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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 13, 2024

The dollar successfully resists all attempts to push it below key technical levels (150.83, 152.16) in its battle against the yen. This resilience is partly due to the dollar's overall strengthening in the market and the time remaining before the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 19.

However, caution is warranted regarding the pair's current growth trajectory. After the price surpasses the intermediate resistance level of 152.16, the first target is 153.60. This level gains additional support from the balance line. At the same time, the Marlin oscillator could reach the boundary of its growth zone as the price approaches this level, potentially reversing from there. If the price manages to break through 153.60, the next intermediate level at 154.72 (the November 7 peak) comes into play. A reversal could occur from this point, forming a false breakout above 153.60. This move may coincide with the Bank of Japan meeting.

On the H4 chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned upward from the lower boundary of its extended consolidation range. Indicator lines also point towards growth, and the price has consolidated above the 152.16 level. The target at 153.60 is now open.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 16, 2024

On Friday, the euro rebounded from the technical support level at 1.0461, closing the day with a 37-pip gain. During today's Pacific session, the pair continues its upward movement..

The Marlin oscillator has returned to the growth zone, which could indicate that the previous downward move (highlighted by the gray rectangle) was a false dip. Even if a breakout above doesn't occur (target at 1.0667), the bullish target of 1.0598 has been established. The euro will likely remain within the 1.0461–1.0598 range until the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has also shifted into the growing trend zone. If the price breaks above the MACD line resistance at 1.0538, the 1.0598 level will become the active target.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for December 17, 2024

The euro continues its slow technical upward movement within the trading range of 1.0461–1.0598, awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate decision. The Marlin oscillator has firmly entered positive territory, suggesting that the single currency's upward movement may continue today.

However, if the price reverses following the Fed meeting, it does not necessarily have to reach the 1.0598 resistance level, as the overall trend remains bearish. The balance line (red moving average) may act as an insurmountable obstacle, similar to what occurred on December 6 (as indicated by the arrow).

On the 4-hour chart, the price is rising below the MACD line (1.0543). Consolidation above 1.0543 will increase the probability of testing 1.0598. The price appears to be narrowing its consolidation range, approximately 1.0461–1.0543.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Forecast for December 18, 2024

On Tuesday, the British pound rose by 27 pips, closing the day below the 1.2708 resistance level after briefly breaching it during the session. Today, the pound starts slightly weakening as the balance line reinforces the reached level. Today's focus will be on the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by 0.25%, with consideration for the Bank of England's expected decision to maintain rates tomorrow.

From a purely technical standpoint, the pound has all the conditions for a potential move into the 1.2816/47 range, even as a false breakout against the market trend, with a subsequent return below the 1.2616 level if the market adopts a downward direction. However, the current sentiment for the pound appears slightly bearish, as the Marlin oscillator hints at a reversal.

On the H4 chart, the price did not manage to break above the balance line resistance. There was no consolidation above the 1.2708 level. Marlin is moving in tandem with the price. Without breaking the reversal setup, the price may test the MACD line resistance at 1.2750. A break above the MACD line would open the target range of 1.2816/47.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for December 19, 2024

At yesterday's FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the rate by the anticipated 0.25%. However, the FOMC projected only two rate cuts for the upcoming year, compared to the market's expectation of three. This led the euro to fall by 139 pips. Yet, the most notable event of the day was the 2.95% drop in the S&P 500. The index erased three weeks of gains in a single day. The technical picture indicates a crisis scenario, as we mentioned last week in the analysis titled "The U.S. Stock Market Ends the 'Trump Rally' on December 10", suggesting further developments in this direction.

On the daily chart, the euro has reached the 1.0350 target level. As of Thursday morning, the price is undergoing a slight correction. After this correction, we expect the price to move below this level and continue its decline toward the next target at 1.0250. If a divergence forms at this level, a deeper correction could follow. If not, further decline toward 1.0135 is possible.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator begins easing out of the oversold zone, signaling a minor recovery. Once the market stabilizes, we anticipate another attempt to break the 1.0350 support, followed by a move toward 1.0250.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for December 23, 2024


On Friday, the euro completed its correction from the December 17-18 price decline. Assuming that the correction is incomplete, a move above 1.0461 would invalidate investors' plans regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

The Marlin oscillator also signals the end of the correction, as it begins to turn downward without reaching the growth territory boundary. A gradual decline to the support level at 1.0250 appears logical. Considering the thinning market ahead of the Catholic holidays, strong orders may already be absent at the 1.0350 level.

