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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Is gold going higher and higher and higher? After many years of waiting, the hopes of investors who invest in ...

          
   
  1. #461
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Is gold going higher and higher and higher?

    After many years of waiting, the hopes of investors who invest in gold were finally rewarded, as gold showed an impressive trend in the first half of 2019, which was caused by several reasons. Is it worth it to invest money in gold now and is it time to take profits to those who bought gold from the levels of $1,300, we will analyze in this article.

    If we consider gold from the point of view of distant investment horizons, then investors should have no questions at all. Regardless of the behavior of gold in the derivatives market, it should be in the portfolio of each investor in a volume of up to 20% or more if the portfolio is denominated in reserve currencies. Even if gold falls short in price in the short term, it should be taken as the foundation of a house: you don't want to bury money in the ground, but you have to, because you need to build a house on stone and not on sand. Moreover, in the long run, gold is the most profitable asset in any currency.

    Since 2001, gold has increased by five times in price against the dollar. The price of gold was $287 per troy ounce on September 11, 2001 but now gold is worth $1,415. Over the same period, investments in S&P 500 stocks, inflated from free money in the last ten years, have brought a yield of "just" 2.8 times the return - it was 1,050, it was 3,000. No one argues, 285% is good, but you have to agree that 500% is better, and if you take 2008-2009, then there were no questions at all as to where money should be invested - in gold or shares.



    It seems to me that the best investment in order to save money for retirement or the education of children will be an investment in gold coins. Yes, there are periods of recession, but long-term gold is a very stable and profitable asset. Over a period of 20 years, gold gives an annual increase of 8% on invested capital.

    Of course, it's easy to talk about a distance of two decades, it's more difficult to figure out shorter periods, but we'll try. If we talk about the current time, then, according to the World Gold Council, now the following factors influence the situation:

    Financial market uncertainty and adaptive monetary policies are likely to support investment demand for gold; Price momentum and positioning can stimulate rallies and create kickbacks, as investors constantly revise their expectations based on new information; Weaker economic growth in the near term could soften consumer demand for gold, but structural economic reforms in India and China are likely to support long-term demand.

    Regarding monetary policy easing, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Open Market Committee now occupy a balanced policy and would rather prefer not to lower the rate at the next meeting, which will be held in late June. However, markets literally force the Fed to do this, suggesting a 100 percent likelihood of such a move. As the analysis conducted by the World Gold Council shows, the US Federal Open Market Committee conducted a rate change whenever more than 65% of traders expected such a move from it (Fig. 1).



    Figure 1: Changes in the Fed's monetary policy in line with market expectations. Source: World Gold Council

    Despite good inflation data (core inflation rose to 2.1% in June) and excellent unemployment data, the Fed is unlikely to decide to go against the will of the markets and leave the rate unchanged. In turn, the rate reduction is negative for the US dollar, which will lose 0.25% of potential, which is very likely to lead to a decrease in the dollar against a basket of major reserve currencies. At the same time, the US dollar has a 90 percent negative correlation with the US dollar. Earlier, in 2010 - 2015, gold significantly correlated with the yen, but later began to correlate with the euro and the dollar, in turn, the correlation with the yen had decreased.

    Speaking about the factors that highly affect the price of gold, it is necessary to note the demand of exchange-traded funds - ETF - and the positioning of Money Manager speculators in the futures market. They are the main buyers of gold, and it is the influx of money to the derivatives market that determines the medium and short-term price dynamics. By volume, the COMEX-CME conglomerate is the largest exchange for trading gold and its derivatives, followed by London and Shanghai.

    From June 1, Open Interest, which characterizes the influx of new money into the market, grew by more than a quarter and for the first time in history exceeded the level of 1 million contracts. However, in July, the process slowed down somewhat and has stabilized at this point. Some traders preferred to take profits, which resulted in a slight decrease in OI to 1.01 million. Speculators, after the explosive growth of May-June, also slightly reduced their long positions, which currently amount to 241 thousand contracts. At the same time, short positions of speculators remain at the lowest values of 24.3 thousand contracts (Fig. 2), which does not indicate their desire to sell gold against its trend. Therefore, wishing to open a short position in gold should not be smarter than the market. Traders need to be with the market, and if you call yourself a speculator, then you must act together with the Money Manager, and not against them.



