic background. Decline is possible only if the ECB maintains a dovish tone or if US inflation is low.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. September 12. The ECB Failed to Surprise Traders



The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly during most of Thursday—at least, up until the US inflation report came out, which is now much more important than the ECB meeting. But more on that later. Let's remember that volatility has noticeably declined over the last one and a half to two months, which, perhaps not coincidentally, matches the period when there's been no trending movement in the market. So, the market has effectively taken a pause and seems in no hurry to end it. From our point of view, the US dollar still has plenty of fundamental reasons to keep falling—reasons we discuss constantly. Any strengthening of the dollar should be viewed as a normal correction; any US dollar decline is entirely logical. Yesterday, the European Central Bank left all three key rates unchanged for the second time in a row, which surprised absolutely no one. The ECB has achieved its goal of stabilizing inflation around 2%. And since Donald Trump is not the president of the European Union, there's no need to worry about runaway or unexpected price growth. In America, Donald Trump ignores rising inflation. He doesn't seem to care how much consumer prices are rising. After all, American consumers will pay for all the import tariffs, not China or India. If Americans are willing to pay more for all imported goods in silence, then they'll also have to put up with inflation. Meanwhile, for public opinion and headlines, Trump will lower some taxes, primarily benefiting the wealthy. In the Eurozone, the situation is totally different. The ECB consistently worked toward its 2% inflation goal and achieved it. At that point, the ECB's key interest rate was down to 2.15%, and the deposit rate to 2%. Since inflation isn't decreasing further, no additional monetary easing is needed. So, the ECB's rate decision came as no surprise.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Donald Trump Prepares New Tariffs



In recent weeks, the market has entered a state of relative calm. This is clearly reflected in the US dollar, which, despite everything, is in no hurry to keep declining. I can't say we're seeing a classic sideways trend or a change in the wave pattern, but market activity has dropped, price swings are small, and there is no mass dollar selloff as before. This could be explained by the uncertainty over what to expect from the FOMC over a one-year horizon (due to the complicated situation involving Donald Trump), and because the US president hasn't recently announced or implemented new tariffs. Trump's attention is now entirely focused on trying to stop the conflict in Ukraine. The White House leader still wants to be the world's chief peacemaker and is putting all his effort into ending the war. Unfortunately, Trump's idea of "effort" means threats, blackmail, and tariffs—not actual compromise or solutions satisfying both sides. This week, Trump announced his readiness to introduce sweeping new tariffs against India and China in response to their purchases of energy from Russia. According to Trump, these measures will push Russian President Vladimir Putin toward negotiations. After the memorable (some say historic) Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska, talks stalled—and there's been no real progress. As I've written before, the problem may not be so much Trump as it is the stances of Kyiv and Moscow. A lot of diverse information emerges about each side's conditions for resolution. Sometimes, two politicians from the same side voice completely different demands or hint at varied compromises at the talks. Overall, the situation seems as follows. Russia wants Ukraine to withdraw troops from territories not even occupied yet, demands demilitarization, "denazification," a change of government in Kyiv, a reduction of the Ukrainian army, and guarantees that Ukraine won't join NATO.

Kyiv wants to keep its current military strength, asks for international security guarantees, wants to join the EU, and, at best, is willing to freeze the conflict along the current front line but refuses to recognize all occupied territories as Russian. As you can see, the sides are worlds apart in their requirements, and not even Trump can bridge such a gap.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Review. September 16. Trump couldn't resist another jab at the Fed



On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued to move higher within the trend that has developed over recent weeks. The upward move is still modest but entirely consistent with the general character and pace of the market. The question of why the dollar is falling again, even though there were no reasons for it on Monday, should not even arise. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve will almost certainly decide to cut the key rate, and for the market, this factor is like a red rag to a bull. The factor of Fed monetary policy easing has been priced in by the markets for a long time, back when U.S. inflation first began to slow. For a while, we believed this factor had been priced in "in advance," and even excessively so. However, conditions and circumstances in 2025 have changed dramatically. Now the dollar requires only fairly formal reasons to decline. A Fed rate cut is not merely a formal reason but a very real one. The market also does not currently understand what the outlook for monetary policy will be through the end of 2025 and into next year. The fact that the Fed is prepared to cut rates twice is as clear as day. But what happens next? It's not only about the weakness of the U.S. labor market anymore. The key issue is that Donald Trump is pressuring the Fed almost daily. For example, over the weekend, he once again demanded a rate cut, and not by "a meager 0.25%." If Trump were only making demands, perhaps this wouldn't be such a troubling factor for the dollar. But Trump is not just demanding; he is trying to remove all FOMC members who refuse to vote for a cut.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. September 17. Historic Fed Meeting. On the Eve



The EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday clearly showed what traders expect in the near future. Despite a very weak macroeconomic backdrop, the euro rose all day and broke above the July 1 high, which was also the highest value in the last three years. For us, there's really nothing surprising here, as we've said many times: the dollar has no chance to grow, except for technical corrections. Over the last five weeks, upward movement has been quite weak, but the euro keeps climbing, not the dollar. The dollar more or less corrected for about a month, and now the decline has resumed. Granted, this is no longer a collapse like in the first half of 2025—but it's still a decline. Today, the US will announce the results of the Fed meeting, the sixth this year. Only three meetings remain before year-end—all of which could bring rate cuts. At least, for traders, this is now the base case they believe in. However, it's worth noting that in recent years, the market has always expected the "dovish" actions from the Fed and has never quite gotten them. So, we seriously doubt we'll see all three cuts by year-end. Jerome Powell keeps repeating the same thing: monetary policy will depend entirely on macroeconomic data. Yes, the labor market has been weakening for four months in a row, so it seems obvious to everyone that aid is needed. And that's probably true. But what if the labor market starts recovering as soon as September? And if it continues in October? Would three rate cuts still be needed this year?

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. September 18. Three Doves Inside the Fed



On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair traded more calmly than on Tuesday, when euro quotes were rising throughout the day in geometric progression. Of course, this applies only to the time before the Fed's meeting results and Powell's press conference. As usual, we won't review either the meeting outcome or the post-event market movements here. We continue to believe that such important events require time for thorough analysis. Moreover, markets often trade impulsively and emotionally on those days, so technical conclusions cannot be drawn from the immediate moves. Quite often, the Fed's meeting swings don't fit into the overall technical picture at all, and are better ignored afterwards. Sometimes the pair flies in one direction only to return to its starting point the very next day. We will make conclusions once the dust settles. For now, we can say that the "dovish wing" inside the Fed is expanding, albeit very slowly. Currently, only three members are ready to vote for a rate cut at every meeting—Stephen Mirran, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman. Notably, all three were appointed by Donald Trump. Here, one can see Trump's influence at play. The Fed may not be a "fly-by-night operation," but in practice, it could start looking like one.

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