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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forecast for EUR/USD on November 21, 2023 EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro reached the 2-year descending price channel line and the ...

      
   
  1. #1551
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on November 21, 2023

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the euro reached the 2-year descending price channel line and the target level of 1.0946. This morning, the price is trying to break above this level towards the nearest target at 1.0977. Once the price surpasses this mark, the next target will be 1.1033 (January peak).



    The Marlin oscillator is not in a hurry to rise along with the price, so the risk of a corrective decline increases with each day. Overall, we expect the signal line of the oscillator to be tested at the upper band of the ascending channel.



    On the 4-hour chart, the price is breaking above the resistance of 1.0946 with a desire to consolidate above it. The Marlin oscillator is turning upward, creating a risk of divergence with the price. However, the reversal is not characteristic of a divergence, so the upward movement has the advantage at the moment.

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  2. #1552
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    Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Gold Commodity Asset, Wednesday, November 22 2023



    On the 30 minutes chart of Gold commodity asset, there is the price movement which is above the Kumo, Chikou Span also above the price and Kumo and even though Tenkan Sen and Kinjun Sen above the Kumo, but intersect with the Death Cross, which means although the Gold is in the Bullish condition, but in the near future has the potential to corrected below, where this is also confirmed by the appearance of the hidden deviation between price movement with CCI indicator so that, in the near future Gold has the potential to corrected downward, but if the weakness doesn't exceed under the level 1988,80, then Gold has the potential to be strong again up to the level 2007,07.

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  3. #1553
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on November 22, 2023

    Market trends do not unfold continuously as periodic pullbacks could happen. That is exactly what happened yesterday, despite the extremely weak data on existing home sales in the US, which fell by 4.1%, and has been decreasing for five consecutive months, with a total reduction of 11.9%.

    At the beginning of the year, US home sales declined by 6.0%, but in February, it improved slightly, showing a 13.8% increase. Even so, the cumulative decrease is quite significant, naturally not inspiring any optimism. This should have resulted in dollar weakening, but pound fell instead.

    The Fed's hawkish stance on monetary policy could not be the reason as the meeting took place before the sharp slowdown in inflation became known. Most likely, the movement is a technical rebound, which means that dollar will show its expected decline soon, especially since today, data on durable goods orders will be published. The figure is expected to fall by 2.8%. The potential 5,000 increase in jobless claims may also spark further dollar weakening.



    EUR/USD hit the lower range of the psychological level of 1.0950/1.1000, resulting in a decrease in the volume of long positions. This led to a pullback, which may also be due to the overbought condition of euro.

    Looking at the RSI H4, there is an exit from the overbought area due to the pullback.

    In the daily period, the indicator is moving near the 70 zone.

    As for the Alligator H4 indicator, it ignored the pullback, with the moving MA lines pointing upwards.

    Outlook
    For further decline, traders need to keep the price below 1.0900, as that will spark a complete correction. Alternatively, there could be a decrease in the volume of short positions around the level of 1.0900, treating it as support. In this scenario, there will be another attempt to break the psychological level of 1.1000.

    The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term, medium-term and intraday periods.

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  4. #1554
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on November 23, 2023

    GBP/USD:
    Yesterday, the low was 1.2448, which is approximately the trough since September 7th. In general, the support is not weak, as the price lingered on this mark for five days since September. Now the price could break above the level of 1.2524. If the price stays above this mark, the next target could be 1.2645. The brewing divergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator is losing its strength.



    Now the signal line of the oscillator takes on a wedge shape. We could witness a bullish breakout from the wedge. On the 4-hour chart, the price turned up from the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator has already moved to the bearish territory, so the price may linger a bit before the resistance at 1.2524.



    The UK Manufacturing PMI for November, which will be released today, is forecasted to rise from 44.8 to 45.0. Therefore, the pound has the opportunity to rise, even if it the United States is celebrating a holiday today.

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  5. #1555
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    The XAU/USD pair is showing bearish potential, with a significant support at 1985.14, known as an overlap support. If the price drops further, the 2nd support at 1968.63, a swing low support, may offer a defensive stance.

    On the upside, the 1st resistance at 1996.02 serves as an overlap resistance, and overcoming it could be challenging. Above that, the 2nd resistance at 2006.90, which is a multi-swing high resistance, could cap the upside.

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  6. #1556
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on November 28, 2023

    EUR/USD
    After yesterday's bounce from the support of the green channel line, the price rose above the resistance at 1.0946, closing the day with a white candle. However, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator did not return to its own ascending channel and even strengthened the downward movement.



    There is a risk to continuing the upward movement; the price can turn into a correction at any time. Nevertheless, the main bullish scenario is still valid; Marlin simply annuls the current channel and enters the formation of some other formation. However, in order to confirm the growth, Marlin must still turn upwards. The target level of 1.1033 remains relevant.