    Fig.2: Position of traders in the COT report. Source Commodity Futures Commission - CFTC

    Based on the above factors, as well as technical analysis, it can be assumed that the range of 1380-1435, formed by the price of gold in the previous three weeks, is more likely a continuation figure than a reversal figure. In this case, in the event of growth, gold has every change to reach the level of $1500 and continue further upward movement.

    However, if the Fed does not lower the rate, which is now highly unlikely, or Jerome Powell's comments on future monetary policy prospects will lead to an increase in the US dollar, there is some small chance that gold could fall to $1,375-$1,350. In this case, traders should remember that "Murphy's Law" says that if trouble can happen, it will happen, it will be realized on the markets with an enviable constancy. In this regard, no need to make exceptions to the rules of money management and open positions that you can not afford to lose.

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  2. #462
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    EUR/USD: potential decline to 1.1170 and a "powder keg" for dollar bulls

    Bears of the EUR/USD pair managed to overcome the support level of 1.1230, which corresponded to the Kumo cloud boundaries on the daily chart, and then headed towards the 11th figure - or more precisely, to the next support level of 1.1170 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1). The overall market situation is unequivocally negative for the euro and fairly neutral for the dollar. However, today the US currency received support from retail sales in the US, while the single currency received another blow from the German statistics.



    Thus, the euro was pressured by figures from the ZEW Institute. In particular, the sentiment index in the business environment of Germany dropped immediately to the level of -24.5 points - this is the most negative result since last November. Analysts expected a negative trend, but, according to their forecasts, the indicator should have dropped to -22.7 points. In Europe as a whole, this indicator also remained at semi-annual lows, having stood at -20.3 points. At the same level, the indicator was released last month. After the surge of optimism in April, when for the first time in 2 years, both in Germany and in the EU as a whole, they were above zero, this dynamic looks depressing, and this fact had a corresponding impact on the single currency. Judging by the rhetoric of members of the ECB, the central bank is ready to use its whole arsenal of available actions in the fall. In particular, we are talking about the bond purchasing program and reducing the interest rate. Not so long ago, the head of the ECB acknowledged that many of the early indicators warn of a worsening situation in the eurozone, so the risks for forecasts remain downward.

    By the way, tomorrow's data on the growth of European inflation may put additional pressure on the euro if they are revised downward. We will know the final data for June. According to initial estimates, the overall consumer price index rose to 1.2%, while the core index rose to 1.1%. According to the general opinion of experts, core inflation will be subject to revision - the indicator can be reduced to 1%. In this case, bears of the EUR/USD pair will have another reason to sell the single currency, and the price will certainly be consolidated within the 11th figure.

    Moreover, the greenback's growth is fueled by fairly good statistics from the United States. Today, dollar bulls have pleased retail sales. Contrary to negative forecasts, indicators of consumer activity have not decreased, but in fact remained at the level of the previous period. The overall figure, as well as the figure excluding car sales, grew in June by 0.4% (with a decline forecast to 0.1%). Excluding auto and fuel sales, the indicator has been growing for the second month in a row, reaching 0.7%. Against the background of the growth of key macroeconomic indicators (strong Nonfarm and positive dynamics of inflation), these figures have provided significant support to the dollar. I note that Jerome Powell, in the course of his speeches and without this release, stated the intensification of consumer activity. He associated the main risks for the Fed with other factors (first of all, we are talking about geopolitical risks and reducing the volume of business investments).

    Nevertheless, today's release made it possible for dollar bulls to once again show character - in almost all pairs, the greenback strengthened their positions, and the EUR/USD pair was no exception. In general, the dollar is gradually gaining momentum throughout the market, and either Powell or Trump can hinder this process. Here it is necessary to emphasize the fact that the Fed's July interest rate cut is largely taken into account in prices, so any reminder about this on the part of the US central bank's members is quite calmly perceived by the market. Dollar bulls fear only aggressive rates of monetary policy easing - for example, a one-time cut in the rate by 50 basis points or the beginning of a decline cycle. The "precautionary" rate cut of 0.25% was largely played by the market, especially after the Fed head's dovish speech in Congress, during which he actually announced the relevant intentions of the regulator.



