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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 28, 2020 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has hit the level of 1.2697 ...

      
   
  1. #761
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 28, 2020



    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD pair has hit the level of 1.2697 (low was made at 1.2674) and after a short period of consolidation the market is starting to bounce. This corrective bounce higher should be capped very soon, because there is a wide supply zone located between the level of 1.2747 - 1.2869 and only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.2869 would indicate the whole corrective cycle termination. Moreover, the market is bouncing from the oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart and the momentum is slowly accelerating as well. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.3187
    WR2 - 1.3072
    WR1 - 1.2894
    Weekly Pivot - 1.2783
    WS1 - 1.2601
    WS2 - 1.2494
    WS3 - 1.2312

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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  2. #762
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on September 29, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro slightly increased on Monday amid rising risk appetite in the stock market and ahead of the first debate of presidential candidates Trump and Biden on Wednesday. Technically, the growth was reflected in consolidation at the target level of 1.1650. The observed consolidation is likely to continue today. The price must settle below the 1.1650 level in order for a significant downward movement to appear. The first target is 1.1550 (November 2017 low).



    The price shows an intention to fall from the September 24 and 25 highs. It would be like forming a narrow consolidation, which in turn will act as a technical figure for the trend to continue, that is, a decline. The euro's consolidation growth may continue up to the MACD indicator line at 1.1712. We are waiting for the development of events, the main scenario is decreasing.

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  3. #763
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    Forecast for AUD/USD on September 30, 2020

    AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar has created a dual growth situation this morning, which suggests a reversal towards the 0.7190 level without achieving this target. This circumstance is due to the delta in the upper lines of the trading channel of the Marlin oscillator of the daily chart. The signal line of the oscillator can make a reversal from any of them, either from the blue line or from the green line. This shows us how false the growing movement can be if it begins to develop. The price staying above 0.7190 with Marlin entering the zone of positive values will be a sign of price growth. The first target will be the 0.7270 level .



    The price has settled above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, but the Marlin oscillator is marking a reversal, at the moment its signal line is moving horizontally. In a short amount of time, the price may return to the area under this line and settle below it. In this case, and this is the main scenario, the aussie will aim for 0.7065. Consolidating below it opens the second target at 0.6970.



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  4. #764
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    Forecast for USD/JPY on October 1, 2020

    USD/JPY
    USD/JPY fell by 18 points while investors were temporarily confused on Wednesday, stopping at the 110.0% Fibonacci level on the daily chart. The pair is planning to go up from this level during the Asian session. The Marlin oscillator is staying in the growth zone. We are waiting for the next branch of growth at the target of 106.00 - at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% and the MACD line coinciding with it.



    The price is held by the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, the general trend is growing. The Marlin oscillator has been declining for a long time while the price increases, you can look at this as the indicator easing from the overbought zone before it grows further. We are waiting for the price to reach the designated target.



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  5. #765
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on October 2, 2020

    EUR/USD The euro rose by 26 points yesterday, a stronger movement was prevented from developing the signal level of 1.1754, created by the lows of August 21 and September 9. The Marlin oscillator is showing the first signs of a reversal. Perhaps with the release of US employment data, this reversal will intensify. The US unemployment rate for September is expected to fall from 8.4% to 8.2%. The first target for the euro is 1.1650, then 1.1550.



    The price formed a divergence with the oscillator on the four-hour chart. In order to confidently decline, The price needs to settle below the MACD line below 1.1688. We are waiting for the development of events.



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  6. #766
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    Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 5, 2020



    Crypto Industry News:
    Estonian central bank - Eesti Pank - has announced the launch of a research program to test how to build a digital currency infrastructure.

    According to the statement, Eesti Pank will collaborate on the research project with technology companies SW7 Group and Guardtime. The initiative aims to test whether a blockchain-based keyless signature (KSI) solution can help create virtual currency.

    It is worth adding that Estonia is already using blockchain and KSI technology in its e-government services. The bank's project will also address new payment solutions "that may be possible through the use of electronic identifiers and other Estonian e-government solutions."

    The project will consist of several phases and will last approximately two years. The first phase will be to create a scalable, practical and secure platform that meets the requirements of CBDC. At the same time, it was emphasized that the platform is to operate quickly, securely and ensure privacy.

    Rainer Olt, head of the bank's Payment Systems Department, said:

    "As a small central bank, Eesti Pank carefully selects the development projects of the Eurozone central banks to which we can make a significant contribution. Over the years, Estonia has developed unique know-how in maintaining a secure, private and efficient eGovernment. Estonia's unique wealth of experience is a good impetus to launch the project with technology companies SW7 and Guardtime to explore [new] technological opportunities. "

    The bank emphasized that it is constantly striving to develop its financial environment and payment system in order to keep up with the times and respond to the needs of citizens.

