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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 27, 2017



When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, GfK German Consumer Climate, and Spanish Unemployment Rate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1787.
Strong Resistance:1.1780.
Original Resistance: 1.1769.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1758.
Target Inner Area: 1.1730.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1702.
Original Support: 1.1691.
Strong Support: 1.1680. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1673.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 28, 2017



Overview:

The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to a strong support at the level of 0.9579 yesterday. The level of 0.9579 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as a major support today. Since the trend is above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 0.9575. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to move between 0.9579 and 0.9728. In the H4 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9666 and 0.9728. Also, it should be noticed that the level of 0.9666 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, a strong support will be formed at the level of 0.9575 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.9666. If the trend breaks the support at 0.9666 (the first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.9728 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, the stop loss is to be placed below the level of 0.952.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 31, 2017



When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as unemployment rate, Italian flash CPI m/m, core CPI flash estimate y/y, CPI flash estimate y/y, Italian monthly unemployment rate, and German retail sales m/m. The US will release its pending home sales m/m and Chicago PMI. So amid the reports, the EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility today.

Today's technical levels:
Breakout buy Level: 1.1804.
Strong resistance:1.1797.
Original resistance: 1.1786.
Inner sell area: 1.1775.
Target inner area: 1.1747.
Inner buy area: 1.1719.
Original support: 1.1708.
Strong support: 1.1697.
Breakout sell level: 1.1690.

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EUR/JPY profit target reached once again, prepare to sell



The price has bounced above our buying entry and is fast approaching our profit target once again. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 130.78 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a drop towards 129.96 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 94% where we expect a strong drop from.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY strength with AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY expecting drops. We are also expecting EUR weakness with strong resistance seen on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

Sell below 130.78. Stop loss is at 131.08. Take profit is at 129.96.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 02, 2017



In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence and Monetary Base y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 111.05.
Resistance. 2: 110.84.
Resistance. 1: 110.62.
Support. 1: 110.34.
Support. 2: 110.13.
Support. 3: 109.91.

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Inflation data reflected on the euro



Today's inflation data released in the first half of the day was not very encouraging for the European Central Bank. The regulator expects to achieve a target inflation rate just below 2.0%, which is still significantly out of its reach.

Producer prices fell in June, which goes against the ECB's plans to wind down monetary stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.

According to the European Union's statistics agency, the producer price index of the eurozone in June this year fell by 0.1% compared with May. It should be noted that the last increase of this index was recorded in January this year. The only consolation is that, compared with June last year, the index rose by 2.5%.

As seen from the recent data, the acceleration of economic growth has little effect on inflation.

Yesterday, data was released, which indicated that the euro area's GDP grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter and by 2.1% compared to the same period of the previous year.

The current exchange rate of the euro against a number of other currencies also creates a number of setbacks to exports and could adversely affect the rate of economic growth by the fourth quarter of this year.

Today it also became known that the Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector in Switzerland increased by 0.8 points in July, to 60.9 points. Such indicators indicate very serious signs of further acceleration of activity in the manufacturing industry in Switzerland.

Nevertheless, the Swiss franc still remains under pressure against the euro and the US dollar. The USD/CHF pair rose sharply, having reached the level of 0.9700, the breakthrough of which will open the opportunity to update the July highs to around 0.9730.

Data in the second half of the day on the labor market in the US did not make have any significant impact to the market.

According to the report by Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Moody's Analytics, the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 178, 000 in July this year, while economists forecast a bigger job increase of 180,000. The June data were revised. So, the number of new jobs for the month was 191,000, not 158,000, as previously reported.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 04, 2017



In Asia, Japan will release the Average Cash Earnings y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 110.63.
Resistance. 2: 110.41.
Resistance. 1: 110.20.
Support. 1: 109.93.
Support. 2: 109.72.
Support. 3: 109.50.

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EUR/JPY prepare to buy on major support



The price is now testing major support at 130.19 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, bullish divergence) and we expect to see a strong bounce above this level for a push up to 131.03 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 7.8% and also sees bullish divergence signaling that a bounce is impending.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and USD/JPY.

Buy above 130.19. Stop loss is at 129.76. Take profit is at 131.03.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 08, 2017



When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Mortgage Delinquencies, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1855.
Strong Resistance:1.1848.
Original Resistance: 1.1837.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1826.
Target Inner Area: 1.1798.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1770.
Original Support: 1.1759.
Strong Support: 1.1748.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1741.

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Germany shows its poor performance

Data for France and Germany, which came out in the morning, were completely ignored by the market. The low intraday volatility, which did not exceed 20 points in the EURUSD pair, indicates that many investors and traders prefer to take some pause, since the US dollar's rally since Friday is no longer supported by large players, and many market participants are in a bit of a confusion and are unsure how to proceed.

According to the statistics agency, there is a decline in German imports and exports. However, this has not yet affected the foreign trade balance.

As indicated in the report, Germany's exports in June this year compared with May decreased by 2.8%, while the reduction in imports was 4.5%. Germany's foreign trade surplus in June amounted to 21.2 billion euros, while economists predicted the trade balance at the level of 21.4 billion euros. It should be noted that as early as May of this year, the surplus passed the 20 billion euros mark for the first time.

The reduction in industrial production in Germany, which was reported yesterday, along with today's data, is the first alarm bell that the economic growth rate of the first-largest euro-zone economy is gradually slowing down, which will undoubtedly affect the indicators for the second quarter of this year.



According to the statistics agency, the current deficit in France's balance of payments increased. This happened due to the sharper than expected decline in exports.

According to the report, in June this year the negative balance of the current account the balance of payments totaled to 2.1 billion euros against 1.9 billion euros in May. The trade deficit rose to 4.7 billion euros. The deficit of the state budget of France in June rose to 62.3 billion euros from 61.8 billion euros in May. Since the inauguration of the new president of France, very little time has passed, but, as we recall, Macron promised to give a lot of effort to combat the budget deficit.

In the afternoon, data came from The Retail Economist and Goldman Sachs, according to which retail sales increased during the reporting week. So, the index of sales in US retail chains increased by 2.4% for the week from July 30 to August 5, while in comparison with the same period last year the index grew by 1.1%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged compared to the morning review.

A further downward trend will be entirely fixed at yesterday's support level of 1.1790, to gain a foothold below which it has not yet been possible. Selling is recommended after the return of the trading instrument under the level of 1.1790, with the main goal of reducing the support area to 1.1740. A breakthrough in this area will open up the possibility of the euro falling to new weekly lows of around 1.1670.


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