The four-hour chart shows the price's growth from the 1.0350 support occurred below the balance line (red moving average). The Marlin oscillator moved above the zero line, but this could be a false move, confirming a reversal toward a new low at 1.0250.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for December 30, 2024

As the New Year approaches, the currency market remains relatively stable, although there are signs of a potential strong dollar rally across all financial markets. One key indicator is the recent decline in the stock market; on Friday, the S&P 500 fell by 1.11%. We anticipate a significant drop in stock indices, which is likely to affect counter-dollar currencies as well.

Today, Japan's Manufacturing PMI showed an increase from 49.0 to 49.6 in December's estimate, suggesting a high likelihood that today's Chicago PMI will also reflect growth (expected 42.7 compared to November's 40.2). Given this, a rise in the euro seems unlikely. Additionally, the EUR/USD pair is currently facing strong technical resistance at 1.0461. The Marlin oscillator has reached the zero line and is now turning downward, indicating that a break below the 1.0350 support level is expected in the early days of January.

On the H4 chart, the price has reached the MACD line and is also turning downward, signaling ongoing preparations for a downward breakout when conditions become favorable. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating just above the threshold of the downtrend territory. We do not foresee significant movement today or tomorrow.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on January 2: The Euro Declines, but the Range Holds

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a decline on Monday and Tuesday. Although the euro lost approximately 100 pips over the last two trading days of the year, it remains within the sideways range of 1.0340 to 1.0450. In the past two days, the euro has simply fallen from the upper boundary of this range to the lower boundary. It is possible for it to rebound from the lower boundary and rise back to the upper boundary. However, in the medium term, the downtrend remains intact, and it is likely just a matter of time before the 1.0340 level is breached, potentially leading to further declines toward the 1.0000 target. The fact that market participants continued to sell the euro actively even ahead of New Year's speaks volumes. No macroeconomic reports or significant fundamental events were published in either the Eurozone or the US over the last two trading days, so there is little to analyze. On Tuesday, one tradable signal was generated. During the European session, the price hovered around a critical line. However, in the early US session, it rebounded from this level and began moving downward. By the end of the day, the price had reached the 1.0340–1.0366 range, where profits could have been locked in.

The most recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report is dated December 17. As shown in the chart above, the net position of non-commercial traders has been consistently bullish, but bears have finally gained the upper hand. Two months ago, there was a significant increase in the number of short positions opened by professional traders, causing the net position to turn negative for the first time in a long while. This indicates that the euro is now being sold more frequently than it is being bought. Currently, no fundamental factors support the strengthening of the euro, and technical analysis suggests that the currency pair remains in a consolidation zone, which means it's experiencing a flat trend. In terms of the weekly timeframe, it is evident that the pair has been trading between 1.0448 and 1.1274 since December 2022. Consequently, further declines are more likely, and a break below the 1.0448 level could open up new downside opportunities for the euro. Currently, the red and blue lines on the COT chart have crossed each other, indicating a bearish market trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the non-commercial group decreased by 4,700, while short positions dropped by 14,400. As a result, the net position increased by nearly 10,000, but this does not change the overall trend.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 8, 2025

Yesterday, the US dollar increased by 0.39%, while the euro decreased by 0.47%. This movement occurred alongside a 1.10% drop in the US S&P 500 stock index. The significant decline in the euro, as well as in other European currencies, aligns with the projections made in December following the end of the "Trump rally."

For the euro to confirm a new downward trend towards target levels of 1.0250 and 1.0135, it is essential that the price consolidates below the 1.0350 mark. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator turned away from the boundary of the growth zone. The price reversed downward after twice piercing the balance line. The correction is now complete.

On the four-hour chart, the price's decline has halted at the MACD line. The signal level has become the MACD line at 1.0338. A break below this level will initiate a move toward 1.0250. By that time, the Marlin oscillator is also anticipated to enter negative territory, further reinforcing the downward trend.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 9, 2025

Yesterday, the euro consolidated below the 1.0350 level, and during the Pacific session, it continued to decline slowly. The Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe is also gradually moving downward.

There's no rush today, as it is a public holiday in the U.S. However, data on layoffs will still be published, and four representatives from the Federal Reserve are scheduled to speak. The 1.0250 support level is now of secondary significance as the price approaches the target of 1.0135. On the H4 chart, the price has settled below both indicator lines.

There's no rush today, as it is a public holiday in the U.S. However, data on layoffs will still be published, and four representatives from the Federal Reserve are scheduled to speak. The 1.0250 support level is now of secondary significance as the price approaches the target of 1.0135. On the H4 chart, the price has settled below both indicator lines.

The Marlin oscillator is firmly positioned in negative territory. However, given the U.S. holiday, the intermediate level of 1.0250 may hold. Tomorrow, U.S. employment data will be released, with forecasts indicating moderately positive expectations.

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