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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 26, 2024

Despite some fluctuations, the market is essentially at a standstill. This pattern may persist until the FOMC meeting minutes are published this evening. A significant reaction is only likely if the minutes contain something new. However, this is highly improbable, as representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve have repeatedly stated that the Federal Reserve System will pause further monetary policy easing. As such, the stagnation is expected to continue.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 27, 2024

Yesterday, the euro closed above 1.0483, with the opening and closing candles positioned higher. The Marlin oscillator supported the price's upward movement with its growth. This opens the way for the price to target the 1.0590-1.0636 range. If this range is surpassed, further growth into the 1.0724/77 range becomes possible.

The prolonged decline in gold and oil raises concerns, as these trends could pull the euro lower without allowing for a significant correction. The U.S. stock market is also nearing a technical turning point. If these risks materialize—resulting in a drop in market valuations—the euro could fall below 1.0350 without even testing the nearest resistance range.

On the H4 chart, the price is tangled between indicator lines and the 1.0449/83 range. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has formed a small triangle that could break in either direction. The euro is awaiting new data to determine its next move.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on November 28, 2024

The pound sustained its correction potential and yesterday approached the target level of 1.2708. The Marlin oscillator broke out of the descending channel upward but remains in negative territory for now.

A move above the nearest target level will also signal a shift into positive territory for the Marlin oscillator. A simultaneous breakout of the price and the oscillator would boost the pound's momentum for further growth. The next targets are 1.2773; the subsequent one is 1.2859. On the four-hour chart, the price has risen above both indicator lines.

The price may consolidate to solidify its breakout above the nearest resistance, potentially reaching the target level of 1.2773. The Marlin oscillator is slightly declining this morning, which could set the stage for renewed growth from a lower base. If the price falls below the MACD moving average at 1.2568, the trend will shift back to a medium-term decline.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 2, 2024

On Friday, the euro reached its target resistance at 1.0590. However, during the Asian session, it erased Friday's gains and dropped to Thursday's low. The Marlin oscillator's signal line turned downward from the neutral zero line. This indicates that the correction from 1.0350 is likely complete, and the price is now heading towards the target range of 1.0449/83. A breakout below this range would open the path to the next target at 1.0350.

Additionally, today's data on business activity in the Eurozone and the US supports dollar strengthening. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for November is expected to weaken from 46.0 to 45.2, while the US Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to rise from 48.5 to 48.8. The ISM Manufacturing Index is also expected to improve from 46.5 to 47.7.

On the H4 chart, the price and oscillator have formed a divergence. Marlin is already in bearish territory, signaling downward momentum. The 1.0449/83 range coincides with the MACD line, making this zone strategically significant. A break below it would pave the way for new targets below 1.0350, with 1.0250 as the next key level.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on December 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair also traded downward from the market opening. There were no clear reasons for the British currency to fall overnight, leading us to believe that the market has shown the direction it intends to take this week. Later, the U.S. released the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which showed stronger growth than expected. The accompanying S&P Business Activity Index also surpassed market expectations. As a result, during the U.S. trading session, the dollar had solid grounds for growth. Considering the overall technical and fundamental picture, it becomes evident that the pound sterling is likely to continue its decline in nearly any scenario. The only question is how long the corrective phase will last. As is well known, corrections can be quite prolonged, but this does not imply a significant rise in the pair.

Three good trading signals were formed on the 5-minute TF on Monday. First, the price bounced from the area of 1.2680-1.2685, then overcame this area, and finally bounced (with a small error) from the level of 1.2613. The first signal can be false, but the price moved 20 pips in the desired direction, allowing the trade to close at breakeven with a Stop Loss. The second and third signals yielded profits for novice traders. Trading Strategy for Tuesday: The GBP/USD pair continues to show a downward bias on the hourly timeframe. We fully support the pound's decline in the medium term as we believe this is the only logical outcome. The pound sterling remains in a corrective phase, which could take some time. However, it's important to remember that the current rise in the British currency is driven purely by technical factors. On Tuesday, novice traders can anticipate a new decline in the British pound, given that the 1.2680–1.2685 area has already been broken. On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at 1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502-1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2633, 1.2680-1.2685, 1.2754, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993. The only significant event on Tuesday is the JOLTs report on job openings in the U.S. However, this report is only moderately important, as it is published with a two-month lag.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 4, 2024

Yesterday's corrective growth was minimal, with the white candlestick amounting to 12 pips. The overall downward trend, driven by the reversal of both the price and the oscillator from their resistance levels, looks more solid. The current task for the bears is to consolidate within the 1.0449/83 range, which would pave the way for a move toward the 1.0350 target.

