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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 13, 2021

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair bounce has been capped at 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.3763. The market reversed as the Bearish Engulfing pattern was made. The market conditions are still quite oversold, so if the level of 1.3763 is violated, then the bulls might extend the bounce towards 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down located at 1.3792. Please notice, the momentum is still weak and negative, so the bears are still in control of the market and all the bounces are so far the counter-trend corrective in nature.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.4080
WR2 - 1.4000
WR1 - 1.3827
Weekly Pivot - 1.3750
WS1 - 1.3579
WS2 - 1.3494
WS3 - 1.3340

Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and bulls are back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2021

EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro rose against macroeconomic data. The index of sentiment in the business circles of the eurozone ZEW for the current month decreased from 74.0 to 66.3 while expecting growth to 77.2, the consumer price index in the US increased by 0.6% in March against the expectation of 0.5%. Obviously, the reason lies in the decline in government bond yields. So 5-year US securities yield fell from 0.89% to 0.84%. The yield is falling for the second week in a row, and is now in the consolidation range of March 12-26, and this introduces an intrigue: will there be an upward reversal from it or a breakthrough to the downside?



The technical situation for the euro has become more uncertain than in the last two days. The price went above the balance indicator line on the daily chart, shifting the market's interest in buying, possibly with the intention to overcome the resistance of the MACD line at the levels of the highs on March 18 and 11 - 1.1990. Getting the pair to settle above the level may push it to rise to 1.2025, then to 1.2105 - to the correction levels of 50.0% and 61.8% of the movement from the January high to the March low. The Marlin oscillator has gone above its own resistance at 0.0092 and is now strengthening in growth. It is still far from the overbought zone.



The price moved up from the consolidation range on a four-hour timescale. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth area. The price clearly intends to test the first resistance at 1.1990 for strength. A reversal is possible only when the price has finally settled below the MACD line, approximately below the 1.1895 level.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro's growth from yesterday, since the dollar weakened, correlated with the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the economic club in Washington, where he spoke about the practice of reducing purchases of government bonds before raising rates. But the euro showed most of yesterday's growth even before Powell's speech, and his thesis itself did not make it clear exactly when the Fed would start to reduce its balance sheet.

Yields on government bonds slightly grew: from 0.84% to 0.86% for 5-year bonds, from 1.62% to 1.63% for 10-year bonds. Perhaps there was a correction in bond yields, which caused the euro to strengthen in recent days. There is still no strict correlation between the dynamics of the euro and yields, the growth was caused, rather, by the loss of investment interest in the dollar, because the euro's growth in April took place at the lowest volumes over the past 12 months. Investment growth against the dollar will increase in the new cycle of attracting capital under the "Biden plan" and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation. The placement of bonds under the Biden plan will begin next week (announcements of the auctions have not yet been published).



On the daily chart, the price reached a strong resistance - the coincidence of the 1.1990 level and the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator has outlined a reversal, albeit not from the overbought zone, but with a fairly high value. A correction from current prices can be expected.



A price divergence with the Marlin oscillator has formed on the four-hour chart. If the euro continues to grow in the medium term, then we expect a correction to the MACD line in the 1.1990 area. If the euro turns into a new medium-term decline, then the price should settle below this MACD line.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 16, 2021

EUR/USD
The dollar stopped weakening yesterday. US retail sales in March showed an increase of 9.8% against the forecast of 5.0-5.8%. In addition, the weekly report of the Ministry of Labor on claims for unemployment benefits showed a decline from 769,000 to 576,000 (the forecast was 703,000) and industrial production grew by 1.4% in March with an increase in capacity utilization from 73.8% to 74.4%. The desire (or forecast) of a number of investment companies to see an increase in risk appetite is still not materialized. The US stock index S&P 500 rose by 1.11%, but gold rose in price by 1.61%, the yield on 5-year government bonds fell from 0.86% to 0.81%. In the next week, the United States is placing debt obligations worth $227 billion, which will still increase the demand for the dollar.



On the daily chart, the price confirmed the reversal from the strong level (1.1990) at the point of its intersection with the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is turning down more clearly. At the very least, we are now waiting for a deep correction from the growth from March 31, possibly to the target level of 1.1810 (61.8% of this entire growing movement). At the most, we are waiting to recover the downward movement with targets below 1.1700.



