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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on September 26, 2022 The British pound fell by an incredible 417 points ...

      
   
  1. #1271
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on September 26, 2022

    The British pound fell by an incredible 417 points (-3.65%) on Friday, reaching strong support from the 1.0830 price level and price channel line of the monthly timeframe. This morning, during the first four hours of the trading session, the price fell by another 490 points in the moment, winning back half of the fall in the next half hour.



    Now the price is between the target levels of 1.0310 and 1.0535. The Marlin Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the ultra-high volatility of the pound indicates its potential correction in the near future. The optimal strategy in this situation would be to wait for the correction to be completed and then open new short positions. The nearest target at 1.0310, formed by the embedded line of the price channel, remains unworked out. Leaving the area under it opens the 1.0140 target.



    On a four-hour scale, the Marlin Oscillator is already headed for a correction - the price is consolidating under the level of 1.0535. We are waiting for the correction to be completed, the market to be calm, and the price to move down further.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  2. #1272
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on September 27, 2022

    Yesterday, the pound fell on Friday's example, but this time, after a decline of 487 points, there was a strong rebound of 570 points. The day was still closed with a black candle.



    The lower shadow still did not reach the target level of 1.0310. Now there is a consolidation under the level of 1.0830. Upon completion of the consolidation, we are waiting for a new wave of decline to 1.0310. Intermediate level of 1.0535.



    On the four-hour chart, the price reverses before the resistance level of 1.0830, and the Marlin Oscillator also reverses. If the price does not change its mind and decreases from the current levels (without re-working out 1.0830), then we are waiting for it at the first target of 1.0535.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  3. #1273
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Signal for Gold (XAU/USD) On September 28-29, 2022: buy above $1,625 or in case of rebound at $1,600 (0/8 Murray - oversold)



    Since the beginning of August, gold (XAU/USD) has been trading inside a downtrend channel. It is likely to find support around 0/8 Murray (1,625).

    Gold reached the low of April 05, 2020, at 1,621.01. It is currently trading near these levels and is showing levels of consolidation.

    Some members of the FED are supporting further increases in interest rates, even at the risk of slowing economic growth. On Friday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that he believed that the US central bank could reduce inflation without causing a deep recession and high unemployment.

    Yesterday, in the American session, gold made a brief recovery and reached 1,642.33. As it failed to consolidate gains, it changed course and now is facing a decision to break the critical support of 1,625.

    In the event of a drop below 1,624, it will head towards the next level of 1,610 and could even drop towards the psychological level of 1,600.

    Conversely, a sharp break above the 21 SMA could accelerate the upside momentum and the price could reach the top of the downtrend channel around 1,656-1,662.

    According to the 4-hour chart, the outlook remains negative for gold. In case of extending the bounce, the resistances could be located at 1,641, followed by 1,656. A drop below 1,625 in the short term would expose the area of recent lows and the next support at 1,600.

    Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy XAU/USD only if it trades above 0/8 Murray (1,625) or if there is a technical bounce off the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1,600. With targets at 1,625,1,645 and 1,656.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  4. #1274
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 29, 2022

    Yesterday there was a sharp and strong correction in the yields of US government bonds. Yields on 5-year bonds fell from 4.19% to 3.97%, returning to levels of the 23rd. Following the yields, the stock market also corrected the S&P 500 grew by 1.97%. Oil and gold rose. The euro added 143 points. The price reached the target level of 0.9752, reversed from it and is now breaking through the support at 0.9695.



    We believe that the correction has ended due to the large price growth and strong resistance. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned down. We are waiting for the price to overcome the supports 0.9625, 0.9520 and reach the level 0.9404. We expect a longer correction from this level. It is close to the February 2000 low (0.9399), which, taking into account the error in the 22-year history, can be taken as coinciding levels. On the four-hour chart, the price is trying to consolidate below the level of 0.9695. The Marlin Oscillator is trying to move back into negative territory. We also note that yesterday's growth occurred under the balance indicator line (red), which indicates a purely corrective nature of this movement.



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  5. #1275
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Signal for GBP/USD on September 30, 2022: sell below 1.1230 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)



    The British pound is trading around 1.1144. We can see three consecutive days of recovery and now it is facing the zone of 7/8 Murray (1.1230) which represents a likely technical reversal.

    A pullback towards the 1.1310 area (200 EMA) or towards the 1.1230 level (7/8) could be considered as a signal to resume selling.

    According to the daily chart, we can see that the British pound has three days of strong recovery and could now face overbought levels.

    This recovery could be momentary, as the main trend is still bearish and its rise higher will be seen by the bears as a good opportunity to sell.

    The intervention of the Bank of England caused strong volatility in the GBP/USD pair, which led to a recovery of almost 900 points. The BoE announced that it will make temporary purchases of UK bonds. This intervention will only relieve downward pressure momentarily, as the Fed is determined to raise its interest rate in the coming months.

    Therefore, we can sell the pound below the area of 7/8 Murray or the 200 EMA with targets at 6/8 around 1.0742.