    On the 4-hour chart, yesterday, the price tried to attack the support of the MACD indicator line, but failed. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned upward from the zero line. The uptrend may strengthen. We are waiting for the price at the nearest target level. To develop a correction, the price must overcome yesterday's low at 1.0926. The first corrective target will be 1.0905.

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  7. #1557
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    Forecast for USD/JPY on November 29, 2023

    USD/JPY
    The USD/JPY pair has been falling for the fourth day, at an accelerated pace for three days. The pair breached the support at 147.17 (November 21st low) this morning, and it can reach the target of 145.08 (June peak). The Marlin oscillator is also falling at a decent pace, but it is still far from the oversold territory. Even if the pair's downward movement slows down, we expect it to reach the target support.



    U.S. government bonds are rapidly losing yield. The yield on 5-year bonds has fallen from 4.51% to 4.25% since the beginning of the week. Along with this, the dollar is declining against the yen. Simultaneously, there are increasing rumors of the Bank of Japan abandoning its ultra-loose monetary policy soon.



    On the 4-hour chart, there are signs of a brewing convergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator. The main event of the day will be released in the evening the U.S. GDP for the 3rd quarter. Depending on the risk sentiment, the USD/JPY pair will choose a corresponding strategy. Until then, the price may stall under the resistance at 147.17.

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  8. #1558
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    XAU/USD Day I Potential bearish reversal?



    The XAU/USD is currently positioned for a potential bearish reversal, The chart is currently encountering major resistance levels, suggesting a potential bearish reversal.

    The 1st resistance at 2050.34 is identified as a multi-swing high resistance. This implies that it's a significant barrier where selling interest could intensify, potentially triggering a reversal in the XAU/USD (Gold) market.

    The 2nd resistance at 2079.54 is also noted as a swing high resistance, further reinforcing the potential resistance factors for the precious metal.

    On the support side,

    The 1st support at 2005.70 is categorized as a pullback support. This suggests that it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing some support for XAU/USD.

    The 2nd support at 1951.77 is another support level identified as an overlap support. This adds further significance to this support level, indicating it as a potential area where buyers might become active, potentially mitigating the bearish reversal.

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  9. #1559
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    Catherine Mann: The Bank of England may still need to raise rates

    Inflation in the United Kingdom remains consistently high, although it has decreased to 4.6% in the last six months. Recall that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and some of his colleagues promised to reduce inflation to 5% or below by the end of this year. At the moment, we can say that they have managed to keep their promise, but inflation in Britain remains persistently high, with wages growing at 8% annually, and core inflation currently standing at 5.7%.



    Judging by data on price and wage inflation, we can see that the BoE is currently closest to a new interest rate hike. Recently, we have repeatedly heard that the British central bank prefers to keep the rate at its current level for a period long enough to return inflation to 2%. However, such measures may not be sufficient.

    BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said that the prospects of maintaining the current inflation could compel the central bank to tighten monetary policy more than it is doing now. Mann stated that the current BoE policy can be considered "sufficiently restrictive" only for a very short period and exerts relatively weak pressure on price growth. According to her, many companies expect inflationary pressures to persist next year. Accordingly, the BoE may tighten its policy once again.

    This is the factor that can desynchronize the pound and the euro. The European Central Bank has no grounds to raise rates after the latest inflation report. Moreover, it may move to rate cuts in the near future. If we believe Mann's words, the BoE may need another rate hike, and the probability of such a scenario is quite high. This is a supporting factor for the pound but not for the euro.

    In conclusion, I expect both instruments to fall. The BoE has not given any signals of readiness to move from words to action. In the last meeting, only three members of the Committee voted for a rate hike. Therefore, the euro and the pound can safely decline for now.

    Based on the analysis, I conclude that a bearish wave pattern is still being formed. The pair has reached the targets around the 1.0463 mark, and the fact that the pair has yet to breach this level indicates that the market is ready to build a corrective wave. It seems that the market has completed the formation of wave 2 or b, so in the near future I expect an impulsive descending wave 3 or c with a significant decline in the instrument. I still recommend selling with targets below the low of wave 1 or a. But be cautious with short positions, as wave 2 or b may take a more extended form. A successful attempt to break the 1.0851 level could signal a decline in the instrument.



    The wave pattern for the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downtrend. The most that we can count on is a correction. At this time, I can recommend selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2068 mark because wave 2 or b will eventually end and at any time. The longer it takes, the stronger the fall. The narrowing triangle is a harbinger to the end of the movement.

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  10. #1560
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    AUD/USD Update for December 04, 2023 - Berish divergence on the oscillator

    Technical analysis:



    AUD/USD has been trading downside this morning and I found rejection of the previous swing high at 0.6680, which is good sign for the further downside movement.

    Due to the rejection of the previous swing high and the bearish divergence on the RSI oscillator, I see potential for the further drop towards lower references.

    Downside objectives are set at the price of 0.6570 and 0.6524

    RSI oscillator is showing fresh bearish divergence in the background, which is sign for the downside rotation.

    Key resistance is set at the price of 0.6680

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