Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. March 25. Geopolitics: More Rumors than Facts



The EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Tuesday than the day before. Donald Trump held back on promises to end the war in the Middle East this time, but knowing Trump, negotiations between Washington and Tehran may indeed be taking place. The problem is that Trump enjoys shocking the markets. He can build tension for weeks (as he did with Greenland) and then pull back.

He can say one thing and do completely another. He can remain silent for weeks and then douse the markets with a bucket of cold water. Therefore, it makes little sense to guess what is really happening in the Middle East. However, the markets do not know how to remain passive. If you can predict future events, it means you can profit from them. This has always been the case. Traders and investors have always tried to anticipate specific events with a certain degree of probability. So now, with Trump announcing negotiations and a possible end to the war, it means that the American president is at least open to a ceasefire. Of course, this is a rather hypocritical ceasefire. For three weeks, the US and its allies bombed Iran, and now it seems they are tired of it and suddenly want peace. Meanwhile, Iran has reciprocated in kind. Perhaps Trump understands that achieving the set goals will be impossible, or perhaps the goals have indeed been achieved: nuclear facilities have been destroyed or nearly destroyed. If so, why continue costly military operations that fuel inflation in the US, thereby effectively blocking the monetary easing that Trump desperately needs?

Iran also has no desire for the continuation of war; it has endured all strikes on its territory and infrastructure and has maintained its sovereignty and independence. What is the point of continuing to fight against a not-so-wealthy country that has been surviving for decades, not living? Thus, the likelihood of at least ceasing hostilities is quite high. In recent days, there have even been reports that civilian vessels have started passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran is simply charging a fee for the passage of tankers. It is difficult to assess how true this is, but as we know, there is no smoke without fire. If the Strait of Hormuz is opened under any conditions, it would already be half a solution to the problem.

However, we fear that the entire story about a possible end to the war could be a maneuver by Trump to lull Iran's vigilance and then deliver new strikes. This scenario cannot be ruled out either. Therefore, the euro and the pound received support from geopolitics this week, but we can only talk about an upward trend once there is a real de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The market may return to buying the US currency at any moment if it realizes that Trump has once again misled everyone.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of March 25 is 111 pips and is characterized as "high." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1479 and 1.1701 on Wednesday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a trend reversal. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, warning once again of the completion of the downward trend.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. March 26. Trump Negotiates. By Himself



The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Wednesday amid a complete lack of significant macroeconomic and fundamental events, as well as only geopolitical rumors. In terms of fundamentals and macroeconomics, such market behavior does not surprise us at all. For over a month, traders have been reacting only to geopolitical events. Otherwise, the dollar would merrily plunge into the abyss again. It is worth recalling that nearly all recent reports from across the ocean have been disappointing, yet the dollar remains in demand as a "safe haven." It should also be noted that the ECB and the Bank of England have demonstrated their readiness to raise key rates at the next meeting in response to a likely acceleration in inflation, while the Fed has only postponed further easing indefinitely. Thus, almost all factors, except for geopolitics, are sharply against the dollar. However, the dollar remains relatively expensive because the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. A massive number of rumors and insider reports are circulating, indicating completely opposite developments. Some suggest active preparations for negotiations, while others point to a new escalation of military actions. Who should one believe? The market no longer trusts anyone. If on Monday Donald Trump openly stated that he was having productive talks with Iran, and just half an hour later Tehran bewilderingly rejected the idea of any negotiations, then what insider information can traders trust? It should be understood that most so-called insiders are merely newspaper hoaxes intended to increase traffic to a particular resource or boost sales of certain publications. Quite simply, these are standard journalistic tactics to attract attention to their own articles and profit from it. Typically, the source of the insider is not even disclosed. That's why it's called an insider! Therefore, any journalist can say anything, citing "their own sources." The truthfulness of such statements and news can currently be assessed. Iran's official position is that no negotiations are underway at this time and, moreover, that they are pointless. According to rumors, Donald Trump, through Pakistan, proposed a 15-point agreement to Tehran, the contents of which are unknown. One can only speculate that it concerns the easing of sanctions and the negotiation of Iran's nuclear program. At the same time, the US has begun redeploying ground troops to the Middle East, likely in the event negotiations fail. However, how can negotiations fail if they are not even taking place? All of this resembles that Trump is actively pretending to want to end the war or simply does not know how to do it, and therefore is willing to take any measures. A far more likely scenario is not negotiations, but further escalation. Iran continues to stand firm—no one dares to dictate what Tehran should do. Until Washington accepts this position of a sovereign state, any negotiations are impossible by definition.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of March 26 is 109 pips and is characterized as "high." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1461 and 1.1679 on Thursday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the conclusion of the downward trend.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis of EUR/USD on March 27. Euro Prospects Are Crumbling

