Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 08, 2019



When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian Industrial Production m/m, French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q, French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q, and French Industrial Production m/m. The US will not publish any economic data today, so amid such conditions, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1396.

Strong Resistance: 1.1389.

Original Resistance: 1.1378.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1367.

Target Inner Area: 1.1340.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1313.

Original Support: 1.1302.

Strong Support: 1.1291.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1284.

(Disclaimer) *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Forecast for USD/JPY on February 11, 2019

The yen continues to build up strength before breaking out on the resistance of the Krusenstern line daily scale. The price is held by the balance line on the chart of the smaller period-H4. The Marlin line seeks to go out into the growth zone. On the daily chart, the line of this oscillator unfolds in the continuation of growth. The price exit over 110.04 - resistance of the Krusenstern line, will make it possible for the price to attack the Krusenstern line of the higher chart and rise to 110.36 - the resistance of the trend line of the price channel on the daily. Exit above this line opens the way to the resistance of the next line at 111.24.





*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 12, 2019



When the European market opens, no economic data will be released. The US will publish the economic data such as JOLTS Job Openings and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1331.
Strong Resistance: 1.1325.
Original Resistance: 1.1314.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1303.
Target Inner Area: 1.1277.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1251.
Original Support: 1.1240.
Strong Support: 1.1229.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1223.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EUR/AUD Approaching Support, Prepare For Bounce



EUR/AUD is approaching its support at 1.5888 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 1.5972 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is nearing its support at 2.4% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

EUR/AUD is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 1.5888. Stop loss at 1.5845. Take profit at 1.5972.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EURUSD: US inflation unchanged. Eurozone continues to slide into recession

The euro fell slightly after data showed that industrial production in the euro zone declined more than expected in December. However, buyers immediately activated in the area of important support levels and did not allow a larger downward movement to be formed.

According to the report, industrial production in the eurozone in December 2018 declined immediately by 0.9% compared with November, while the interviewed economists expected a reduction of 0.3% only. Such weak indicators once again confirm the fact of more than a serious slowdown in the economy at the past and at the beginning of this year.

In the afternoon, there was data on inflation in the United States. Despite the weak report, the US dollar regained some of the positions that was lost yesterday which was paired with the euro.

According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, consumer prices in the United States in January 2019 remained unchanged in comparison with the previous month, while economists had expected an increase of 0.1%. The base consumer price index, which does not take into account volatile categories, including energy, rose by 0.2% compared with December. Economists had expected the base index to rise by 0.2% in January as well. As compared with the same period of the previous year, prices rose by 1.6% in January, yet it is not enough for the Federal Reserve's target level. Base prices, on the other hand, rose by 2.2% compared with January 2018.



The British pound fell immediately after data released indicating that the rate of consumer price inflation in the UK slowed down and was beneath the target level set by the Bank of England.

The main reason for such a sharp decrease was the fall in energy prices at the end of last year.

According to the data, the consumer price index CPI UK in January 2019 increased by 1.8% compared with January 2017 and an increase of 2.1% back in December. The basic level of the Bank of England is around 2%.

The base index, which excludes volatile categories, but includes food, tobacco products, and energy, rose 1.9% in January, as well as in December.

Bear in mind that quite recently, the Bank of England announced that they were not refusing further increases in interest rates. However, given these indicators, it is unlikely that anyone will hurry to tighten monetary policy unnecessarily in the future, which may weaken the position of the British pound, and which will be eliminated under pressure due to the uncertain Brexit scenario and slowdown in the British economy.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD pair, yesterday's upward correction, which was observed in the second half of the day, may continue today. However, this requires breaking through the important resistance levels of 1.2920 and 1.2980.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 15, 2019

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will



When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Trade Balance and Italian Trade Balance. The US will also publish the economic data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Import Prices m/m, and Empire State Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1346.
Strong Resistance: 1.1340.
Original Resistance: 1.1329.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1318.
Target Inner Area: 1.1292.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1266.
Original Support: 1.1255.
Strong Support: 1.1244.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1238.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 18, 2019



Today, when the European and the US markets open, no economic data will be released. So amid this condition, the EUR/USD pair will probably move with a low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1346.
Strong Resistance: 1.1340.
Original Resistance: 1.1329.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1318.
Target Inner Area: 1.1292.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1266.
Original Support: 1.1255.
Strong Support: 1.1244.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1238.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Brent: appetite grows while eating

