Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 11, 2024

The price has repeatedly pierced the 1.0724 support level on the daily chart but has failed to consolidate below it. A divergence has formed with the Marlin oscillator in its attempts to reach the target level of 1.0667

The price might rise above the 1.0777 level again, even if the upward momentum does not fully develop. Overall, the trend remains bearish, as price movement is occurring below the indicator lines, and Marlin is still undecided about crossing into positive territory.

On the four-hour chart, the price has successfully consolidated below 1.0724. Now, it remains to be seen whether the price will reclaim this level and attempt to rise toward 1.0777. If the price shows no such intention, the target support at 1.0667 will likely be reached. The next target would be 1.0636, the May 31, 2023 low.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 12, 2024

Despite the public holiday in the United States, the market remained active, and the euro continued to lose ground. The reason lies in the aftermath of the elections. While the outcomes of the presidential and Senate elections are clear, the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives remains uncertain. Yesterday, it was reported that the Republican Party is on the verge of securing a majority in both chambers of Congress. This scenario implies that nothing would prevent the Republicans from passing a new tariff law, primarily affecting the European Union—already in a fragile state. Germany's economy seems to have narrowly avoided slipping into recession, though most economists believe it is inevitable and likely to begin next quarter. The introduction of higher tariffs by the U.S. would only exacerbate the European economy's issues. In other words, political factors have retaken center stage, and investors are closely monitoring developments in the House of Representatives. With the vote count nearing completion, clarity is expected in the coming days. Should the Republican Party secure victory, the euro will weaken further. Conversely, if the Democrats gain the majority, a significant rebound could occur, potentially leading to a correction. For now, macroeconomic data will play a secondary role. Moreover, with tomorrow's U.S. inflation report looming, the macroeconomic calendar remains relatively empty until then.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 13, 2024

Although the counting of votes for the House of Representatives is not yet complete, there is no longer any doubt that the Republican Party has achieved a resounding victory, securing complete control of both the executive branch, through the White House, and the legislative branch, with a majority in both chambers of Congress. Unsurprisingly, the euro continued to lose ground, as one of the first decisions likely to be made could involve raising tariffs, primarily targeting European manufacturers. Moreover, the trend toward further euro weakening could be exacerbated by U.S. inflation data. Judging by forecasts, the pace of consumer price growth is expected to accelerate from 2.4% to 2.6%. If this forecast is confirmed, the Federal Reserve will likely pause in its trajectory of further monetary policy easing.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on November 14, 2024

The British pound broke through the target support level of 1.2708 yesterday and shows no signs of stopping. It appears to have sufficient bearish potential to reach the nearest target, 1.2612, and the next one, 1.2510.

Yesterday's U.S. inflation data revealed an increase in the CPI from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Market participants have raised the likelihood of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its December and March meetings. However, as government bond yields showed little change by the end of the day after brief volatility, the pound continued its downward momentum.

No reversal elements are observed on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator's current rise reflects a discharge of tension, preparing for further decline. The Marlin signal line aims to test the lower boundary of the descending green channel.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


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