EUR/USD 5M Analysis



he EUR/USD currency pair declined further on Thursday and ultimately approached the ascending trend line and the important Senkou Span B line. A breakout of these two lines today would essentially pave the way for the dollar to rise again. However, if the support levels hold against the bearish pressure, the euro could have a chance of a new upward move. Nevertheless, recent weeks have shown how weak the European currency is under the current, grim geopolitical circumstances. Yesterday, the geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East did not worsen, but today, Donald Trump could issue a new order to attack Iran. The five-day deadline that Trump generously granted Tehran on Monday expires today. Since no negotiations or ceasefires have been observed, the US may soon begin strikes on Iranian energy and attempt a ground operation. Thus, geopolitical events clearly do not strengthen the European currency. Technically, the upward trend is still intact but is hanging by a thread. A consolidation below the trend line would, once again, mean we will not see a normal upward trend. The market continues to ignore all factors except geopolitical ones, which, in most cases, support the dollar. On the 5-minute timeframe, two sell signals and one buy signal were formed yesterday. The movements throughout the day were weak, making it extremely difficult to profit. Throughout the European session, the pair attempted to form a rebound from the Kijun-sen line before showing a downward movement of 25 pips. However, sellers' joy was short-lived. By half an hour later, a buy signal formed, but it also did not bring any profit to traders.

COT Report



The last COT report dates back to March 17. The weekly chart clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is swiftly declining due to geopolitical events at the beginning of 2026. Traders are dumping the European currency in favor of the US dollar. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar is once again acting as a "reserve currency," which is driving a sharp influx of buyers. We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the European currency. However, there are plenty of factors for the decline of the American dollar. The war in the Middle East has temporarily made the dollar super attractive, but once this factor loses its relevance, everything could revert to the mean. In the long term, the euro could fall to levels as low as 1.06 (the trend line), but the upward trend remains relevant. The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate a retention of the "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, long positions for the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 52,800, while short positions increased by 31,200. Consequently, the net position has decreased by 84,000 contracts over the week.

EUR/USD 1H Analysis



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a weak and uncertain upward trend that is on the verge of being canceled. New escalations in the Middle East, new shocks in the oil or gas markets, and the expansion of the conflict beyond the Middle East could provoke a new wave of dollar buying; therefore, the current trend is quite formal. Any increase in the European currency now is inherently unstable and depends on Trump's will. For March 27, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the lines Senkou Span B (1.1538) and Kijun-sen (1.1563). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a stop-loss order at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will safeguard against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Friday, no significant events are scheduled in the European Union, while in the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be published. Volatility throughout the day may again leave much to be desired unless geopolitical factors intervene.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. April 3. The Market Loves to Trip Over the Same Rake



The EUR/USD currency pair turned around and this time headed downward. What is happening in the world, in the US, in the White House, and in Trump's mind resembles some kind of farce. Regular readers know that we often use the words "farce" or "circus" whenever Trump becomes the President of the United States. How else can one react to the statements of the American President? Previously, Trump alternated between contradictory rhetoric over separate days; now, in a single speech, he can make a dozen conflicting statements.

