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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 26, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro fully recovered on Friday after falling on Thursday, now the price intends to reach the target level of 1.1917 - the highs of September 10 and August 6. Perhaps growth will be slightly higher in order to reach the MACD line. The highest peak is seen at the upper border of the price channel at 1.1960. The Marlin oscillator is growing, the bullish trend of the corrective plan continues.



The price rises after a false departure under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, which is its own sign of continuing the movement after a false price maneuver. The same maneuver was made by the Marlin oscillator, now the price is in a growing position for all indicators on this timeframe. We are waiting for the price to rise to the designated target of 1.1917.



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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 28, 2020

EUR/USD
The dollar has been strengthening since the beginning of the week. Investors are starting to invest in Biden's victory in the US presidential election, as well as in obtaining a democratic majority in both houses of Congress. To strengthen the euro's downward movement, the price needs to settle below the target level of 1.1754. When this task is completed, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will move into the negative zone, which will strengthen the trend. The first target after that will be the 1.1650 level. To consolidate the trend, the price also needs to gain a foothold below the red balance indicator line.



The four-hour chart shows that the situation is completely decreasing, the price has settled below the balance and MACD lines, while Marlin is declining in the negative zone. We look forward to a decline in prices and reinforcement of the fall on the daily chart.



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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 29, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro has fueled the expected fall. The single currency lost 40 points yesterday, the reason for this was the introduction of a strict quarantine in France and a fall in oil by 4%. The price has overcome the target level of 1.1754 and is currently gathering forces under it to fall further to the next target of 1.1650. This movement is delayed by the red balance indicator line on the daily chart. The oscillatory line touched the border of the decline area yesterday, now the price has to build up strength to break through the technical supports.



There are no signs of a possible deep correction on the four-hour chart, the accumulation of forces is likely to have a consolidation character. We are waiting for the price to move to 1.1650 once it is completed.



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EUR/USD Forecast for October 30, 2020

EUR/USD
On Thursday, the Euro fell by 72 points, having worked out the first target of 1.1650 as the minimum of the day. This goal was worked out qualitatively. This was worked out on good market volumes, with technical confirmation of the Marlin oscillator by moving to the zone of negative values. This is a zone of a downward trend to fix the price under the balance indicator line on the daily scale chart. The reason for this movement was the ECB meeting, at which it was decided to change the current monetary policy towards easing in December. The next step of the price is waiting for its transition to the level of 1.1650 and working out the subsequent goal of 1.1550, this is the minimum of November 2017.



On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the oscillator turns up, the Marlin is slightly discharged, not wanting to go deeper into the oversold zone. We are then waiting for a new wave of decline to the designated goal. It is possible that the price will go below 1.1650 only on Monday.



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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 2, 2020

EUR/USD
Last Friday the euro settled below the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe. The MACD indicator line turned down, while the Marlin oscillator settled in the downward trend zone. The situation is completely downward in the medium term. The closest target is the 1.1590 level, then 1.1495.



A weak convergence formed according to Marlin on the four-hour chart, this gives a precondition for the price to settle before the presidential elections in the United States. The price will likely settle in a narrow range below the 1.1650 level.



As for the price's behavior after Biden's victory, the dollar will most likely strengthen, since we see no reason for the opposite due to the victory of the Democrats. In the current economic cycle and with geopolitical events, a strong dollar is beneficial to the United States, regardless of the party that came to power. Moreover, the euro's growth back in July-August was speculative, since no financial institution in the United States, be it a bank or an investment company, gave an intelligible answer to this growth. The Commitment of Traders (COT) data shows the largest volume of accumulated long positions in the euro over the past nine months, it's time to send the bulls to the slaughterhouses. We expect the euro to start falling from 1.1165-1.1200 within 2-3 weeks.

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AUD / USD Forecast for November 3, 2020

AUD / USD
In the last two days, the Australian Dollar the range of fluctuations increased against the background of mixed dynamics in the commodity markets and the upcoming elections in the US but in general the price does not move above the level of 0.7058. It is probably choosing it as a platform for working out the nested line of the price channel in the area of 0.6937. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative trend zone.



On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line has returned to the border with the growth territory. From here, a downward turn is possible and the price may fall further. The first goal is 0.6970 and overcoming it will create a condition for a breakthrough to 0.6937. Fixing the price below this level opens up the prospect of further decline.



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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 4, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro gained 75 points on Tuesday due to below average trading volumes. Undoubtedly, this was a speculative growth in anticipation of the start of the national vote in the United States. The price has reached the target level of 1.1754 today. Getting the price to settle above 1.1754 may lead to rising towards 1.1880, but we consider this scenario as an alternative, since Biden is ahead of Trump at the moment with a score of 89 voters against 72. To win, you need to get 270 conditional voters, that is, a certain number of them depending on the victory in a specific state. We believe that Joe Biden's victory will lead to a stronger dollar. Also, the Senate is leaving the Republicans' control - 35% versus 49% of the Democrats.



