Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EUR is rising moderately. Overview for 22.04.2024

The primary currency pair maintains its upward trajectory on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0663.

Recent comments from the US Federal Reserve have led investors to reconsider global interest rate cut timelines. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is believed to start reducing the interest rate in the mid-year.

ECB member Madis Muller stated on Friday that the regulator may cut interest rates several times by the end of the year after the initial move in June if inflation is in line with expectations. ECB president Christine Lagarde hinted at the same last week without providing indications of specific timelines.

ECB official Robert Holzmann stated earlier that the ECB will likely need more time to be prepared to cut rates as aggressively as planned.

As usual, opinions differ, but this diversity of viewpoints proves positive: the market is concerned about prospects and, therefore, carefully analyses the developments.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 23.04.2024 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, "Australian Dollar vs US Dollar"
AUDUSD quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating the prevalence of a downtrend. However, a convergence has formed on the RSI. As a result, in this situation, the quotes are expected to rise above 2/8 (0.6469), later reaching the resistance at 4/8 (0.6591). The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the 1/8 (0.6408) level. In this case, the price might return to the support at 0/8 (0.6347).



On M15, the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel is breached, which increases the probability of a further price rise.



NZDUSD, "New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar"
NZDUSD quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, revealing the prevalence of a downtrend, while a convergence has formed on the RSI. In this situation, the quotes are expected to breach 1/8 (0.5920), subsequently rising towards the resistance at 4/8 (0.6103). The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the 0/8 (0.5859) level, in which case the quotes could drop to the support at -1/8 (0.5798).



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

AUD is confident. Overview for 24.04.2024

The Australian dollar, paired with the US dollar, looks promising mid-week. The current AUDUSD exchange rate is 0.6515, marking the highest level in almost two weeks.

Investors are reacting to fresh statistics on Australian inflation and believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not lower interest rates for now.

Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 4.1% to 3.6% q/q in Q1. The figure exceeded the forecasted 3.4% level but continued to slow down for the fifth consecutive quarter. Data from earlier this week revealed the private sector's most impressive expansion in two years. Manufacturing activity in Australia approached the break-even point, while service sector activity reached its highest in three months. All this confirms that the Australian economy is stable and sturdy.

The prospect of the RBA keeping the interest rate unchanged logically supports the Aussie.

Additional support comes from the local weakness of the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 25.04.2024 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
USDCAD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target might be 1.3770. Next, the price could break the level and continue developing the uptrend. However, the quotes might correct towards 1.3660 before rising.



AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
AUDUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The decline target might be 0.6475. Upon testing the support, the quotes could break the level and continue developing the downtrend. However, the quotes might rise to the 0.6560 level before the decline.



USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF has formed a Harami reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument might go by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The correction target might be 0.9100. After testing the support, the price could rebound from this level and continue developing the uptrend. However, the quotes might rise towards 0.9190 without correcting to the support.



Read more - Japanese Candlesticks Analysis (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EUR is rising smoothly. Overview for 26.04.2024

The primary currency pair demonstrates a modest increase on Friday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0722.

The market is uncertain whether the US Federal Reserve has all the necessary arguments to lower the interest rate in the near future. Yesterday's weak US GDP release for Q1 2024 could have been a reason to soften the monetary policy if the Fed were prepared to act.

The US economy increased by only 1.6% in January-March, contrary to the expected rise of 2.5%. In Q4 last year, the GDP demonstrated a 3.4% increase.

Meanwhile, consumer demand remains high. This factor limits the Fed's actions, compelling it to await a more opportune moment to lower the rate.

Today, the macroeconomic calendar is packed with statistics. The focus is on the March Core PCE inflationary component and reports on Americans' income and spending for the previous month.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

AUD continues to rise. Overview for 29.04.2024

The Australian dollar appears strong against the US dollar. The current AUDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6567.

The Aussie surpassed a three-week high against its American counterpart as the USD slightly corrected its position ahead of this week's meeting. It is worth noting that the Aussie has surged to its 11-year high against the JPY. The anticipated currency interventions from the Bank of Japan still do not deter anyone.

Previous inflation statistics in Australia reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not embark on monetary policy easing anytime soon. The consumer price index in Q1 declined to 3.6% from the previous 4.1%. However, it remained above the forecasted 3.4%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of easing inflationary pressure.

Meanwhile, the monthly index accelerated in March, reaching 3.5% from 3.4% in February.

This week, Australia will publish retail sales and trade statistics, providing further insights into the state of the economy.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 02.05.2024 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
EURUSD quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing downtrend. However, the RSI has surpassed the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 4/8 (1.0772) level and break above it, rising to the resistance at 5/8 (1.0864). The scenario might be cancelled by a rebound from the 4/8 (1.0772) level. In this case, the pair could fall to the support at 3/8 (1.0620).



On M15, the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a further price rise.



GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
The GBPUSD chart shows a similar situation, with the quotes hovering below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing downtrend. However, the RSI has surpassed the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break above the 3/8 (1.2573) level and rise to the resistance at 4/8 (1.2695). The scenario might be cancelled by a rebound from the 3/8 (1.2573) level, pushing the pair down to the support at 2/8 (1.2451).



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JPY declines again. Overview for 07.05.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, resumes its decline. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 154.54.

After a series of strengthening moves, the yen came under pressure again amid the statements of a leading monetary policymaker Masato Kanda that the government is ready to fight speculative movements of exchange rates. However, Kanda left unanswered the question of interventions last week.

The yen rose by 5.2% from its 34-year lows, with strong growth observed during three sessions but then stopping.

As the Bank of Japan data shows, at least 60 billion USD was spent to protect the yen.

If these were targeted interventions, it is no wonder that the yen resumed its decline once they were over. Fundamental indicators remain negative for the JPY – the difference between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve approaches is profound.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 08.05.2024 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
AUDUSD quotes have broken above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating the potential development of an uptrend. The RSI is approaching the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to surpass the 4/8 (0.6591) level and rise to the resistance at 6/8 (0.6713). The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the 3/8 (0.6530) level. In this case, the quotes might retrace to the support at 2/8 (0.6469).



On M15, a breakout of the upper line of the VoltyChannel will increase the probability of price growth.



NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”
NZDUSD quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing downtrend. The RSI is testing from the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break below the 2/8 (0.5981) level and maintain its downward trajectory to the support at 0/8 (0.5859). The scenario could be cancelled if the price surpasses the 3/8 (0.6042) level. In this case, the quotes might reach the resistance at 4/8 (0.6103).



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

NZD is declining. Overview for 13.05.2024

The New Zealand dollar, paired with the US dollar, is retreating. The current NZDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6008.

The position of the US dollar has stabilised, once again exerting pressure on the NZD. The market focus is shifting to the US inflation statistics, which are scheduled for release this week.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its meeting next week, with the interest rate expected to remain at 5.5% per annum. The RBNZ intends to maintain its restrictive monetary policy until there are more concrete indications that inflation is approaching the designated 2% target.

Overall, the RBNZ's position aligns with the global agenda: monitoring prices, recording economic slowdown facts, and keeping its finger on the pulse to intervene at the right moment.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team