If earlier Trump limited himself to mere insults aimed at those who displeased him, he now also initiates legal investigations and invents various pretexts for dismissals or even for military operations on foreign territory. Various statistical portals, like YouGov, previously recorded about 15 false statements per day from the American president, but they have likely lost count since it is now difficult to determine which statements are false. Or are all of them false? It seems that Trump's rhetoric is a form of NLP (neuro-linguistic programming) aimed at impacting the subconscious through verbal methods. Interestingly, the market eagerly processes each new statement from Trump. As the tone and nature of these statements change at the speed of light, we see constant price jumps on the charts, alternating between up and down. In other words, the market repeatedly steps on the same rake— it believes Trump. Although the term "stepping on" was valid during the first term of the Republican in the White House.

Now the market is well aware of all the methods used by the controversial businessman, yet it continues to jump from a running start onto the same rakes. Naturally, for traders, the current time is extremely unattractive for trading. Firstly, the market completely ignores any macroeconomic background. Secondly, the market ignores any fundamental background. Thirdly, the market disregards all technical factors. All market movements now depend on Trump's statements and, occasionally, on official Iranian figures. This means that such events cannot be predicted in advance. Moreover, it is impossible not only to predict what Trump will say but also when he will say it. For example, all traders know that the Non-Farm Payroll report will be released today. Some may expect a strong figure, others a weak one, while some may choose not to take risks and just exit the market.

In the case of Trump, the last scenario is impossible, since he gives speeches or posts on social media five to ten times a day. Similarly, the market cannot physically know when Trump or Tehran will strike the next blow against enemy infrastructure. The result is the unpredictable swings that no one on Earth could forecast except for Trump himself or high-ranking officials in Iran and other Middle Eastern countries.




The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 3 is 83 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1463 and 1.1629 on Friday. The upper channel of linear regression has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the completion of the downward trend. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1475 S2 – 1.1353 S3 – 1.1230 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1597 R2 – 1.1719 R3 – 1.1841 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, prompted by geopolitics. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative; however, for over a month, the market has been focusing solely on geopolitics, making all other factors virtually irrelevant. If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1463 and 1.1353. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1629 and 1.1719. For a stronger upward movement, the geopolitical backdrop needs to begin stabilizing.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. Weekly Preview. A New Week – New Opportunities for the Dollar



The EUR/USD currency pair traded with a volatility of 37 pips on Friday. This level of volatility was expected by traders on the day of the publication of the US Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. However, we are not particularly surprised by such a "wonderful" result, as we have repeatedly stated that the macroeconomic background has almost no impact on the pair's movement. We were uncertain whether the market would completely ignore such crucial reports from the US, but it turns out that nothing is impossible. Thus, we can say right away that not much will change next week. Of course, we will consider the most important macroeconomic reports, but they are unlikely to significantly affect traders' sentiment. Geopolitics will still be at the forefront. Donald Trump may launch a new strike on Iran in the coming days, thereby provoking another escalation in the Middle East. We struggle to understand the sense in a new strike, especially against energy targets, given that Tehran has already made it clear that it intends to continue defending its sovereignty, independence, and political course. New strikes on Iranian territory will only provoke further retaliation from Middle Eastern countries. However, Trump cannot simply retreat. More accurately, he can, but likely does not want to. Trump understands that the longer the war continues, the lower his political ratings fall. Trump himself will not participate in the 2026 elections; however, the political ratings are falling not only for Trump but for the entire Republican Party. American voters understand that a Republican victory in the congressional elections would allow Trump to make decisions essentially unopposed. The first year of his presidency clearly demonstrated what those decisions might be and how the standard of living for Americans could rise as a result. Therefore, we believe that Americans will vote for the Democrats simply to prevent the Republicans from winning. Thus, Trump should currently focus on saving at least one chamber of Congress. To achieve this, he needs to end the war in Iran and also start doing something for his own country. For example, boosting the economy, improving relations with trading partners, and working on restoring the labor market. However, it is likely that Trump will choose a different path. Therefore, we expect new strikes on Iran, which could trigger another rise in energy prices and strengthen the dollar. In the Eurozone, there will be very few interesting reports this week. For the Eurozone, the interesting reports include only retail sales, while Germany will release second estimates of business activity indexes, trade balance, industrial production, and the second inflation estimate. As we can see, there are unlikely to be any reports that will influence the pair's movements under the current circumstances. From a technical perspective, the pair has traded between 1.1450 and 1.1630 over the past two weeks.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 6 is 81 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1434 and 1.1596 on Monday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the completion of the downward trend.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. April 7. Risk Is A Noble Cause, But Not Under Current Circumstances



