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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 30, 2021 EUR/USD The euro slipped by 29 points yesterday, blocking ...

      
   
  1. #891
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 30, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro slipped by 29 points yesterday, blocking Friday's gains, a sign of the price's sentiment to continue moving down against the pressure of the double convergence with the Marlin oscillator.



    But the question of yesterday's event has not yet been resolved - will the price stop in the struggle against convergence at the 1.1745 level, or will it continue to decline to the 1.1688-1.1700 range? There is a third option - the collapse of convergence and the price falling even deeper (after all, double convergence has not yet been fully formed), and there are fundamental prerequisites for this. Yesterday, investment ideas that have become traditional in the last month appeared in the media on the difference in the speed of recovery of the US and European economies.



    The Marlin oscillator approached the border of the growth area on the four-hour chart and is most likely to turn down from it. The oscillator's exit into the zone of positive values in this short-term situation does not carry a high level of information, it may also be a reaction to the way that the price will continue to consolidate sideways or on either side, not above the MACD line, which coincides with the target level of 1.1810.

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  2. #892
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 31, 2021

    AUD/USD Yesterday, the Australian dollar broke through the signal level of 0.7641 with its upper shadow and closed the day with a decline of 37 points. The Marlin oscillator has been repeating its price movements for the last five days, unfortunately losing its leading main function. Nevertheless, it still has a large margin to decline before entering the oversold zone. We have a downward trend on the daily chart and the targets are set at 0.7565 and 0.7500.



    The price consolidated under the indicator's red balance line and the MACD line in the H4 chart. The Marlin Oscillator is at its zero neutral line and is ready to fall again. In this case, the first target level of 0.7565 is expected to be broken through, with 60% probability.



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  3. #893
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 1, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the price of the lower shadow of the daily candle almost reached the upper border of the target range of 1.1688-1.1700. The upper limit can still be taken, the October 19, 2021 low at 1.1703, then the range will correspond to the extremes of October 15-19, and in this case it will be reached with an accuracy of point (1.1704).

    Today's US report on the ISM manufacturing PMI for March is expected to grow from 60.8 to 61.3, weekly applications for unemployment benefits are expected to decline from 684,000 to 680,000, and tomorrow the unemployment data will be released, in which new jobs in the non-agricultural sector are expected to reach 647,000(!) against 379,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is predicted to decrease from 6.2% to 6.0%.



    All these circumstances make us think that the development of the Marlin oscillator in its own triangle will follow the option with the lower output (dashed line on the chart), and the current double convergence will be abolished. The euro will aim for 1.1560, the area of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.



    The convergence flared up and went out on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, after entering the growth area, found itself in negative territory again. The price may stay in the range of 1.1700/4-1.1745 for some time, but tonight or tomorrow it will go down, especially since the market will be thin due to the Catholic Easter holidays.

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  4. #894
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 2, 2021

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD pair has hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.3834 and made a local high at the level of 1.3850. The next target for bulls is located at the level of 1.3867 (61% Fibonacci retracement). On the other hand, if bulls fail to do so, the next target for bears is located at 1.3669 (recent swing low) and then at 1.3557 (weekly low from February 2021). The next technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3850. Please notice the momentum is neutral and can turn again into negative territory any time now.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.4089
    WR2 - 1.3984
    WR1 - 1.3884
    Weekly Pivot - 1.3780
    WS1 - 1.3675
    WS2 - 1.3568
    WS3 - 1.3466

    Trading Recommendations:
    The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and bulls are back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.



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  5. #895
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 5, 2021

    EUR/USD

    A strong US employment report came out last Friday: 916,000 new jobs were created in March, the revision for February and January added another 156,000, the unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 6.0%, while the share of the labor force increased from 61.4% to 61.5%. Another similar release, and ideas for an earlier rate hike may resurface. Perhaps this is what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve. Moreover, we suspect that the labor report was regarded, because the Nonfarm is traditionally a manipulative tool, and the most radical forecasts were waiting for an increase above 2 million. But later on it will be clear how the government has seriously taken the improvement.

    However, due to the Easter holidays, the dollar was not redeemed intensively, and today Europe is also resting. The index of business activity in the US services sector according to the ISM for March is expected to grow from 55.3 to 58.5. New data can still push the euro down deeper, to the range of 1.1688-1.1700.



    On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reverses from the upper boundary of its own wedge. As a result, we are waiting for the oscillator to go deep down. We are waiting for the price to reach the target level of 1.1560 - the approximate level of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.