Economic data from Europe and the U.S. will influence this scenario. The Eurozone Services PMI for November is expected to decline from 51.6 to 49.2, while the U.S. PMI is forecasted to rise from 55.0 to 57.0. However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index may edge down slightly from 56.0 to 55.5, but this is offset by an anticipated 0.3% growth in industrial orders.

Yesterday, the price returned below the balance line on the four-hour chart, coinciding with the Marlin oscillator's signal line turning downward from the zero line. The intent to move into the 1.0449/83 range is clear, but the MACD line within this range could hinder further bearish progress.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 5, 2024

Bank of Japan representatives are increasingly expressing concerns about a rate hike ahead of their December 19 meeting (Nakamura), traditionally citing a "broader range of data."

Given the Bank of Japan's caution about sudden market changes and its intention to provide prior notice to investors regarding its actions, the rate may remain unchanged at this meeting. If the price consolidates above the 150.83 level, further growth to 153.60 becomes likely, with the pair potentially reaching this level before the Federal Reserve meeting on December 18.

On the 4-hour chart, growth has only begun following a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator when the price approached the target range of 148.18/50. The initial impulse has been achieved, but the price needs to consolidate above the MACD line at the 151.24 mark, corresponding to yesterday's high.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 6, 2024

On Thursday, the euro gained 77 pips, driven by U.S. data from Challenger showing a rise in job cuts from 55,597 in October to 57,727 in November. Adding to the pessimism, initial jobless claims released an hour later rose to 224k from 215k the previous week. What does this fundamental-technical pattern suggest? Major players may be preparing to buy the euro, even in response to neutral U.S. labor data released today. Today's forecasts offer room for interpretation. November nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to show an increase of 202k, but unemployment is also projected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. Even minor deviations could be framed as "weak."

The technical outlook suggests the price aims to break above the 1.0598 resistance level, supported by the leading Marlin oscillator, which holds firmly in bullish territory. The first target for growth is the resistance at 1.0667, where the price will face the balance line. Success here could allow the euro to continue its ascent into the 1.0762/77 target range, a support zone from October 23–29. (Target levels have been slightly adjusted since the last review).

A bearish scenario would materialize only if the price falls below 1.0461, negating the bullish plan. The price consolidates between the balance line and the 1.0598 target level. The Marlin oscillator is extending its growth in positive territory. The next move will largely depend on today's U.S. labor market data.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 10, 2024

The main event influencing the currency market on Monday was the decline in the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.61% after hitting a historic high on Friday. The reversal occurred at strong technical resistance, supported by other signs of a trend shift. It is possible that the "Trump Rally" has ended, with investors moving away from risk. This is further evidenced by an 11.12% increase in the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX). If the stock market decline continues, it may substantially impact the euro more than the nearly priced-in European Central Bank rate cut. Even if the ECB decides not to lower rates, the euro may lack the strength for significant growth. For more details, see the article "The U.S. Stock Market Ends the "Trump Rally."'

Currently, the euro is retreating from the upper boundary of the expected range, 1.0461–1.0598. The euro's weakness is already evident, as the price refrained from attempting to breach 1.0598 yesterday. The Marlin oscillator aligns near the neutral line, positioning itself to react to any ECB scenario when the decision is announced. The bears are gradually gaining the upper hand.

The four-hour chart shows that the price is pressing below the balance line for support. The Marlin oscillator has shifted into bearish territory. The MACD line supports the price at 1.0514, a neutral point within the overall range of 1.0461–1.0598. A drop below this level would enable the price to approach the ECB announcement near the support at 1.0461 preemptively and more aggressively.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on December 12, 2024

After yesterday's moderate decline (an attempt to test the 1.2708 support), the pound sterling is again pressing against the resistance levels of the balance indicator line and the MA34. The Marlin oscillator is moving sideways but trending upward. The price signals its intent to target the 1.2906 level, where it may encounter the MACD line on the daily chart.

If the euro fails to exhibit strong movement following today's European Central Bank meeting, the pound will likely break above current resistance levels and enter the 1.2816/47 range. However, if this plan does not materialize, a move below 1.2708 could lead the pair to test the 1.2616 level, marking the December 2 low.

On the 4-hour chart, yesterday's brief move of the Marlin oscillator into negative territory appears to have been a false signal, as it has since returned to the growth zone this morning. The balance line firmly supports the price, while the stronger MACD line (blue) lies just below. The trend remains upward, with the key question being whether the price can break through the daily resistance levels. A break below 1.2708 on the H4 chart would indicate that the pound has chosen a downward trajectory.

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