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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 02/15/2021 We can absolutely calmly say that the single European currency ...

      
   
  1. #861
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 02/15/2021

    We can absolutely calmly say that the single European currency has actually stood still for several days in a row. Of course it gradually decreased for nearly the entirety of Friday, and it completely won back all these losses closer to the end of the US session. But the scale of these movements, at best, can be called extremely modest. Something in the region of thirty points one way and the other. Which, in general, is not surprising, since the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty on Friday. So there was simply nothing for investors to grab onto.



    Today the situation is somewhat different, as data on retail sales will be published in Europe, which should show zero growth. More precisely, they can show no change in annual terms. And oddly enough, this can be perceived as an extremely positive factor, since the European industry has been declining for twenty-five consecutive months. That is, it has been decreasing since November 2018. The data for December last year will be published today. In general, despite the depressing state of affairs in the European industry, the fact that the recession has stopped already seems like incredible growth, which will contribute to the euro's appreciation. Industrial production (Europe):



    After a short pullback from the resistance point of 1.2150, the EURUSD pair returned to the area of last week's high, while showing interest in growth.

    The market dynamics is below average, while local jumps are slipping in the market, which indicates that speculators are on it.

    Based on the quote's current location, it is clear that market participants are already practically touching the resistance level of 1.2150, where, given the recent pullback, a regrouping of trading forces could have occurred, which will positively affect the volume of long positions.

    Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that the quote follows in the structure of the corrective move from the high of the medium-term trend of 1.2349, where, taking into account the recovery, we are about halfway from the high of the trend.

    We can assume that the recovery process relative to the corrective move may continue to be present in the market, but in order to do so, the quote needs to stay above 1.2155, which will open the way in the direction of 1.2190, this is the first point of a possible move.

    In case the price does not surpass the 1.2155 level on a four-hour period, then a fluctuation along the 1.2110/1.2160 range is not excluded.

    From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments signal a buy, since the quote can be found in the 1.2150 region.



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  2. #862
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elon Musk continues to manipulate the currency market



    Once again, news from Elon Musk, who has recently become extremely interested in the cryptocurrency market, comes out. Recall that at first, his comment on the social network led to an increase in bitcoin by $5 thousand, and then his company Tesla announced the purchase of bitcoin in the amount of $1.5 billion, which provoked an increase of another $5,000. Thus, in principle, only Elon Musk is responsible for a fifth of the cost of the "cue ball" at this time. It's scary to imagine what will happen if Musk or other similar businessmen comment on cryptocurrencies every couple of days. However, Musk decided to give bitcoin a break and switched to the Dogecoin cryptocurrency. In the social network Twitter, Musk made a post in which he supports the potential solution of large holders of the Dogecoin. According to Musk, the problem with the token is that it is concentrated in too narrow a circle of owners. After this statement, Dogecoin fell by 19%. Earlier, the same Elon Musk commented on the same cryptocurrency Dogecoin (wrote that it is undervalued) and then followed a powerful growth. Thus, only one owner of Tesla is responsible for four powerful jumps in the cryptocurrency market and this is only in the last 7-10 days. Well, traders can once again personally observe what is happening in the cryptocurrency market and what are the reasons for this. Bitcoin, by the way, this night again rose in price and is already worth almost $50,000 per coin. At the same time, it is still extremely difficult to name at least one fundamental reason why the cryptocurrency has grown 5 times in a few months. And it's not just Bitcoin that's growing! Other cryptocurrencies are also being pulled up, ergo, the entire cryptocurrency market is growing. The more news of this nature from Elon Musk or other major investors and companies we will receive, the more likely it is that cryptocurrencies will continue to grow in price. We continue to insist that sooner or later there will be a collapse. There will not be a scenario in which bitcoin will grow to $100,000 per coin, and then adjust to $80,000 and remain at this level in the medium term. No, when large investors start taking profits on long positions, then the "domino effect" will begin, everyone will immediately rush to sell bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies at the maximum value, which will lead to the collapse of the entire cryptocurrency market, as it was already in 2017. Therefore, we still believe that bitcoin is a great tool to make money, but we need to be prepared for its collapse.


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  3. #863
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 17, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the euro failed to take the opportunity to reach the 1.2190-1.2272 range. The excellent European ZEW Economic Sentiment did not even provide support to the euro, which grew from 58.3 to 69.6 while expectations were at 59.2, and the GDP for the fourth quarter showed a decline of -0.6% against the forecasts at -0.7%. But investors were happy with the growth of activity in the manufacturing sector in New York, which showed an increase from 3.5 to 12.1. As a result, the euro lost 23 points in a day.

    Today, investors have more serious reasons for strengthening the dollar: retail sales for January are forecast to grow by 1.1%, industrial production is expected to grow by 0.5%.