    In my opinion, the greatest danger to the dollar is not the Fed, but Donald Trump, who repeatedly expressed outrage at the overvalued exchange rate of the national currency. According to Bloomberg, the US president has already instructed his advisers to develop a strategy to weaken the dollar. According to insider sources, Larry Kudlow, the chief economic adviser to the president, and Stephen Mnuchin, the minister of finance, opposed any US intervention to weaken the greenback. But according to Trump, an overly expensive dollar is almost the key obstacle to a country's economic growth. In turn, economic growth, according to the head of the White House, should provide him with a second presidential term. Here it is worth noting that the overwhelming majority of opinion polls are giving a definite advantage to former Vice-President Joe Biden. Even the Fox News channel, which clearly sympathizes with Trump, acknowledged this fact. According to their polls, Trump is almost 10% behind Biden.

    Thus, good news for dollar bulls is that the greenback has acquired "immunity" regarding the Fed's stated intentions to cut the rate by 25 points (and more aggressive measures are unlikely to be applied). In addition, US statistics also provide background support for the dollar. The bad news is that Trump may initiate currency interventions, especially if the US currency continues to rise in price across the entire market. Taking into account such (possible) perspectives, dollar bulls sit on a "powder keg", which can jerk at any moment.

    From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair has the potential to fall to the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to the mark of 1.1170. If the bears overcome this support level (which is unlikely within the next few days), the pair will head to the bottom of the 11th figure, that is, to the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart.

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  3. #463
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    AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 18, 2019. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

    Minuette (H4)
    Let us consider the comprehensive options for the development of the AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX movement from July 18, 2019 in the Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame). ____________________
    US Dollar Index
    On July 18, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :
    - resistance level of 97.50 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);
    - support level of 97.20 (1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operating scale).

    The breakdown of the support level of 97.20 (1/2 Median Line Minuette) will cause the downward movement of the dollar index to continue to the targets - the initial SSL line (97.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (96.90) of the Minuette operational scale - local minimum 96.75 - and as an option - to reach the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (96.20).

    In case of the breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 97.50), the development of the #USDX movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (97.50 - 97.63 - 97.80) of the Minuette operational scale, and if ISL61.8 Minuette (97.80) will be broken down, then it would be important to continue the upward movement of the dollar index to the final Schiff Line Minuette (98.00), with the prospect of reaching the final FSL Minuette line (98.35).

    The details of the options for movement #USDX on July 18, 2019 are presented at the animated graphics.



    Australian dollar vs US dollar
    The development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD from July 18, 2019 will be determined by the working out and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel borders (0.7000 - 0.7015 - 0.7040) of the Minuette operating scale.

    The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 0.7040) will determine the development of the AUD / USD movement in the equilibrium zone (0.7040 - 0.7060 - 0.7085) of the Minuette operating scale with the prospect of reaching the final Schiff Line Minuette (0.7100).

    In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel ( support level of 0.7000), the operational scale of the Minuette operational scale fork will become topical for the Australian dollar to reach the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6985 - 0.6965 - 0.6940) of the Minute operating scale with the possibility of updating the minimum of 0.6912.

    The details of the options for the movement of AUD / USD from July 18, 2019 can be seen at the animated graphics.



    New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar The development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD from July 18, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :
    - resistance level of 0.6725 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);
    - support level of 0.6710

    The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6725 (ISL38.2 Minuette) will confirm the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar in the equilibrium zone (0.6725 - 0.6755 - 0.6785) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the possibility of reaching the final FSL line (0.6845) of the Minuette operational scale.

    On the other hand, in the event of the breakdown of the support level of 0.6710, the movement of the NZD / USD will continue to the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6710 - 0.6688 - 0.6666) Minuette operational scale fork with the possibility of the continuation of this movement (after the breakdown of the support level of 0.6666) is already in the zone of equilibrium (0.6688 - 0.6640 - 0.6595) Minuette operational scale fork.

