Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Yen is ready to attack. Overview for 05.12.2019

After completing the correction, USDJPY is ready for a new decline; “safe haven” assets are in demand again.

The Japanese Yen is rising a bit against the USD on Thursday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 108.83.

In the morning, Japan unveiled a $120 billion fiscal boost to fight external risks and support stalling growth. Average forecasts for the Japanese GDP in 2019 imply +0.8+0.9%, but expectations for 2020 are much worse and may be as little as +0.5%. This is too little for such a powerful economy as the Japanese one.

No details were announced, but they will be after the package is approved by the Cabinet. However, according to the Reuters, the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that “it’s based on three pillars of ensuring disaster rebuilding and safety, providing intensive support to overcome downside economic risks and sustaining economic vitality after the Tokyo Olympics”.

The spending will spread over a supplementary budget for this fiscal year to March and an annual budget for the coming fiscal year from April, both to be compiled later this month.

The fact that Japan is ready to extend the stimulus program indicates the country’s economy lacks positive momentum. If it hadn’t been for the US-China trade wars, which affect Japan pretty much, the Japanese GDP would have been way better, but alas.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 06.12.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6842; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6825 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6920. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6755. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6695. After breaking Triangle’s upside border and fixing above 0.6865, the price may continue moving upwards.



Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD

The Euro intends to grow. Overview for 06.12.2019

The major currency pair remains stable on Friday and intends to continue its growth.

EURUSD is keeping its positive momentum at the end of a very volatile week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1102.

The American currency got significantly weaker yesterday due to mixed numbers from the USA. The Factory Orders report showed +0.3% m/m in October after being -0.8% m/m in the previous month. The indicator got a little support from the growth of demand for computers and electronic products, as well as machinery orders, but at the time of weak business activity and manufacturing sector, the growth is rather limited.

Transportation equipment orders rebounded by +0.7% after losing 3.2% in September. Civilian aircraft and parts increased by 10.7%, but couldn’t completely recover after showing -19.0% the month before.

It’s quite interesting that orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components dropped 1.8%, thus eliminating growth by 0.9% September.

Data on the labor market was good: the weekly Unemployment Claims report showed 203K after 213K the week before, which is the lowest value in 7 months. The USA will continue reporting on the employment, including the NFP and the Unemployment Rate. These reports are always interesting for market players and make EURUSD more active.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 09.12.2019 (GOLD, NZDUSD)

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending tendency continues. After completing several reversal patterns, including Inverted Hammer, close to the channel’s downside, XAUUSD is trying to reverse. In this case, the upside target may be at 1481.00. At the same time, we shouldn’t exclude an opposite scenario, which implies that the instrument may continue falling towards 1455.50.



Read more - Japanese Candlesticks Analysis GOLD, NZDUSD

The Euro remains under pressure. Overview for 09.12.2019

The major currency pair surrendered last Friday because of the American statistics; right now, it is still under pressure.

On Monday afternoon, EURUSD is balancing under zero gravity, but bears seem to be pretty strong. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1064.

The numbers of the US labor market published last Friday provided as much support to the USD as possible. The Unemployment Rate hit the 50-year low at 3.5% in November after being 3.6% the month before, although the indicator wasn’t expected to change. Another report, the Non-Farm Employment Change showed 266K over the same period of time after being 156K in October. The forecast was 181K, but the actual reading exceeded expectations.

The report on the Average Hourly Earnings, which showed +0.2% m/m (worse than both previous and expected readings) couldn’t spoil the mood.

Overall, the numbers on the US labor market afforded market players a long-awaited ground for making a pause among the flow of negative news.
One more thing to support the American currency was the preliminary report on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which increased up to 99.2 points in December (better than expected) after being 96.8 points in the previous month. The Current Conditions improved up to 115.2 points, thus indicating the growing optimism of those surveyed in relation to their financial status.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Murrey Math Lines 10.12.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD is consolidating. In this case, the pair is expected to break 4/8 and continue growing towards the resistance at 5/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue falling to reach the support at 2/8.



Read more - Murrey Math Lines AUDUSD, NZDUSD

The Australian Dollar is quietly falling. Overview for 10.12.2019

On Tuesday morning, AUDUSD is retreating affected by the statistics from Austalia and China.

The Australian Dollar is “losing weight” against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6825.

Today’s statistics from Australia showed that the NAB Business Confidence dropped to 0 points in November after being 2 points in the previous month. The indicator is calculated based on the survey results of staff of the largest Australian companies excluding the agricultural sector. Readings above zero mean optimism, otherwise – pessimism.

Chinese inflation reached the highest level since 2012 and now equals 4.5% y/y after being 3.8% y/y in October. However, the actual reading matched the expected one, because the inflation was predicted to increase earlier. The key reason was pork: after the Montgomery swine flu outbreak, the market suffered from pork shortage, thus increasing the CPI. On YoY, pork prices added 110%, on MoM – 3.8% after expanding by 20.1% the month before.

The inflation target for China is 3%.

There is an assumption that in order to lower the inflation pressure on the country’s economy, the People's Bank of China may devalue the Yuan.

All processes in the Chinese economy are important for Australia because China is its key trade and economic partner.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 11.12.2019 (EURUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after completing a quick ascending structure and expanding the descending channel’s borders, EURUSD is still trading close to the resistance level; by now, the pair has reversed after forming Hanging Man pattern. We may assume that later the price may test the resistance level and get back to 1.1055 to resume the descending tendency. However, one shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the price may continue growing towards 1.1133.



Read more - Japanese Candlesticks Analysis EURUSD, USDJPY

The Pound started Wednesday in a drawdown. Overview for 11.12.2019

GBPUSD is falling on Wednesday morning; investors are “digesting” the statistics and waiting for the US Fed meeting.

The British Pound couldn’t keep its positive momentum and right now is falling against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3130.

Yesterday, the United Kingdom published quite interesting numbers, but the Pound barely responded to them, because market players were and still are focused on the upcoming early parliamentary elections, which are scheduled on December 12th. However, there was no news about this topic in the morning, that’s why investors switched to the statistics.

The British GDP didn’t change in comparison with the previous reading, although it was expected to add 0.1% m/m. Consequently, the UK’s economy stagnated in October, which is not good for the national currency at all.

The Industrial Production added 0.1% m/m in October, thus recovering a little bit after losing 0.3% m/m in the previous month. The forecast was +0.2% m/m, but the sector wasn’t ready for such growth because businesses couldn’t be sure whether the Brexit would happen or postponed again.

The Construction Output showed -2.3% m/m in October after being -0.2% m/m in September and against the expected recovery by 0.2% m/m.

Today, investors’ attention is focused on the US Fed meeting, the last one this year. As a result, GBPUSD may become more volatile in the evening.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Murrey Math Lines 12.12.2019 (USDCHF, GOLD)

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, USDCHF is moving below 3/8. In this case, the price is expected to continue falling to reach the support at 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing towards the resistance at 5/8.



Read more - Murrey Math Lines USDCHF, GOLD