Growth of the global risk appetite against the background of the de-escalation of the US-Chinese trade conflict has made it possible for oil to climb to the area of three-month highs. Black gold is growing along with global stock indexes in the hope that the end of the trade war will increase global demand. Although OPEC has reduced its growth forecast for this indicator to 1.24 million b/d for 2019, investors believe that the recovery of the economies of the eurozone and China will provide an opportunity for it to expand faster. If we add to this the effectiveness of operations to reduce the cartel's production as well as other producing countries by 1.2 million b/d, it becomes clear why Riyadh allows itself to make loud statements that the allies managed to bring the market to a normal state.

Leaders bear the greatest burden. Saudi Arabia plans to reduce production to 9.8 million b/d in March, which is 500 thousand b/d more than the country's commitments. Its exports have already declined by 1.3 million b/d in the first half of February. With OPEC's fall in production to 30.81 million b/d in January, the strengthening factor of global risk appetite made it possible for Brent and WTI to play a fifth of their value since the beginning of the year.

Dynamics of oil and OPEC production



Finally, financial managers who previously preferred to take a wait-and-see position actually waited. By the end of the week, by February 12, they had increased their longs in the North Sea variety by 10%, which is the fastest growth rate since August. Shorts reduced by 5.5%. Thus, speculators have become net buyers of Brent at 32 million barrels in equivalent.

The weakness of the US dollar played a significant role in the rise of oil to three-month highs. Fans of the USD index have been helped for a long time by the desire of central bank competitors of the Fed to adhere to ultra-soft monetary policy, but the progress in Washington and Beijing talks reduced the demand for safe-haven assets, causing a serious blow to the US currency. At the same time, HSBC Holdings warns that if something goes wrong in further negotiations between Washington and Beijing, then black gold will plunge into a wave of sales.

Indeed, the rise in prices allows American manufacturers to feel at ease. The number of rigs from Baker Hughes rose to 857 in the week to February 15, and the US Energy Information Administration predicts that production in 2020 will reach a record figure of 13 million b/d. Companies registered in the United States are used to hedge risks and the growth of Brent and WTI allows them to increase production even at unprofitable price levels. Sooner or later this circumstance will be felt, however, during at time when the market is in a state of euphoria because of the expectations of the end of the trade war.

Technically, the breakthrough of resistance at $64.1 per barrel brought the bulls on Brent to an operational space. They were able to develop a correction as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern to 5-0 and are ready to push futures quotes to the level of 50% of the CD wave. It corresponds to $68.4. Brent daily chart



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EUR/USD. What will the minutes of the Fed reveal?

The minutes of the January Federal Reserve meeting will be published tonight - the so-called "minutes". The results of the regulator's first meeting this year were disappointing for the US dollar. The Fed finally confirmed its policy of slowing down the tightening of monetary policy. In the text of the accompanying statement, as well as during the speech of the Fed chairman, the word "patience" was often mentioned, therefore the market does not expect any "hawkish" notes from the minutes.

A certain intrigue of today's release remains. The market will first of all evaluate - how monolithic the decision to slow down the rate of rate increase looks. If the number of "doves" will significantly exceed the "hawkish" wing, then the dollar will again be under additional pressure. Yesterday's comments by Loretta Mester (which, by the way, has no voting rights this year) have weakened the greenback throughout the market. This suggests that dollar bulls are still sensitive to the soft statements of members of the Federal Reserve, even though the other central banks of the leading countries of the world have also taken a "defense position". The monetary policy outlook of the Fed is gradually coming to the forefront against the background of the expected breakthrough in the US-China trade negotiations. If Beijing and Washington find a common denominator this week and make a deal before March 1 (or announce it by extending the deadline for additional approvals), the dollar will lose a significant trump card for its growth.



Under these circumstances, the Fed may either increase pressure on the greenback, or become a "saving straw", especially against the background of softening the rhetoric of the ECB and other central banks. It is worth noting that the Fed's report, which will be published today, might provide unexpected support for the US currency. The fact is that the market expects too soft rhetoric from the members of the regulator. If the minutes demonstrates some disagreement within the Committee, the market reaction may disappoint EUR/USD bulls. In my opinion, the dollar can collapse throughout the market only if the regulator hints at a possible pause until the end of this year. And although this option is unlikely, it cannot be ruled out, given the recent speeches of Fed members.