The daily chart shows that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reverses from the border of the growth area. We are waiting for the price to go under 1.1590, then it will continue to fall to 1.1495.



The four-hour chart shows that the price did not break any of the indicator lines above, it only punctured the MACD line. For high volatility, this is a typical case for large players to control the situation. Getting the price to settle below 1.1590 will be an important sign of the euro's succeeding decline.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 5, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday the market spent a day in disputes and expectations on the US election results. Joe Biden, having seized the leadership from the very beginning, holding it until this morning, he now has 253 votes against Trump's 214, 71.471 million votes were cast for Biden against Trump's 67.968 million. To win for the presidency, a candidate needs to recruit 270 voters. The alignment in the Senate has slightly changed - the Democrats lost the leadership, they now have 47 seats against 48 for the Republicans (50 are needed to control the upper house), the House of Representatives remains with the Democrats: 197 seats against 186. Votes can be counted for a few more days, since many voters voted by mail.

Investors were worried - the trading volume for the euro was the highest in the last five months, the trading range was 168 points. The media wrote that Biden's victory will be followed by a weakening of the dollar, but we repeat: the Democratic establishment traditionally followed the policy of a strong dollar after some periods of exclusion, especially when it was necessary to pull the economy out of the crisis. In the current situation, the demand for dollars will be supported by the demand for US public debt (in connection with the new aid package) and the change of Trump's state paradigm "divide and conquer" to the "unite and conquer" paradigm, which will be expressed in the unfreezing of projects of transoceanic partnerships and an early agreement with Britain on its exit from the EU. In the long term, we expect the euro to be below parity.



The daily chart shows that the euro returned to the area of the balance indicator line, while the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves horizontally right along the border of the downward area. Perhaps the euro will reach the lower target level of 1.1620 by today or tomorrow.

The price needs to overcome yesterday's high (1.1770) in order to move up, and it also needs to take the nearest target at 1.1830, which is the peak on October 9.



The price cannot go above the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator turns to the downside without waiting for it. There are no clear signals for a reversal yet, but there are no signals for succeeding growth either. So we should wait until the market reacts to the results of the presidential elections.

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AUD/USD Forecast for November 6, 2020

AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar showed a rare side of high dynamics as its growth was just over a hundred points ahead of the Euro. The growth stopped at the daily Kruzenshtern line and this morning the price started to reverse. Leaving the price with a consolidation under 0.7222 will mean a reversal of this dynamics in the opposite direction, the first goal will be 0.7120, then 0.7058. Growth is possible with a 35% probability. To do this, the price needs to overcome yesterday's high and the target will be the upper limit of the price channel at 0.7335.



Based on the four-hour scale chart, the reversal is not yet pronounced, the indicators only show its possible beginning, albeit with a high probability. To confirm it, you need to wait for the price to fall below the nearest level of 0.7222.



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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 9, 2020

EUR/USD
US data on employment came out good: 638,000 new jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector against the forecast of 600,000, the share of the economically active population increased from 61.4% to 61.7%, the unemployment rate fell from 7.9 % to 6.9%, dropping to the level of September 2014. Unemployment fell by 53% in six months, which, of course, is a good pace. But the dollar dropped 0.27% on Friday, while the euro rose by 50 points. The business media have portrayed this growth, as well as all of the euro's growth since election day, with an increase in risk appetite and anticipation of a massive stimulus package. But we don't think so. This is far from the same interest in risk that was seen in 2013 or 2017, for example, with big businesses setting the euro exchange rate at 1.32 and 1.15 in each period. We do not know what track the business is interested in, but it is unlikely to be 1.18. We even doubt that corporations need a second aid package. To understand the current situation, you need to dig deeper.

Each so-called aid package is spent by corporations in two main areas: for speculation in stock markets and for takeover of large companies in other countries. US President Donald Trump, according to the Democrats, made the main mistake in his policy - by freezing projects of transoceanic partnerships, he went deep, in particular, in sanctions against individual countries. With the arrival of Biden, one can expect a resumption of American-style globalization (Pacific partnerships), a US-UK trade deal regardless of the outcome of Brexit, and continued expansion of British-American companies to third countries. All these tasks require a strong dollar, not an ephemeral interest in risk, which is used as a cover for banal speculation for the time being.



The euro has currently overcome the target level of 1.1880, it is possible to reach the MACD line at 1.1915 (daily). Overcoming the MACD line will allow the price to reach the resistance of the upper line of the price channel at around 1.1950. Getting the price to settle below 1.1880 could bring prices back below 1.1830. The bears could aim for 1.1770. No clear direction for today, volatility could also be low.



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