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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forecast for GBP/USD on September 14, 2020 GBP/USD The pound sterling was not able to develop a corrective growth last ...

      
   
  1. #751
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forecast for GBP/USD on September 14, 2020

    GBP/USD
    The pound sterling was not able to develop a corrective growth last Friday, so it ended the day by falling, but the correction receives a new impetus today in the Asian session, the price went above the 1.2812 level, heading towards the 1.2912 correction target at the 76.4% Fibonacci level. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is moving up, which is a signal for a correction.



    The price continues to converge with Marlin on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for the correction to end at the target level of 1.2912, and then a reversal into a new downward trend with targets at 1.2725, 1.2645.



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  2. #752
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on September 15, 2020

    The euro, having felt little resistance, grew by 18 points on Monday, following the momentum of the previous days. Meanwhile, British MPs in the second reading passed a law on the internal market last night, contrary to international law (which is what Prime Minister Boris Johnson meant when he spoke of the superiority of British laws). The law is sent to the authorities, and this cannot but put pressure on both the pound and the euro.



    The price is above the red balance indicator line on the daily chart, above the MACD line (blue), but the Marlin oscillator signal line touches its own trend line near the border of the growth area. The price could reverse from the current levels. If the price moves under the MACD line, below the 1.1800 level, it will cause the euro to fall towards the first target of 1.1650.

    But this has not happened yet, therefore, this plan may not be realized and the price will continue to rise to the upper border of the price channel in the 1.1995 area.



    The price settled above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is in the growing trend zone. Breaking through the September 10 high (1.1917) is a signal that the price could rise to 1.1995. But the price did not break far from the MACD line, and the line itself moves horizontally, that is, the prospects for a short-term trend is not very noticeable. The option that the price would move down has a 45% probability. We are waiting for the development of events. Probably, the final choice will take place at the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow.

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  3. #753
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    Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 16, 2020



    Technical Market Outlook:
    Another Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on H4 time frame has made the market to reverse at the level of 1.1899 and hit the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement located at 1.1822 again. The bulls were unable to break through the retracement located at the level of 1.1912 and the rally was reversed. The bulls are still trying to resume the rally, but the level of 1.1912 has not been violated yet. Any intraday breakout below the level of 1.1813 will accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 1.1753 again, so it is worth to keep an eye on the next developments. The weekly trend remains up,

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.2085
    WR2 - 1.1993
    WR1 - 1.1923
    Weekly Pivot - 1.1829
    WS1 - 1.1753
    WS2 - 1.1670
    WS3 - 1.1589

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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  4. #754
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 17, 2020



    Technical Market Outlook:
    GBP/JPY remains locked inside the sideways consolidation between 135.41 and 136.59 and we will need a break out of this consolidation-area for the next meaningfull move. We prefer a break above resistance at 136.59, but the longer GBP/JPY stays locked inside this sideways consolidation, the risk for a break below support at 135.41 rises for a final spike towards 133.87.

    A break above 136.59 will confirm that red wave iv/ has completed and red wave v/ to above 142.72 is in motion.
    R3: 137.10
    R2: 136.60
    R1: 136.06
    Pivot: 135.90
    S1: 135.75
    S2: 135.50
    S3: 135.25

    Trading recommendation:
    We are long GBP from 135.55 and we will move our stop to 135.35

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  5. #755
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    Forecast for USD/JPY on September 18, 2020

    USD/JPY
    The USD/JPY pair retested the trend line from below and continued to decline on Thursday. The yen lost 21 points, but today there is a correction in the Asian session. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is reversing to the upside, which indicates the price's intention to continue doing so until the evening or Monday. After the correction is completed, the price can fall to the previously indicated target of 103.75.



    The price formed a short convergence with the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart, this is a sign of the upcoming sideways price movement. There will probably be no strong movements in the market until the beginning of next week.



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  6. #756
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    Forecast for AUD/USD on September 21, 2020

    AUD/USD
    The dollar index strengthened by 0.10% on Friday, it was enough for the overbought Australian to fall by 22 points (-0.30%). The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has sharply turned down and penetrated the zone of negative values, although it is trying to go back up at the moment. We assume this is the effect of price fluctuations. We expect the price to overcome the first target of 0.7249 (September 10 low) and continue to fall to the second target of 0.7110 (August 12 low).



    The price fluctuates around the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. On the technical side, this means waiting for another impulse from the external market. The Marlin oscillator turned into a new wave of decline from the border of the growth area, which is a leading sign of a market reversal.



    We are waiting for the technical signals to be confirmed. This will probably not happen until Tuesday.

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  7. #757
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on September 22, 2020

    EUR/USD
    There was a slight panic in the market on Monday. Due to the development of the second wave of coronavirus in Europe and the United States, investors began to fear the widespread closure of economies, as the UK intends to do from today. The maximum restrictions in England are introduced from the 28th. The British stock index FTSE 100 fell 3.38%. The European EuroStoxx 50 index lost 3.74%, while the US S&P 500 was down -1.16%. Investors started buying the dollar as a defensive currency and the euro fell 68 points.



    The price attacked the lower border of the two-month consolidation range at 1.1760, now it is ready to reach the nearest target at 1.1650. Then (after a local correction), we expect it to fall towards 1.1550.



    The decline occurs without reversal signals on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for the price to settle under 1.1760 and further progress towards the indicated targets.

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  8. #758
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 23, 2020



    We are still expecting a final dip closer to our ideal target at 122.15 to complete wave 2/ and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave 3/ to above the former peak at 127.07. In the short-term, a minor triangle is developing as the penultimate wave and this should ultimate give away for the final dip to 122.15 to complete wave 2/.

    Only a direct break above minor resistance at 123.42 wil indicate that wave 2/ already has completed while a break above resistance at 124.01 will confirm that wave 3/ is in motion.
    R3: 124.40
    R2: 124.01
    R1: 123.66
    Pivot: 123.30
    S1: 122.87
    S2: 122.53
    S3: 122.15

    Trading recommendation:
    We are short EUR from 123.90 and we will buy+revers our short position to a long EUR-position at 123.25 or upon a break above 123.45

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  9. #759
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    Forecast for USD/JPY on September 24, 2020

    USD/JPY
    The Japanese yen broke through the price channel line and reached the intermediate Fibonacci level of 110.0% on Wednesday. The powerful convergence of the price and the Marlin oscillator continues to work, now the yen is aiming for the Fibonacci level of 106.00, or slightly higher, where the MACD line passes. But the main goal of the USD/JPY pair is the upper line of the price channel (also embedded) around the area of the 106.40 level, since overcoming it will guarantee a medium-term price growth (targets 107.35, 108.20 and higher).




    The four-hour chart shows that the price has firmly settled in the area above the balance and MACD indicator lines. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator falls into the horizon, which may be a harbinger of a local price decline in the 105.00/15 range, formed by support of the MACD line (H4) and the price channel line (daily).



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  10. #760
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    Evening review on September 24, 2020



    The EURUSD pair prospects possible decline.

    The unemployment claims in the US for the long-term practically remain unchanged at 12.6 million. Note that there was a notable decrease of 700,000 just a week earlier.

    Nevertheless, the euro continues to decline.
    You may keep selling from 1.1735 with a stop at 1.1760.

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