    Additionally, the psychological level of 1.10 will be the key level for the British pound. We expect the British pound to trade around this area in the coming days and it could be seen as a pivot point in the event of a bullish or bearish move.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  6. #1276
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 3, 2022

    Last Friday, the euro traded within the range of target levels 0.9752-0.9850, closing the day down 12 points. The daily Marlin Oscillator turned sideways to the neutral state, even though it is in the negative territory.

    A debt crisis is brewing in Europe, which began with a rise in yields on British medium-term government bonds, in particular, on 3-year securities over the last ten days of September, it jumped from 3.05% to 4.74%. For German 3-year bonds, during this time, the yield increased from 1.54% to 1.80%. Given the European Central Bank's intention to raise rates sharply at the October meeting, anxiety will only intensify. But maybe not today or tomorrow.



    The eurozone is expected to have a neutral PMI in the manufacturing sector for September - that is, it will remain at its previous value of 48.5 points, while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast to weaken from 52.8 to 52.2. As a result, we expect some more delay for the euro in the range of 0.9695-0.9850. Perhaps, having the price settle under 0.9695, that is, under the close on September 23, when the euro collapsed by 150 points, the trend will strengthen in a new downward momentum.



    MACD indicator lines, which also indicates the possibility of the price staying in the side short-term trend. The Marlin Oscillator has turned down, but not enough yet, given the overall technical picture, for the effectiveness of such a signal.

    The probability of continuation of the correction to the level of 0.9950, which has already reached and significantly strengthened the MACD line of the daily scale, is 35%. We will allocate 50% for sideways movement and 15% for downward reversal. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  7. #1277
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for October 4, 2022



    EUR/USD still needs to break clearly above minor resistance at 0.9851 to add confidence in our preferred scenario that a long-term corrective bottom is in place at 0.9536. A break above minor resistance at 0,9851 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.0051 will confirm the low being in place and that a new impulsive rally in wave 3 or C is unfolding. Ultimately, this impulsive rally will break above the peak of wave 1 or A at 1.6038. However, for now, let's take the rally from 0.9536 in baby steps and look for a break above minor resistance at 0.9851 as the first good indication that the corrective decline from 1.6038 has been completed.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  8. #1278
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 5, 2022

    The euro rose 160 points yesterday on the back of continued risk appetite in the stock markets. The US S&P 500 added 3.06%. Yields on government bonds also fell - on 5-year bonds from 4.06% to 3.88%. The level of accumulation of stop losses in the area of 1.9870 was overcome and the euro was able to overcome the technical resistance - the level of 0.9950 we defined and the MACD line of the daily scale.



    The price stuck in the range of monthly consolidation on August 22-September 20 at 0.9950-1.0050. Yesterday's surge in the stock markets is unlikely to repeat today, and on Friday there will be data on labor in the US for September. The forecast for new jobs in the non-farm sector is 250,000, which is very good and could add to the worries about the rate. At the upper border of the specified range (1.0050), the price will most likely reverse downwards, with the price returning below 0.9855. The price may not reach 1.0050. The main sign of a reversal will be consolidation under 0.9950.



    Divergence is already visible on the four-hour timescale. It can be smoothed out in the next 24 hours, but this is a visual indication of further difficulties for the bulls in the monthly price consolidation zone. Albeit with difficulty, but the price can still consolidate under the level of 0.9950. We are waiting for the development of events.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  9. #1279
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 6, 2022

    The euro fell by 100 points yesterday, returning below the target level of 0.9950 and under the MACD indicator line of the daily scale. The lower shadow of the daily candle worked out the support of 0.9855. We also note that the price reversal occurred from the balance indicator line (moving red), which separates the interests of strategic bulls and bears.



    From the standpoint of this indicator, it can be seen that the entire growth of 4.5 figures of the last week had a corrective nature of the medium and long-term trends. Now, after the price goes under the nearest support of 0.9855, the next target level at 0.9724 will become available. The Marlin Oscillator is still in the positive area, the market is gathering strength to overcome the support of 0.9855.

    On the H4 chart, the price divergence with the Marlin Oscillator turned out to be effective. The signal line of the oscillator touched the zero line and lingered for some time in front of it. Leaving the price under 0.9855 will give new strength to the euro to move down.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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  10. #1280
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on October 7, 2022

    Yesterday the euro successfully overcame the support of 0.9855 and rushed towards the support of 0.9724. The euro is declining even faster than its growth in recent days. Consolidation under 0.9724 opens the 0.9520 target. Marlin Oscillator fixed in negative territory.



    Employment data for September will be released today. The forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector is 250,000, which is a very good indicator with an unemployment rate of 3.7%. The markets are seriously tuned in to such data, as yesterday all dollar assets fell in price, including commodities and stocks.



    The price is preparing to attack the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The MACD line itself is approaching the target level of 0.9724, so the price level is of key importance. The Marlin Oscillator is developing in the downward trend area.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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