The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very weakly and reluctantly on Monday. This is not surprising, as according to the Catholic calendar, April 6 is Easter Monday. Firstly, it is a holiday. Secondly, by April 6, Donald Trump could have given the order for a new air operation in Iran. As a result, traders were not inclined to open positions from the beginning. After several weeks, it can be confidently said that the market has not rushed to buy or sell the dollar for quite some time. We have regularly stated that no matter how strong the geopolitical factor is, the market cannot constantly react to it. The war between Ukraine and Russia has been going on for five years, yet no one among investors and traders is overly concerned about it anymore. Initially, military actions in Eastern Europe significantly impacted oil prices and oil flows.

Therefore, we believe that geopolitics has started to recede into the background. For now, it's just the initial stage of this retreat, as the macroeconomic background continues to be ignored by the market. However, we no longer see daily dollar growth, even though the situation in the Middle East is not improving. In our view, the market is not in a wait-and-see position but rather in a last hope position. Trump has postponed the final deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for the third time. This deadline now expires today at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. What will happen next is likely something everyone can guess. Iran continues to hold its position and is not prepared to make any concessions. We hear about negotiations between Tehran and Washington only from Trump's lips, but it's difficult to believe in the existence of negotiations when Trump threatens total destruction of Iran almost every day. We believe that in these circumstances, it is best to rely on fortune-telling with coffee grounds. Trump's actions are impossible to predict, and Iran does not confirm the presence of negotiations.

Numerous insider reports often contradict each other, as every journalist has their own source, and sources share vastly differing information. Therefore, as before, it is best to wait for reliable information and work with it. We would like to remind you that, at this time, all fundamental, macroeconomic, and technical factors are of no significance. The price has been swinging up and down in recent weeks, not because it is in a range, but because the geopolitical backdrop is constantly changing—approximately every two days. This is one of those rare cases where sideways movement fully reflects the news background.

Regarding the medium-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair, we still believe that if the conflict in the Middle East concludes soon, the European currency will resume its rise and quickly return to this year's highs. The dollar's only chance lies in further escalation in the Middle East.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 7 is 79 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1469 and 1.1627 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and has formed a "bullish" divergence, which serves as another warning of the potential completion of the downward trend.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair on April 8. The Songs and Dances Continue



The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very sluggishly on Tuesday, ultimately settling into a sideways channel. On the 4-hour time frame, it is now clear that the price has traded primarily between 1.1450 and 1.1620 over the past few weeks. Thus, we are not just looking at a semblance of a flat market but a genuine flat. However, this is a very rare type of flat, where all movements leading to its formation are indeed caused by specific events.

Typically, a flat forms not because every subsequent piece of news contradicts the previous ones, forcing the price to jump up and down. A flat forms when the market needs a pause to distribute or accumulate new positions. Therefore, the price moves sideways, and during this time, the market either ignores fundamental and macroeconomic events or reacts to them only minimally. Currently, the situation is the opposite. Each subsequent geopolitical event contradicts the previous one, causing the price to fluctuate.

The macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop is being ignored by the market. The key question now is whether the EUR/USD pair has reached its "bottom." Many experts are discussing a "bottom" in the market, but they also acknowledge that the pair may continue to decline if the situation in the Middle East worsens. The general consensus in the current context is as follows: in the long term, the euro is expected to rise due to the contradictory and destructive policies of Trump; in the short term, the dollar could strengthen due to complicated geopolitical issues; if the geopolitical landscape does not change drastically in the near future, flat trends will persist. Therefore, traders are left to wait for new developments in the Middle East.

