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This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 11, 2017 Overview: The NZD/USD didn't make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes ...

          
   
  1. #71
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 11, 2017



    Overview:
    The NZD/USD didn't make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 0.7000 or higher. Immediate support is seen around 0.7087. The NZD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7128 towards 0.7087. Now, the price is set at 0.7069 to act as a minor support. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.7128 and 0.7040 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.7169 and 0.7220, which coincides with the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the NZD/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.7128. Thereupon, the price spot of 0.7128/0.7087 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.0020, sell below 0.7128 or 0.7087 with the first targets at 0.7040 and 0.7000 (support 3). However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 0.7169.

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  2. #72
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    The political crisis in Spain does not put pressure on the euro



    Despite the continuing tension between Spain and Catalonia, the European currency continues to strengthen its positions against the US dollar. The expected publication of the report of the Federal Reserve System since the last meeting also does not put pressure on euro buyers.

    Today, the Prime Minister of Spain has demanded that the leader of Catalonia Carles Puigdemont gave a clearer assessment of his position and answer the question whether he declared the independence of the region or not.

    If the Catalan leader takes this step, the Prime Minister of Spain will be fully entitled to deprive the rights of Catalonia some autonomy, which will lead to greater confrontation. This will be done with an based on article 155 of the Spanish Constitution, which allows the government to deprive the regions of certain rights of autonomy in the event of a threat to the interests of Spain.

    Statements by the representatives of the Federal Reserve did not affect the prices of the US dollar. Today, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, draw the focus towards the fundamental indicators of the US economy. In his view, the current situation is good enough to start a discussion about the need to raise interest rates later this year. Evans also noted the improvement in the situation with wages, and expects that the unemployment rate in the US may drop even lower.

    As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, going beyond resistance 1.1830 had a positive impact on new buyers of risky assets, which led to the further increase of the trading instrument already in the 1.1860 area with the main purpose of reaching 1.1870.

    The growth potential of the euro may be limited by the Fed's minutes, which will be published tonight.

    Prices of oil fell after the release of the OPEC report, which noted an increase in production levels.

    According to the data, the cartel's production in September this year increased to 32.75 million barrels per day. OPEC expects oil demand to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day by 2017 fiscal year, as well as 1.4 million barrels a day in 2018.

    The cartel also increased the estimate of the world supply of oil in September to 96.5 million barrels per day. Total oil reserves in OECD countries in August 2017 were 171 million barrels, above the five-year average level.

    As for the technical picture of oil, only a breakthrough of the level of 51.30 on the WTI mark can lead to a larger upward movement with a test of the monthly highs around 52.80. If buyers can not get hold of the level of 51 US dollars, a downward correction may lead to the updating of the lower limit of 49.40.

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  3. #73
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 13, 2017



    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1886.
    Strong Resistance:1.1879.
    Original Resistance: 1.1868.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1857.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1829.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1801.
    Original Support: 1.1790.
    Strong Support: 1.1779.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1772.

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  4. #74
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 16, 2017



    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Trade Balance and German WPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Federal Budget Balance and Empire State Manufacturing Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1870.
    Strong Resistance:1.1863.
    Original Resistance: 1.1852.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1841.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1813.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1785.
    Original Support: 1.1774.
    Strong Support: 1.1763.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1756.

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  5. #75
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    The export of the eurozone is in order



    The euro managed to return a number of positions in relation to the US dollar after the release of good data on the growth of exports of goods from the eurozone in August this year. The absence of other important macroeconomic statistics forced large investors to refrain from further buying the US dollar after Friday's fluctuations.

    According to the Eurostat report, eurozone exports in August increased by 2.5% compared to July, while imports increased by only 0.4%. The positive balance of foreign trade in goods in the eurozone in August 2017 amounted to 21.6 billion euros, against the 17.9 billion euros in July.

    After such data, it can be concluded that the sharp increase in the European currency in the first half did not significantly affect the export sector, which will positively affect the overall indicator of the eurozone economy in 2017.

    Good data on the growth of production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York did not provide significant support to the US dollar in the afternoon. According to the report of the Fed-New York, the production index in October 2017 increased by 5.8 points, to 30.2 points. Forty-four percent of respondents said about improvement of conditions, while 14% of respondents said that conditions worsened. Economists had expected the index to be 20 points.

    As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, only a break and consolidation above the level of 1.1830 could lead to the return of the trading instrument to the area of monthly highs, which will allow us to count on continuing the upward trend in risky assets in order to update the levels of 1.1900 and 1.1950. For the time being, the trade is in the level of 1.1800. The pressure on the European currency will continue to be maintained, which will allow the sellers of risky assets to expect the continued decline of EURUSD already in the region of monthly lows in the range of 1.1690 and for their renewal in the 1.1630 and 1.1600 areas.

    Today it also became known that the budget surplus of Greece has grown. According to the Ministry of Finance of the country, over the past 9 months of this year, the budget surplus of Greece amounted to 4.54 billion euros. However, it was not possible to reach the target level due to a reduction in tax revenues. According to the Ministry of Finance, budget revenues from January to September amounted to 36 billion euros, which is below the target level of 2.4 billion euros.

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