This is not just about Loretta Mester, who was mentioned above. Today, her position was repeated by one of the most influential members of the regulator - the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams. Moreover, he stated that he did not see the need to raise the rates - only if circumstances of a "shocking" nature emerge. In his opinion, the rate has already reached its neutral level - at least the lower limit of this range.

This rhetoric is very consonant with the position of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who at the end of last year designated the neutral level range of 2.5% -3.5%, while declaring that the monetary tightening cycle was gradually coming to an end. This year, the US regulator can more clearly articulate its idea: the rate has reached a neutral level, then the Fed will act according to circumstances, responding to incoming data. Although these findings have long been floating in the air, their "fixation" will provoke strong volatility in the market, and this volatility will not be in favor of the dollar. By the way, Williams in today's speech added that the Fed will continue to reduce the volume of the bond portfolio on the balance sheet - according to his estimates, the reduction process may end when the balance drops to one trillion dollars.

In general, the dynamics of today's trading confirms the fears of investors: the euro/dollar pair froze in a flat, especially against the background of a half-empty economic calendar. Here it is worth recalling that, in addition to the publication of the Fed minutes, the results of the meeting between the British prime minister and the head of the European Commission will be announced. If, despite all the circumstances, they will be able to move the situation from a dead point, the single currency will receive a strong enough support, which will undoubtedly affect the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair.

Thus, the events of today's evening can either lead the pair to the borders of the 14th figure (with an attempt to test), or return to the area of the 12th figure). Fundamental factors are too unpredictable, so it is almost impossible to talk about the probability of the implementation of a particular scenario.



From a technical point of view, it is important for EUR/USD bulls to stay above 1,1305 (Tenkan-sen line) in order for it to not lose the potential for growth and approach the next resistance level of 1,1390 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). Bears of the pair, in turn, need to consolidate below 1.1270 – in this case, the Ichimoku indicator will form a bearish "Parade of lines" signal, and the price itself will be between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EUR/USD: Weak data on the eurozone will not allow the euro to continue its growth. The minutes of the ECB

Data on Germany continue to upset investors, creating some pressure on risky assets, including the euro, which also fell against the US dollar in the first half of the day after the release of weak reports on the eurozone economy.

According to the data, the final consumer price index CPI of Germany in January this year fell by 0.8% compared to December 2018. Compared to January 2018, the index grew by 1.4%. However, the euro fell only slightly against the US dollar at the beginning of the European session, as the data completely coincided with the forecasts of economists.

A more significant pressure on the EURUSD pair was exerted by the report, which indicated that the preliminary index of PMI supply managers for the German manufacturing sector in February remained below 50 points, indicating a decrease in activity, and amounted to 47.6 points, while it was projected at 49.9 points. Back in January, the above index was 49.7 points.

This has had a significant impact on the overall performance of the eurozone manufacturing sector. According to the results of surveys of supply managers, the production index of the eurozone fell below 50 points and amounted to 49.2 points in February, indicating a decline in activity.

Only good preliminary indicators in the service sector, both in Germany and in the eurozone as a whole, have managed to smooth the pressure on the euro.

According to the report, the preliminary index of PMI supply managers for the German service sector in February was 55.1 points against 49.7 points in January. Economists had forecast PMI services Germany at the level of 52.9 points.

In the eurozone as a whole, according to IHS Markit, the composite index of supply managers, which consists of an indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector, rose to 51.4 points in February from 51.0 points in January.



Today, the minutes were published from the January meeting of the European Central Bank, which confirmed the concerns of traders that the regulator may start the LTRO program, which will be aimed at long-term refinancing of the banking system.

The minutes indicate that the leaders of the ECB at the January meeting discussed new long-term loans for banks, but more accurately everything will be known at the March meeting, when the ECB will revise economic forecasts. The European regulator is confident that potential new lending operations should reflect the objectives of monetary policy in general.

There were also concerns related to negative factors for the economy, which are only temporary in nature. Special attention was paid to the risks in connection with the exacerbated situation around Brexit.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.