It seems they won't have to wait long. Just yesterday, Iran attacked a petrochemical facility in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. Tonight, Donald Trump may order another bombing of Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not unblocked. Interestingly, in recent days, some vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but the terms of the agreement with Tehran remain unknown. Thus, the situation around Hormuz is officially improving, though a complete unblocking is still not on the table. Additionally, it has been reported that Tehran has provided Washington with a list of 10 points necessary to resolve all disputes. Specifically, Iran is demanding security guarantees, a cessation of strikes, reparations for destroyed infrastructure, and a complete lifting of sanctions. Does anyone believe that Trump will meet these conditions? Moreover, Iran now wants to charge $2 million from each tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz... In our view, a new wave of conflict in the Middle East is inevitable.




The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 8 is 68 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1502 and 1.1638 on Wednesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned down, indicating a shift in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the completion of the downward trend.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair on April 9. The TACO Principle Haunts the Markets Again



The EUR/USD currency pair soared upward by at least 130 points on Wednesday, reacting to the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. We will discuss the ceasefire in more detail, as there is indeed a lot to say on this matter. But let's start with the facts. Last night, Donald Trump announced that an agreement had been reached between Tehran and Washington for a two-week ceasefire. Interestingly, the basis for the ceasefire was not the 15-point list of ultimatums from Trump, but rather a 10-point list of demands from Iran.

The U.S. president called it fair and stated that the next two weeks would be spent reaching a full ceasefire. Iran, for its part, committed to opening the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, which immediately led to a drop in oil prices from $106 to $90. In the currency market, only the U.S. dollar depreciated. Overall, exactly what we expected happened. As soon as Iran and the U.S. began official negotiations and the markets "sensed" a ceasefire, the dollar lost all support. The dollar is no longer of interest as a safe currency and "safe haven."

For several weeks, it may continue to fall simply because it has lost its only support factor—geopolitics. The market may then remember the vast amounts of macroeconomic data from the U.S. that have been actively ignored over the past two months. It may recall the impending divergence in monetary policy among the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Fed. It may also be remembered that Donald Trump's policies, which led to a significant depreciation of the dollar last year, have not changed at all. All these factors could return the EUR/USD pair to an upward trajectory.

Naturally, such a scenario will only be possible if the conflicting parties genuinely make every effort over the next two weeks to resolve the conflict. Otherwise, everything will likely revert quite quickly to the situation of 2026. However, at this time, one cannot help but wish for the end of the conflict. Interestingly, the euro's exchange rate quickly recovered to the 1.1700-1.1750 range, suggesting it has only about 400 points to reach this year's highs. What are 400 points when there are still three-quarters of a year left? Recall that, like many other analysts, we believe that 2026 will be the year of a new decline for the American currency.

Of course, we cannot know when Trump will begin the next war or what policies the American president will adhere to until the elections in November. But if he wants to retain at least one chamber of Congress, he will need to quickly improve relations with the American electorate. Currently, the American electorate is set against Trump, just as they were six years ago. Americans are ready to vote for anyone but Trump; under the current circumstances, that means any Democrat. Interestingly, on the daily time frame, despite the significant drop in February and March, the EUR/USD pair has not fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci level... just as it did before...



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 9 is 83 pips, characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1606 and 1.1772 on Thursday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a potential trend change. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory, signaling a potential downward correction in the near future.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on April 10. The Market Is Unfazed by the Resumption of Fire

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Thursday, though the market move was rather unclear. Recall that the ceasefire between Iran, the U.S., and Israel did not last even a day. By Wednesday afternoon, Israel had attacked Lebanon, Iran had struck Bahrain and Kuwait, and the U.S. also launched strikes on oil refineries in Iran. It seemed like the best scenario for the U.S. dollar could not be imagined. However, this time, the market ignored the resurgence of hostilities in the Middle East. The only explanation is that the market believes the war is now temporary.

Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. continue and have a chance of long-term success. Therefore, the dollar continues to weaken amid decreasing tensions in the Middle East, even though the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. It is also important to note the GDP report in the third estimate for the fourth quarter in the U.S. Recall that the first estimate was 1.4%, the second was 0.7%, and the third came in at a mere 0.5%. Thus, the American economy slowed three times in the same quarter. Naturally, this report did not boost the sentiment of dollar buyers, but we do not believe it was fully factored in by traders. The market has ignored almost all macroeconomic data over the past two months. On the 5-minute time frame on Thursday, exactly one trading signal was formed. During the European trading session, the pair bounced off the area of 1.1657-1.1666 and moved only upward for the remaining part of the day. As a result, traders who opened long positions could earn around 35-40 pips.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated March 31. The illustration of the weekly time frame clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly declining amid geopolitical events. Traders are mass-selling the euro in favor of the U.S. dollar. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar is once again acting as a "reserve currency," which ensures high demand for it. We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting a strengthening of the euro. However, there are plenty of factors that could lead to the decline of the American dollar. The war in the Middle East has temporarily made the dollar super attractive, but once this factor expires, everything could revert to the previous state. In the long term, the euro could fall to as low as 1.06 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the maintenance of a "bullish" trend. Over the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 100, while the number of shorts increased by 8,900. Consequently, the net position has decreased by another 8,800 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair has begun a new upward trend. However, a new escalation in the Middle East could once again shift traders' trading priorities, so any rise should be approached with caution. In the near future, we need to determine whether a ceasefire exists, whether further negotiations will take place between the parties, and how successful they may be. This will affect the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair. For April 10, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1542) and Kijun-sen line (1.1614). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a stop-loss order to breakeven if the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips.


This will help safeguard against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Friday, Germany will publish the second estimate of March inflation, while the U.S. will release March inflation data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. We believe traders may react only to the U.S. consumer price index, and even then, it's not guaranteed. Geopolitics remains the primary concern for traders in terms of importance.

Trading Recommendations: On Friday, traders may consider short positions if the price bounces from the 1.1750-1.1760 area, targeting 1.1657-1.1666. Long positions can be held with a target of 1.1750-1.1760, as the price has rebounded from the 1.1657-1.1666 area.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. Weekly Preview. Negotiations in Pakistan as the Foundation for Everything



The EUR/USD currency pair will attempt to develop an upward impulse in the new week. Last week showed that the market believes in successful negotiations between Iran and the US, but anticipates they may be difficult and prolonged. However, as we have already stated, a long path to peace is better than the continuation of war. This is the first factor for a potential rise of the euro.

The second factor is the fading importance of geopolitical factors. We have previously mentioned that geopolitics has its own "expiration date." In other words, if the war in Iran continues for another year, it is unlikely that the US dollar will keep rising solely on this factor, while ignoring all others. Recall that in the last two months, almost all macroeconomic reports and fundamental events (for example, central bank meetings) were ignored. Even on Friday, when an important inflation report was released in the US, there was no market reaction.

On Thursday, the US released a disappointing fourth-quarter GDP report, which also did not reflect on the charts. Thus, geopolitical factors will remain in focus but in a somewhat different form. As of Sunday, the negotiations in Islamabad have not yielded positive results. However, they could resume soon, according to both sides. Therefore, we would not entirely dismiss the possibility of a ceasefire. Two scenarios are possible. The first is that peace is signed. Naturally, in this case, the euro will continue to rise. More accurately, the US dollar will continue to fall as the market no longer needs a "safe haven." Recall that over the last two months, the dollar has grown solely due to geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Had the market paid attention to other factors, the dollar would not have risen by even 200 points.

At the same time, the upward trend in the EUR/USD pair remains valid on both the daily and weekly timeframes. Therefore, we expect only growth in 2026. The second scenario is that peace will not be signed, negotiations will completely fail, and the war will continue. In this case, the euro will find it difficult to continue rising, as demand for the US dollar will increase again. Last week, the market granted the euro a certain degree of trust, reflected in hopes for an end to the war in the Middle East.

If these hopes do not materialize, the market will immediately revert to the situation five days ago. Should we pay attention to the macroeconomic background? It might be worth it, but only by habit. Reports on industrial production and inflation will be published in the Eurozone in their second estimates. Both reports can be considered secondary. We believe that everything will depend on geopolitics.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 11 is 83 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1644 and 1.1810 on Monday. The upper regression channel has turned downward, indicating a trend change to bearish. However, an upward trend may actually resume now. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, signaling a possible near-term downward correction.

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