Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

GBP found itself amid bears. Overview for 22.03.2024

The UK pound sterling weakened noticeably against the US dollar. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2643.

As expected, the March BoE meeting ended predictably, with the interest rate kept at 5.25% per annum. The regulator's commentaries were restrained. The BoE indicated that the monetary policy would remain restrictive for as long as necessary to control inflation fully.

The Bank of England's inflation target remains at 2%, which the regulator believes can be achieved by the end of Q2 2024. However, no indication was given as to what the BoE intends to do after that.

It appears that the Bank of England is diverging from the general strategy of other global banks regarding interest rates, which is why the pound crashed.

The GBP exchange rate is under additional pressure from the US dollar, which has strengthened noticeably.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 22.03.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent
Brent quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI is approaching the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 6/8 (84.71) level and rebound from it, rising to the resistance at 8/8 (87.50). The scenario could be cancelled by breaking below the 6/8 (84.71) level. In this case, Brent quotes could drop to the support at 5/8 (82.81).





On M15, the price rise could be additionally confirmed by a breakout of the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel.





S&P 500
S&P 500 quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI is testing the support level. In this situation, the price is expected to rise further to the nearest resistance at 8/8 (5312.5). The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the 7/8 (5234.4) level. In this case, the S&P 500 index could decline to the support at 6/8 (5156.2).





Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)


Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

GBP has suspended its decline. Overview for 25.03.2024

The UK pound sterling suspended its falling against the US dollar. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2607.

Last week, GBP suffered a lot. It dropped 1% against USD on Thursday and 0.5% more on Friday after the Bank of England left the interest rate without a change. Everything turned out just as expected but the tone of the BoE’s comments remained rather soft. Two policymakers from the monetary committee denounced their previous calls for raising the lending cost.

However, the experience of the Swiss National Bank that suddenly raised the interest rate last week opens similar doors for other regulators.

The UK pound is not expecting much important statistics. Still there are things to take a look at: on Thursday, the UK GBP reports for Q4 2023 will be presented. According to preliminary estimations, the economy might have dropped by 0.2% y/y after rising by 0.3% previously.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 27.03.2024 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY quotes are in the overbought area on D1. The RSI is approaching the overbought area. In this situation, the price is expected to rebound from the +1/8 (151.56) level and decline to the support at 7/8 (148.43). The scenario could be cancelled by rising above the +1/8 (151.56) level. In this case, the pair might maintain its upward trajectory, reaching the resistance at +2/8 (153.12).



On M15, the price decline could be additionally supported by a breakout of the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel.



USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
USDCAD quotes are approaching the overbought area on D1, while the RSI is approaching the resistance level. In this situation, the quotes are expected to test the 8/8 (1.3671) level, rebound from it, and drop to the support at 6/8 (1.3427). The scenario could be cancelled by surpassing the 8/8 (1.3671) level. In this case, the pair might rise to the resistance at +1/8 (1.3793).



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EUR continues to lose weight. Overview for 28.03.2024

The primary currency pair is heading downwards on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0823.

Overall, the market sentiment easily fits into consolidation as the decline does not appear agitated. Investors are conserving energy before new economic statistics from the US are released, particularly before tomorrow's Core PCE report. This is the Federal Reserve's favourite inflation indicator.

The general expectation is that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points.

Simultaneously, the likelihood of an interest rate decrease by the European Central Bank in June is estimated at 81%, compared to a 64% probability for the Fed.

The main market movements are expected today because tomorrow is a public holiday in most Catholic countries for Good Friday.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 29.03.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent
Brent quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, which indicates the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has rebounded from the support line. In this situation, a rebound from 4/8 (87.50) level is expected, followed by a rise towards the resistance at 5/8 (90.62). The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of 3/8 (84.38), followed by a trend reversal and a decline to 2/8 (81.25).

On M15, the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a price rise.

S&P 500
The S&P 500 quotes are in the overbought area on D1. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, a test of +2/8 (5312.5) is expected, followed by a rebound from this level and a price decline to the support at 8/8 (5000.00). The scenario could be cancelled by a rebound from +2/8 (5312.5), which might lead to the reshuffling of the Murrey indication, after which new price targets will be set.


Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EUR dropped to the mid-February lows. Overview for 02.04.2024

The primary currency pair remains under significant pressure on Tuesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0730.

US statistics released yesterday triggered a substantial strengthening of the USD. The data included the March ISM Manufacturing PMI. The report showed an increase to 50.3 points from 47.8 points the previous month. Firstly, the indicator surpassed the 50-point threshold that distinguishes between decline and growth. Secondly, it halted a 16-month downtrend.

The components of the new release appeared varied. Manufacturing parameters recovered, and the number of new orders increased. However, employment in the sector remains low, and commodity price pressure persists.

According to CME FedWatch, the market has slightly adjusted its expectations regarding the US Fed’s interest rate cut in June.

Today, the market focus is on the March manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and the February manufacturing order report in the US.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 03.04.2024 (XAUUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF)

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold has gained a foothold above the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 2265 is expected, followed by a rise to 2325. An additional signal confirming the rise could be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing below 2215, which will signal a further decline to 2175.



GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD is correcting following a rebound from the lower boundary of a bearish channel. The pair is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the lower boundary of the Cloud at 1.2605 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.2455. An additional signal confirming the decline could be a rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the Cloud’s upper boundary, with the price securing above 1.2705, indicating further growth to 1.2805.



USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF has established itself above the resistance level. The pair is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 0.9025 is expected, followed by a rise to 0.9205. An additional signal confirming the rise could be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, with the price securing below 0.8920, which will signal a further decline to 0.8825.



Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis (XAUUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EUR recovered its losses. Overview for 04.04.2024

The primary currency pair is moving upwards on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0844.

The euro's recovery against the US dollar is due to yesterday's comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding future interest rates. In fact, he merely confirmed that the Fed would rely on recent statistics when making interest rate decisions. The market responds positively to this, suggesting stability, and the Fed is gradually preparing for an interest rate cut in June.

Considering this, the US employment market statistics for March, which are due for release on Friday, are critical.

The consensus forecast suggests that the unemployment rate remained at 3.9%, while average wages surged by 4.1% y/y compared to 4.3% previously. The nonfarm payrolls report might show a 205 thousand increase after skyrocketing by 273 thousand in February.

The probability of an interest rate rise in June is currently estimated at 60%.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 05.04.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent
Brent quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. However, the RSI is in the overbought area. As a result, in this situation, the price is expected to rebound from the 5/8 (90.62) level and drop to the support at 4/8 (87.50). The scenario could be cancelled by breaking above the 5/8 (90.62) level. In this case, Brent quotes could maintain their upward trajectory, potentially reaching the resistance at 6/8 (93.75).



On M15, the price decline could be additionally confirmed by a breakout of the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel.



S&P 500
S&P 500 quotes remain in the overbought area on D1. The RSI has broken the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to break below the +1/8 (5156.2) level and fall to the support at 8/8 (5000.00). The scenario could be cancelled by rising above +2/8 (5312.5), which might reshuffle the Murrey indication, setting new price movement targets.



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team