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The BTC/USD pair has been slowly moving up towards the level of $10,679, which is the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. There is a change for the market to continue to move higher if the level of $10, 697 is clearly violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $10,890, which is the last swing high. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $10,586 and $10,547.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $11,471
    WR2 - $11,178
    WR1 - $10,858
    Weekly Pivot - $10,602
    WS1 - $10,300
    WS2 - $10,024
    WS3 - $9,715

    Trading Recommendations:
    The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.


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  7. #767
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    The Central European Bank supports the growth of the Euro

    After forming a small accumulation zone, the Euro continued to grow rapidly against the US Dollar and other currencies. This makes it possible to hold a long position. Any downward movement of the pair will allow you to re-enter purchases at more favorable prices. The nearest target for the current growth phase is 1.1830. The probability of reaching this mark is at 75%. When the goal is reached, you must fully or partially exit the position. This will allow you to record purchases at a favorable price.



    Areas of the Central Bank where liquidity increase is likely to be used to fix transactions. The probability of continuing growth after the next test of the zone without correction is below 30%, so we should expect the formation of a downward model in the second half of this week. This movement will be corrective, so sales can only be considered as a short-term investment with a quick fix within the average daily course.

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  8. #768
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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 7, 2020



    Crypto Industry News:
    According to a recent SEC disclosure by the Greyscale Ethereum Trust, or ETHE, Ethereum's impending shift to proof-of-stake consensus is a risk that could have a "material adverse effect" on its stock.

    ETHE has recently applied to the regulator to become a SEC reporting company. Such companies are required to discuss risk factors that may adversely affect their results in all quarterly and annual reports.

    In one section, which aims to outline the potential threats to the fund's future, it was noted that upgrading to ETH 2.0 may cause some difficulties for investors:

    "The digital asset network's consensus mechanism is an essential aspect of its source code, and any failure to properly implement such a change could have a significant negative impact on the ETH value."

    The report mentions that the inability to properly implement these changes may result in a temporary or permanent bifurcation which could have a negative impact on ETHE's stock.

    It seems that the upcoming modernization so far does not diminish investors' interest in the fund. On the contrary, the assets of the Trust it manages have grown exponentially over the past year, from $ 67 million to over $ 800 million at the time of publication.

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The ETH/USD pair had failed to break through the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down and suddenly reversed all the previous gains. The local trend line support had been violated as well and the pair made a new local low seen at the level of $332.46. There was some Pin Bar candlestick made at the end of the move down, so a small bounce is possible up to the level of $345.20. If this local technical resistance is not clearly broken, then the down move should resume and head towards the next target seen at the level of $322.87 - $321.95.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $403.75
    WR2 - $387.38
    WR1 - $368.10
    Weekly Pivot - $351.05
    WS1 - $333.15
    WS2 - $315.51
    WS3 - $296.13

    Trading Recommendations:
    The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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  9. #769
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    Forecast for USD/JPY on October 8, 2020

    USD/JPY
    The Japanese yen was able to overcome the resistance of two indicator lines at once - balance and MACD, and today it continues to rise above them. The Marlin oscillator continues to grow in the zone of positive values, the nearest target at 106.34 is open, we are waiting for the moment we overcome this resistance - the embedded price channel line, and for the price to rise to the 106.96 level - to the high of August 28.



    The price continues to steadily grow above the indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is rising in the zone where bulls are in control. We are waiting for the USD/JPY pair to grow further. Today's report on the balance of payments for the month of August, which showed growth from 0.96 trillion yen to 1.65 trillion yen, provides optimism for Japanese investors.



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  10. #770
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    Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 9, 2020




    Technical Market Outlook:
    Despite the recent bounce from the upper channel line seen at the level of 1.2848, the GBP/USD pair keeps trading below the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017. The bounce indicated some bullish pressure at this level and the upper channel line is being guarded strongly, but after some time we can see the momentum decreased and the Pound is trading horizontally. However, if the price will enter the old main channel zone, then the sell-off might accelerate, so the key technical support is again seen at the level of 1.2848. The next target for bulls after the bounce is seen at the level of 1.2979.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.3265
    WR2 - 1.3116
    WR1 - 1.3034
    Weekly Pivot - 1.2892
    WS1 - 1.2811
    WS2 - 1.2658
    WS3 - 1.2571

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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