    The details of the options for the movement of NZD / USD from July 18, 2019 are presented at the animated graphics.



    US Dollar vs Canadian dollar.
    Range Breakdown Direction :
    - resistance level of 1.3085 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale);
    - support level of 1.3050 (boundary of the red zone of the Minuette operational scale fork); will begin to determine the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD from July 18, 2019.

    After the support level of 1.3050 breaks down at the boundary of the Minuette operational scale fork, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar will continue to the goals - local minimum 1.3017 - control line LTL (1.2985) of the Minuette operational scale - warning line LWL38.2 (1.2915) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

    As a result of the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3085, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.3085 - 1.3115 - 1.3140), and during the breakdown of the upper boundary (1.3140) of this channel, it will be possible to reach the boundaries of the equilibrium zone of USD / CAD (1.3165 - 1.3215 - 1.3260) Minuette operating scale.

    The details of the options for the movement of USD / CAD from July 18, 2019 can be seen at the animated graphics.



    The review was compiled without regard to the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders " sell " or " buy ").

    The formula for calculating the dollar index is
    USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

    where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:
    Euro - 57.6%;
    Yen - 13.6%;
    Pound sterling - 11.9%;
    Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
    Swedish krona - 4.2%;
    Swiss franc - 3.6%.

    The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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  4. #464
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forecast for USD / JPY pair on July 22, 2019

    USD / JPY pair
    The technical picture of our last review (July 18) was fully realized. The price worked out the range 107.35 / 87 indicated with a gray rectangle on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the same scale has once again touched the generator line of convergence. This creates a double convergence, after which it returned above the signal level 107.87.



    On the daily chart, the departure of the signal line is under the border with the territory of decline. Also, according to our forecast, it turned out to be false. At the moment, Marlin's daily is already in the growth zone. The price is higher than the indicator line of balance, which indicates a shift in the price balance to the upside over the past 90 days based on the calculations by the indicator. Its immediate goal is the area of the MACD line and the price channel line of 108.70. The price yield above the resistance opens up the prospect of growth to the upper line of the channel at 109.70.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  5. #465
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    Forecast for AUD / USD pair on July 23, 2019

    AUD / USD pair
    The Australian dollar is falling for the third day. we decided to update the price channels: the dark blue channel of the daily scale chart and the red channel of weekly. The convergence of the daily timeframe proved to be effective and the Marlin oscillator signal line clearly intends to move to the zone of decline. The immediate goal of the "Australian" is 0.6945, which averaged estimate of support for the price channel line and the MACD indicator line.



    On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line after convergence is already in the zone of decline. The price went below the balance line and MACD this morning. We are waiting for the price in the area of the specified goal at 0.6945.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  6. #466
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    False start: EUR/USD pair slumped to 1.1150 amid dovish rumors about ECB intentions

    Against the background of an empty calendar, the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly demonstrated a downward impulse, testing support for 1.1150 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). By and large, traders today started "ahead of schedule" to recoup the hypothetical results of the ECB July meeting, which will be held on Thursday.



    First of all, it is worth noting that, reacting so violently to dovish rumors, the EUR/USD bears drive themselves into a trap of high expectations: if the European regulator does not justify bearish hopes, the pair can shoot back, as has repeatedly happened in similar situations. In any case, today's decline should be treated with caution, given the informational unreliability of fundamental factors. Obviously, at the moment, EUR/USD traders follow the principles of "sell on rumors, buy on facts". So far, investors are selling the pair at a heightened pace, but if the rumors spread do not materialize on July 25, the pair will be just as actively bought.

    By and large, the single currency became a victim only of the assumption that the European Central Bank will soften the parameters of monetary policy at the next meeting, that is, the day after tomorrow. Such rumors appeared following the monthly report of the Bundesbank published yesterday and the updated forecast of the International Monetary Fund published today. The essence of the published documents is that the economic situation will only worsen in the foreseeable future and, therefore, the leading central banks of the world should prepare for appropriate response actions.