    The price moves back down below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, while the Marlin indicator also returns to the downward trend zone. Now the price is facing the 1.1870-1.1915 target.



    The price also goes under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, while Marlin has already consolidated in the zone of negative values. We look forward to further weakening of the euro.

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  4. #864
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 18



    The situation with COVID-19 is stabilizing. There is a strong decline in incidence in both United States and Europe. In fact, the US steadily recorded new cases below 100,000.

    Vaccinations are also starting to progress rapidly, but only in the US and Britain.



    EUR/USD is trading downwards. Primarily, this is because of strong economic data from the US.

    Open short positions from 1.2080 to 1.2125.

    Price will continue to decline if employment data (in the US) also comes out better than expected.

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  5. #865
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 19, 2021

    AUD/USD
    The support of the balance indicator line has confirmed its impact on the price. After reaching the lower shadow, the price successfully broke through the entire range of 0.7765/83 and closed the day inside it. However, it is now trying to leave it in order to decline. In this case, the price should consolidate below yesterday's low, and move below the balance indicator line. If so, we can expect the downward trend to extend to the target range of 0.7625/41. The Marlin Oscillator is in the area of positive levels, and thus, we should get ready to break through this today.



    In the H4 chart, yesterday's low of 0.7732 is located below the MACD line (blue moving average). This level can be a good pivot point to determine the price's intention to continue its decline. Here, the Marlin Oscillator is in the negative trend zone. It is possible that an attack on the signal level of 0.7732 will be made today, but the development can only be expected next week.



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  6. #866
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 22, 2021

    GBP/USD

    The pound was trying to reach the target level of 1.4070 on the reversing Marlin oscillator last Friday and also this morning. The price, especially with the support from the growth of other world currencies, still has the opportunity not only to reach this level, but also to rise above it. But if there is no such support, the price will return to the 1.3950/65 range and, after settling below it, will go further down to the target level of 1.3835.



    The four-hour chart shows that the probability of forming a divergence with the Marlin oscillator still remains, only it will be weaker. The divergence will not be broken if the price rises to the 1.4070 level. To open short positions, you are advised to wait for the price to settle under the range of 1.3950/65.



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  7. #867
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 23, 2021


    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the euro received strong ideological support from the expected growth trends in US government bond yields. The yield on 5-year securities did not grow very high, but it overcame the psychological level of 0.60% and there were forecasts (rather expectations) of growth to 1.0%, 1.5% and even 2.0%. If this goes on, then the euro will have great prospects. The Federal Reserve should somehow intervene in the emerging situation, because with a government debt of 27.896 trillion. dollars, to which another 1.9 trillion will be added. according to the "Biden plan", its maintenance will be difficult. We believe that the US central bank will take control of the yield curve earlier than the markets expect. It is possible that the media are already fulfilling a social order, raising a fuss on this issue



    Now the euro is facing the task of consolidating above the 1.2190 level. In this case, the subsequent correction from the 8th Fibonacci timeline will not be deep, approximately to the MACD indicator line (1.2100), afterwards the price may continue to rise to the upper target of 1.2272. The price is above the balance indicator line, while Marlin moves into the positive trend zone, the probability of growth is 80%.



    The price reversed from the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart, it increases without signs of a reversal.

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  8. #868
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 24, 2021


    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the euro stopped rising on its way to the nearest target of 1.2190, but it is still determined to reach not only this target, but also 1.2272. Drifting under the MACD line, below 1.2105, will return the euro to a downward trend.



    The price rises on the four-hour timescale, while the Marlin oscillator turns up. We are waiting for the price to overcome the first target at 1.2190.



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  9. #869
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 25, 2021

    USD/JPY
    The US dollar showed a significant increase against the Japanese yen on Wednesday. Thus, it is now possible not only to reach the target range of 106.50/65 in the near future, but also to break through it, with the aim to rise further towards the target range of 107.35/50.



    The price consolidated above both the balance indicator (red) and MACD lines in the H4 chart. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator is in the upper zone. The upward trend is likely to strengthen after the price managed to break through the February 17 high set at 106.23.



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  10. #870
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 26, 2021

    GBP/USD
    The technical spike, that the British pound formed on Thursday, completely worked out yesterday - the pair dropped 128 points. The price reached the target range of 1.3950/65 this morning. Falling below the lower border of this range opens the next target at 1.3830 - the low on February 17. A correction is likely from this level, since by this time the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will reach the border with the territory of the downtrend and, most likely, will not overcome it on the first attempt.



    The price settled below both indicator lines on the four-hour chart - balance and MACD, while Marlin is deeply in the negative zone. The trend is completely downward.



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