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Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

This is a discussion on Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; The Euro is under pressure again. Overview for 27.11.2019 The major currency pair got under pressure on Wednesday morning; investors ...

      
   
  1. #111
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    The Euro is under pressure again. Overview for 27.11.2019

    The major currency pair got under pressure on Wednesday morning; investors can’t find reasons for stability.

    EURUSD moved upwards a little bit yesterday, but this morning the pair lost everything it “gained” earlier. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1009.

    Yesterday, the major currency pair was supported by a gleam of optimism referring to slight progress in the US-China trade talks. However, after the American and Chinese officials talked on the phone and both said that it was necessary to continue negotiations, market players were braced for more details, but nothing happened.

    The statistics published by the USA weren’t too good for the USD. The New Home Sales showed 733K in November after being 738K the month before and it was still better than expected. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence was 125.5 points in November after being 126.1 points in the previous month and against the expected reading of 126.9 points.

    The decline of the indicator means that the consumer sentiment in the USA is getting worse, which, in its turn, means a reduction of expenses. It’s not a good signal for the USD and the American economy.

    There will be a lot of numbers from the USA today. The ones worth paying attention to are the preliminary report on the GDP in the third quarter, which is not expected to change in comparison with the previous reading (1.9% q/q), and the Durable Goods Orders for October, which is pretty volatile and may show 0.5% m/m after being -1.2% m/m in September. For better understanding, one should take a closer look at the components.

    One more interesting thing is the report on Personal Income and Spending: both indicators are expected to add 0.3% m/m, which is equal or a bit better than in the previous month. If the readings are good, they may provide support to the USD.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

  2. #112
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    Murrey Math Lines 28.11.2019 (USDCHF, GOLD)

    USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

    As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCHF is trading near the “overbought area”. In this case, the price is expected to test 8/8, rebound from it, and then resume falling to reach the support at 5/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 8/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing towards the resistance at +2/8.



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  3. #113
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    The Euro remains under pressure. Overview for 28.11.2019

    On Thursday morning, EURUSD is consolidating; however, it remains under pressure, mostly because of external background.

    EURUSD stopped falling and started consolidating, but the market sentiment is still bearish. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1006.

    External background keeps investors in suspense. Yesterday, the US President Donald Trump signed two Hong Kong laws and Beijing vowed retaliation, thus leading market players to the conclusion that the trade talks may reach a deadlock again. According to Reuters, “The “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act,” which the Senate and House passed last week, puts the special treatment Hong Kong enjoys under U.S. law under tighter scrutiny linked to the extent of the territory’s autonomy from Beijing.” Of course, in American reality, this law may be stretched as the USA chooses. China said on several occasions in the past that it would brook no interference with the country’s internal affairs. So now, after the laws are signed, Beijing is ready to cut the talk and walk the walk.

    The statistics published by the USA yesterday were rather mixed. The GDP report showed that the second estimation was 2.1% q/q against the first one of 1.9% q/q, and that’s good. However, the Personal Income was disappointing with 0.0% m/m in October after adding 0.3% m/m in the previous month and against the expected reading of +0.3% m/m. At the same time, Personal Spending expanded by 0.3% m/m, the same as expected, which is more than in September.

    An increase in spending combined with a lack of dynamics in incomes is not a good signal really. End-of-season sales haven’t started yet, so consumers have no reason to spend more than they can afford. Consequently, November readings may show a sharp decline in spending and that will surely have a significant influence on industrial production and the GDP later.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

  4. #114
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    Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 29.11.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

    EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

    EURUSD is still consolidating around 1.1000. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range towards 1.1018 and then return to 1.1000. After breaking this level to the downside, the instrument may continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.0984.



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  5. #115
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    Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 02.12.2019 (USDCAD, AUDUSD)

    USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

    As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending tendency continues. By now, USDCAD has formed Engulfing pattern close to the channel’s downside border. At the moment, we may assume that the pair may reverse to continue growing towards 1.3360. However, we shouldn’t ignore an alternative scenario, according to which the instrument may continue falling towards 1.3258.



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  6. #116
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    Murrey Math Lines 03.12.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

    AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

    In the H4 chart, AUDUSD is consolidating. In this case, the pair is expected to continue growing towards the resistance at 5/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue falling to reach the support at 2/8.



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  7. #117
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    The Aussie is ready to update its monthly highs. Overview for 03.12.2019

    AUDUSD is keeping positive momentum; the RBA’s neutral decision supported the Aussie.

    The Australian Dollar remains strong against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6845.

    The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was over today and the key interest rate was left intact at 0.75%. In 2019, the Australian regulator cut the rate three times and reduced it down to the all-time lowest level. This time, it remained unchanged, but the RBA may continue lowering it in the future.

    In the comments that followed, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that the regulator was ready to continue loosening its monetary policy if necessary. At the same time, it is лотown that the RBA is going to keep the rate low for a long period of time due to different global and domestic factors.

    Trade wars between the USA and China had a significant influence on the Australian economy: China is the country’s main trade and economic partner, this is why everything that is somehow connected with China is very important for the Green continent.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

  8. #118
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    Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 04.12.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

    AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

    AUDUSD is trading at 0.6820; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6815 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6915. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6760. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6695.



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  9. #119
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    The Australian Dollar is correcting. Overview for 04.12.2019

    After three trading sessions of stable and significant growth, AUDUSD is moving downwards on Wednesday; the correction is supported by numbers.

    The Aussie started retreating against the USD after several days of growth. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6822.

    The statistics published in the morning showed that the Australian GDP added only 0.4% q/q in the third quarter after expanding by 0.6% q/q the quarter before and against the expected reading of +0.5% q/q. Nevertheless, on YoY the indicator was 1.7%, which is pretty good.

    It is evident that three rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2019 haven’t yet provided the country’s economy with the expected support. At the same time, one should admit that it’s typical for the Australian economy to reverse slowly, both upwards and downwards. It means that in the long run, and the RBA shares this outlook, the GDP will feel this impulse and get more dynamic.

    The Aussie’s drawdown might have been more serious if it hadn’t been for the statistics from China published earlier today. The Caixin Services PMI increased up to 53.5 points in November after being 51.1 points the month before and against the expected reading of 51.2 points. The components of the report show that new orders increased quite well, while employment remained doubtful.

    In general, today’s market sentiment isn’t in favor of risks due to new details relating to the US-China trade talks and that put additional pressure on the Aussie.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

  10. #120
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    Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 05.12.2019 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

    AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

    As we can see in the H4 chart, the correctional downtrend seems to have completed a bit lower than 61.8% fibo, but one shouldn’t expect it to continue towards 76.0% fibo at 0.6732. After the convergence on MACD, the price is forming a new rising wave towards the high at 0.6929. if the pair breaks it, the instrument may continue the ascending tendency to reach the long-term target at 50.0% (0.6983).



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