    Thus, according to the information of the German central bank, the German industry showed a decline in the second quarter of this year (continuing the negative trend of the first quarter), while the high probability of a hard Brexit slows down the export sector of the country, which was already under pressure from global trade conflicts. According to monthly data, the volume of industrial production in Germany (seasonally adjusted) rose by only 0.3% in May, while the estimate for April was revised downward to -2%. In annual terms, the volume of industrial production in Germany declined by 3.7% at once. In general, leading indicators, including the volume of production orders, suggest that the German economy in the second quarter will demonstrate a dismal result, especially against the background of growth at the beginning of the year. After the publication of this report, some experts suggested that this document will affect the decisiveness of ECB members regarding the launch of new incentives and further easing of monetary policy.



    Today's IMF report also added fuel to the fire. For the fourth time in a row, the Fund's analysts lowered forecasts for global GDP growth - this time the figure was revised from 3.3% to 3.2%. In addition, in the July review of the world economy, the IMF estimated the prospects for economic growth in some countries of the world. In particular, the forecast for the current year was slightly reduced for Germany (which is consistent with the findings of the Bundesbank), but remained unchanged for France and Italy. The growth forecast for the Chinese economy in 2019-2020 was reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2% and 6%, respectively. It is noteworthy that the forecast for the growth of the American economy was revised by IMF economists upward (by 2019) by 0.3%, that is, to 2.6%. This factor served as an additional factor supporting the dollar amid falling fears about the "too dovish" actions of the Fed at the July meeting.

    But regarding the possible actions of the ECB for EUR/USD traders, the opposite opinion is completely different. So, according to some analysts polled by Bloomberg, the European regulator can divide the monetary policy easing process into two phases, lowering the interest rate at the July meeting further into the negative area, and resuming the quantitative easing program at the September meeting. According to other analysts (of which the majority), Mario Draghi at the July meeting only announces a large-scale softening of the parameters of monetary policy, but he will start taking real steps in the autumn, before his resignation.

    In my opinion, the regulator will not be in a hurry with its actions in July, and the market is now "in advance" playing out the dovish intentions of the ECB. In addition, the EUR/USD pair is also falling due to the growth of the dollar index. The US currency is growing on market confidence that the Fed will limit itself to a "warning shot" in the form of a one-time rate cut of 25 basis points. This fact has already been taken into account in the prices since the moment Jerome Powell spoke in Congress. The vast majority of the Fed members who spoke last week before the unofficial "silence regime" (10 days before the Fed meeting) made it clear that the regulator does not intend to take the path of aggressive rate cuts - after the July decline, the Fed is more likely to take a wait-and-see position. Naturally, this fact will not please the White House - but so far traders are guided only by the declared intentions of the US central bank, and not by Trump's hypothetical plans to devalue the national currency. Therefore, the dollar is growing "on all fronts" today, reinforcing the EUR/USD pair's downward trend.



    At the time of this writing, the euro-dollar pair was unable to overcome the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (1.1150) due to the attenuation of the downward impulse. If in the near future, bears of the pair do not receive additional support from the information field (which is unlikely), the pair will continue to drift in the price range of 1.1150-1.12230 (where 1.1230 is the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud at D1), until the ECB meeting on which Mario Draghi will dot the i.

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  7. #467
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Control zones AUDUSD 07.25.19

    Today's trading plan should take into account the approach of the pair to the average value of the weekly move. Sellers need to close a short position and expect a corrective pullback. The test of the average move can allow to obtain favorable prices for the purchase of an instrument in the case of the formation of a "false breakdown" pattern of yesterday's minimum.



    The probability of closing trades within the average move is 70%, so sales near the zone are not profitable. It is necessary to take into account that the descending model remains a priority, as the weekly CZ of 0.6946-0.6933 has not yet been reached. An alternative model will be to go beyond the average weekly turn for the test of the specified zone. This will allow to get favorable prices for the purchase of a tool, since the probability of returning to the middle course is 90%.



