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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. April 28. The Market is Tired of the Dollar



The EUR/USD currency pair started the new week with an upward movement, although there were no particular reasons for traders to buy the pair. It is worth noting that a vast number of events and news occur in the world every day, but why should they matter to currency traders if they have no impact on the exchange rate of the dollar or the euro? For example, over the weekend, there was already a second "attempt" on Donald Trump. In the first instance, the shooter expertly hit the U.S. president in the ear, yet following that incident, no one saw Trump with any injuries or damage to his hearing apparatus. It's hard to imagine what kind of person could hit a target in the ear from several hundred meters away with a sniper rifle. In the second instance (over the weekend), an unknown assailant broke into the White House and opened fire on the nearest security officer. Unlike the first instance, they only hit the bulletproof vest, causing no injuries to the security personnel. It should be noted that Trump was in the White House at the time of the event, but the shooter would have had to navigate through several dozen rooms and encounter hundreds of guards along the way.

Trump naturally labeled this event as an "attempt on his modest persona," but, realistically, if Trump's motorcade were to travel down one of the streets of Washington, and an assailant several blocks away opened fire, that too could be considered an attempt on his life. Thus, we pay little attention to such events, just as we do to the continuous stream of geopolitical news pouring in from the Middle East, which holds no real meaning or significance. For instance, what is the purpose of constant, daily reports on whether negotiations between Iran and the US are either set to resume or not? The media has been publishing various insider insights and secret information for a week, but representatives from Tehran and Washington have yet to meet, and Iran continues to hold firm: no negotiations until the Americans lift the blockade on Iranian ports.

Therefore, the matter is settled—there will be no negotiations in the near future. Against the backdrop of the absence of further movement toward de-escalation of the conflict and peace in the Middle East, oil prices are rising again, and the global economy is edging toward recession. It is essential to understand that oil shortages are not the worst scenario. The most concerning situation is the combination of oil shortages and rising prices. If oil prices are increasing, it means that all goods and services will become more expensive in one way or another. Rising prices for all goods and services do not mean that consumers will simply pay more; rather, they will likely buy and spend less. If they buy and spend less, industrial production will decline, import and export volumes will drop, and economic and business activity will wane, resulting in a slowdown in economic growth. This is a widespread problem at present.



The geopolitical factor has receded into the background, while the long-term upward trend remains relevant. Thus, nothing prevents the euro from continuing its growth. The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 28 is 59 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1672 and 1.1790 on Tuesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a trend change to bearish. However, there may actually be a resumption of the upward trend for 2025. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a potential downward pullback.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on April 29? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:



There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday, but important economic information will finally begin to come to the market. Today, we advise paying attention to durable goods orders in the U.S. and to inflation in Germany. The market may well ignore both reports, as they do not hold "super-significant" status, and for the past two months, traders have paid little attention to even important reports.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:



Among the fundamental events, the FOMC meeting stands out, as it will be the last under Jerome Powell's tenure as chairman. No significant decisions are expected, as the market is confident that the key rate will remain unchanged. At the press conference, Powell will likely maintain a wait-and-see stance, and his rhetoric is unlikely to change significantly from previous speeches. Thus, even at the FOMC meeting, the market's reaction may be quite weak and will not significantly impact the technical picture for either currency pair.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to astonish with its level of uncertainty, preventing central banks from rushing into important monetary policy decisions. The war in the Middle East may resume if a deal between Iran and the U.S. is not signed. A deal cannot be signed if Iran does not even agree to a second round of negotiations. Meanwhile, the ceasefire continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

General Conclusions: On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may exhibit high volatility in the evening, but during the day, technical factors will again prevail. The euro can be traded today in the ranges of 1.1655-1.1666 and 1.1745-1.1754, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3476-1.3489. The correction for both currency pairs may continue, but the market may pay attention to today's FOMC meeting, which could provoke further movements.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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