    The price turns down from the MACD indicator line on the four-hour scale. If the price moves below the nearest target level of 1.1745, the target range is 1.1688-1.1700.

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  6. #896
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 6, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro gained 51 points in yesterday's US session. In related markets, government bond yields declined, stock indices rose (S&P 500 1.44%), while oil prices fell (-4.0%). So far, it seems that the dollar is more sensitive to increased expectations of a rate hike following the strong employment data on Friday, rather than due to increased risk appetite. The ISM Service PMI for March showed an increase from 55.3 to 63.7 against the forecast of 58.3, but factory orders slipped by -0.8% against expectations of -0.5%. In the current situation, there is no risk of the euro reversal upward, visually it is still the same correction.



    On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the triangle in the opposite direction to our expectations. Now the triangle is abolished and the double convergence remains, which carries the risk that the correction would reach the target level of 1.1950, the MACD indicator line is aiming for this level. But for this, Marlin must settle in the zone of positive values, the price must settle above the 1.1836 level - this is the March 9 low. The price rarely overcomes double convergences and divergences, creating a false signal, but now, with strong fundamental pressure on the euro, it can do so, so the best tactic today, and possibly tomorrow, will be to watch the market from the outside.



    Nothing to add to what has been said on the four-hour chart. The price is above the indicator lines and, being at strong price levels, looks for market reasons for a reversal or continued growth.

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  7. #897
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on April 7, 2021

    GBP/USD
    The British pound did not follow the euro, the general weakening of the dollar, but turned downward from the area where the MACD indicator line coincided with the 38.2% correction level. The Marlin oscillator also turned down from the zero line. This simultaneous reversal of the price and the oscillator creates a strong downward signal. The target of this decline is the 1.3625 level.



    The price has settled below the signal-target level of 1.3845 on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the downward trend zone, the price is visually preparing to overcome the support of the MACD line, which coincides with yesterday's low at 1.3801.



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  8. #898
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 8, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro tried to continue the corrective growth yesterday, while the published minutes of the Federal Reserve gently made it clear that the central bank has gradually shifted its mood on increasing the rate. A black candlestick with a high upper shadow was formed at the end of the day. It can be interpreted as a reversal pattern in the current situation, especially with the Marlin oscillator turning to the downside. After the price settles below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, an "underline" will be created, afterwards the lower Fibonacci level is reached in 80% of cases. For the current situation, this is the initial 0.0%, that is, the 1.1700 target level becomes relevant again. The price is waiting for two intermediate levels on this path, from which a slight correction is possible: 1.1810, 1.1745.



    The upward trend continues on the H4 chart. The first condition for a reversal would be for the price to settle below the 1.1855 level, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci. At the same time, the Marlin oscillator will return to the zone of negative values, which, in fact, will become the first signal for a decline.



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  9. #899
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Short-term technical analysis on XRP/USD for April 8, 2021

    XRP/USD after making a three year high at $1.1144 has pulled back towards important Fibonacci support level. Price is bouncing off the Fibonacci support and we take a look at the key price levels and possible scenarios for the next few sessions. As we mentioned in previous posts XRP/USD has broken above major resistance area of $0.70-$0.80. Price has now pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is bouncing off this support.



    Black lines - Fibonacci support levels
    Blue line - short-term support trend line

    XRP/USD is moving higher from the recent low at $0.8537. Price so far back tested the upper boundary of the previous resistance area which is now support. The short-term upward sloping blue trend line so far is being respected. As long as price holds above this line we expect a move to new highs above $1.11. If this blue line of support is broken, there are increased chances that price could fall towards the 50% or even 61.8% retracement levels. The bullish scenario for a new high above $1.11 is not cancelled even if price pulls back towards $0.70. This would be a normal back test after the huge break out. Such a pull back would be considered as a buying opportunity.

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  10. #900
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 12, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The eurozone reports that were released last Friday came out weak: Germany's trade balance reached 19.1 billion euros in February against expectations of 23.4 billion and 21.3 billion in January, German industrial production fell by 1.6% against expectations of growth by 1.6%, industrial production in France fell by 4.7% (forecast + 0.5%). The euro fell by only 12 points due to the reports. Perhaps the euro has become attached to the yields on government bonds, which slightly grew on Friday. But both bonds and the dollar are still ahead...



    The Marlin oscillator is turning around its own resistance level at 0.0092. Let's consider the current moment on the four-hour chart:



    The divergence works out its influence to the full extent- the signal line of the oscillator is embedded into the zone of negative values. After surpassing the April 8 low at 1.1861, the first target level (1.1810) opens. The second target (1.1745) opens behind it.

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