    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year. Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year. Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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  8. #468
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    #USDX vs GBP / USD H4 vs EUR / USD H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 26, 2019. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

    Let us consider the comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement of currency instruments #USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD from July 26, 2019.

    Minuette (H4)
    ____________________

    US dollar Index

    The movement of the dollar index #USDX from July 26, 2019 will result depending on the direction of the range breakdown :
    resistance level of 97.75 (starting line SSL for the Minuette operating scale fork);
    support level of 97.55 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette)

    The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette (support level of 97.55) will determine the development of the #USDX movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette (97.55 - 97.45 - 97.35), and during the breakdown of the lower boundary (97.35) of this channel, the downward movement of the US dollar index can be extended to the median line (97.25) of the Minuette operating scale forks and the equilibrium zone (97.21 - 97.05 - 96.88) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    On the other hand, in case of breakdown of the resistance level of 97.75 on the SSL start line, the Minuette operational scale forks will be followed by updating the local maximum 97.82. After that, the upward movement of #USDX can continue to the targets - the UTL Minuette control line (97.95) - the UWL61.8 Minuette warning line (98.10).

    The details of the #USDX movement are shown in the animated graphics.



    ____________________
    Euro vs US dollar

    Similarly in the case of the dollar index, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from July 26, 2019 will be due to the direction of the range breakdown :

    resistance level of 1.1160 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork);
    support level of 1.1121 (starting line SSL for the Minuette operating scale).

    The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1160 will make it possible to develop the movement of the single European currency within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1160 - 1.1170 - 1.1180) and the equilibrium zone (1.1185 - 1.1205 - 1.1222) of the Minuette operating scale.

    In the case of confirmation of the breakdown of the initial SSL line (1.1121) of the Minuette operating scale fork, the downward movement of EUR / USD can be continued towards the targets - minimum 1.1107 - warning line UWL38.2 (1.1052) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

    The details of the movement options for this pair are presented in the graph.



    ___________________
    Great Britain pound vs US dollar

    Meanwhile, the development of the movement of Her Majesty's Currency GBP / USD from July 26, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2530 - 1.2500 - 1.2460) of the Minuette operational scale. The movement options within this channel are shown in the animated graphic.

    If the resistance level of 1.2530 is broken down at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette, the upward movement of GBP / USD can be continued to the targets - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.2615) and the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork -the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.2620) is the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.2645) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

    The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette operational scale (support level of 1.2460) will determine the further development of the movement of the single European currency in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2460 - 1.2405 - 1.2350) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

    The details of the GBP / USD movement are presented in the animated graphics.



    ____________________
    The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. In addition, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

    The formula for calculating the dollar index is:
    USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

    where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:
    Euro - 57.6% ;
    Yen - 13.6%;
    Pound sterling - 11.9% ;
    Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
    Swedish krona - 4.2%;
    Swiss franc - 3.6%.

    The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
    Best regards, PR Manager
    Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

  9. #469
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    Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, July 29, 2019



    In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y and the US will not publish any economic data today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

    Resistance.3 : 109.03.

    Resistance. 2: 108.82.

    Resistance. 1: 108.61.

    Support. 1: 107.34.

    Support. 2: 107.13.

    Support. 3: 107.92.

    (Disclaimer) *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  10. #470
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Control zones for Bitcoin on 07/30/19

    Yesterday, Bitcoin has dropped to $ 9000. This allowed us to re-test the monthly minimum. The response to the test was an increase in demand. This makes it possible to indicate that there are limit buyers within the monthly minimum. While levels from 9000 and above are saturated with buyers, a further decrease remains unlikely. Thus, the likelihood of continued movement within the medium-term flat increases.



    It is also important to note that Bitcoin went beyond the monthly control zone. This makes it possible to search for purchases in the direction of return, since the probability of return is 90%.

    When building a trading plan, it is important to note that throughout the past week, the pair has been trading below the level of balance. Today, the situation is similar, so the movement towards yesterday's high will be decisive. If the price is kept below the balance, the probability of updating the monthly minimum will be more than 50%. To break the downward impulse, it will be necessary to consolidate above the balance mark



    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
    Best regards, PR Manager
    Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

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