The divergence has been confirmed on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is already in the negative zone. If the price moves under the MACD line, below 1.1914, the price will confirm its intention to decline in the medium term.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 19, 2021

EUR/USD
Last Friday, the euro hit the resistance level of 1.1990 at the point where it coincides with the MACD indicator line on the daily chart and is declining this morning, reaching Friday's low. The Marlin oscillator is turning down. Perhaps this is a reversal to the 1.1810 target and to subsequent, lower target levels.



The technical complexity of the current moment on the H4 chart; the gap remains open and the divergence with the oscillator risks becoming double, and the double divergence will create a cross with an undefined target. You can even allow 1.2023 - the low on February 17.



But Marlin is still in the negative zone, so it may continue to fall, and the closing of the gap will be postponed indefinitely. But the price needs to settle below the MACD line for such a scenario, below 1.1930. In this case, the 1.1810 target will become relevant.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on April 20, 2021

GBP/USD
The pound soared 150 points yesterday, without any media reports about what happened. The optimism regarding the partial lifting of restrictions in England can hardly be taken as the main one. Nevertheless, the pound is determined, it has already crossed the MACD line, and after the price consolidates above the 1.4016 level (high on March 4 (checkmark), conditions are created for a prolonged attack on the February 24 high, to approximately the level of 1.4260.



The price has consolidated above the target level of 1.3955 on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is slightly decreasing, removing tension, it seems, before the previous rally. But to confirm the signal, the price should settle above the reference level of 1.4016.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 21, 2021

EUR/USD The euro traded in a 60-point range yesterday, closing the day at the opening level. The price settled above the 50.0% Fibonacci level (daily). Now the price is ready to continue rising to the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.2105. Consolidating above it will entail another wave of growth to the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at the price of 1.2200. The trend breakdown will occur after the price settles below the MACD line, which is now just above the 38.2% Fibonacci level.



At the moment, there is no reversal situation on the four-hour chart. The growth is confident and rhythmic.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 22, 2021

EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro mirrored the situation on Tuesday: the day closed at the opening level, only the pronounced shadow was lower this time. The opening and closing of the days occurs above the Fibonacci level of 50.0%, which speaks in favor of further growth. The nearest target is the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.2105. It is followed by 1.2200 at the Fibonacci level of 76.4%. The Marlin oscillator is directed to the downside, but it is not in the overbought zone, so this short decline is only a discharge of the oscillator before it grows further.



The price continues to rise on the four-hour chart. Marlin returned to the positive area. The two-day consolidation seems to be over, now we are waiting for it to move towards the specified goals.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Short-term analysis on USDJPY

USDJPY has declined from 111 to 108 as expected after breaking out of the bullish channel. Price has stopped the decline right at the 38% Fibonacci retracement and key short-term support. A bounce towards 109-110 is justified at this point in time. Price might make a new lower low towards 107.70 before bouncing higher.



Red line - support
Green lines - Fibonacci retracement
Yellow rectangle -pull back target
USDJPY has a lot of chances of a move higher back inside the yellow rectangle. Price is at the 38% Fibonacci retracement and very close to the red trend line resistance. If price breaks below 107.70-107.50 then we should expect a deeper correction towards the next major Fibonacci retracement at 106 (61.8% retracement).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 26, 2021

EUR/USD This morning the euro reached its first target of 1.2105 at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The correction from the movement on January 6-March 31 is already quite deep, but the price does not even intend to stop. In any case, the Marlin oscillator, being a leading indicator, continues to move up on the daily chart. The growth target is now the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at the price of 1.2200.



There is a sign of an impending divergence on the four-hour chart. To secure this, the price will need to settle below 1.2105.



Data on March orders for durable goods in the United States will be published in the evening. The forecast is 2.5%. The report will probably determine the price's further action. But even if the euro does not go to the second target at 1.2200, it will not be easy to form a reversal, since there is another 60 points (1.2050) before the MACD line, a departure under which will become a condition for a bearish reversal.

So, the main scenario is the upward price movement. The risk of a reversal involves working with reduced volumes of open positions.

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