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Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

This is a discussion on Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 20.08.2019 (EURUSD, USDJPY) EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar” As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD ...

      
   
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    Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

    Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 20.08.2019 (EURUSD, USDJPY)

    EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

    As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD has reached a very significant correctional level, 76.0% fibo and may continue falling towards the lows at 1.1027. After breaking the low, the price may continue trading towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.0942 and 1.0889 respectively. Another scenario implies that the pair may start a new rising wave without breaking the low. In this case, the ascending correction may continue towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1.1327 and 1.1422 respectively.


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    Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

    The Euro couldn’t keep momentum. Overview for 21.08.2019

    EURUSD was moving upwards last night influenced the Italian news, but couldn’t continue the momentum.

    EURUSD is under slight pressure on Wednesday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1094.

    The Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned from his position and the country’s President accepted his resignation. The reason is internal political turmoil that split the governing coalition consisted of two parties, “Five Star Movement” and “Northern League” (Italian “Movimento 5 Stelle” and “Lega Nord” respectively). Conte shifted the responsibility for this onto Matteo Salvini, the Deputy Prime Minister of Italy and the Secretary of Lega Nord.

    It appears that the parliament will be dissolved and the President will call new elections.

    For Italy, it’s an opportunity to erect a new government, which will try to solve the budget issue. The European Union warned Rome on several occasions about the consequences of the budget deficit the country had. They might be fines from the EU, at least, or suspend the country from the alliance, at most. The first scenario is quite neutral for the European currency, while the second one is extremely negative.

    Market players’ attention is still focused on the Jackson Hole Symposium this Friday, where they expected a speech from the FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

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    Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 22.08.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

    EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

    EURUSD has rebounded from 1.1106 to the downside. Possibly, the pair may break 1.1090 and then continue trading downwards to reach 1.1060. After that, the instrument may be corrected to return to 1.1090 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1019.



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    EURUSD is waiting for what Powell has to say. Overview for 23.08.2019

    On Friday, the major currency is under pressure again; investors are focused on events in Jackson Hole.

    EURUSD changed the direction once again on Friday afternoon; right now, it is moving downwards. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1069.

    Today at 5 PM Moscow time, the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech in Jackson Hole. He is widely expected to make some announcements on further prospects of the US monetary policy. The regulator may say something about the QE. Or Powell may confirm that the USA is going to continue the procedure of cutting the rate and explain why. If he does speak of softening the regulator’s monetary policy, the USD will get under serious pressure.

    The FOMC Meeting Minutes published earlier confirmed that the USA set a course for loosening, that’s why market players want Powell to say about this as much as possible.

    The current fundamental background for the European currency is quite mixed, although yesterday’s numbers were quite good. Westpac believes that the European Central Bank is ready to cut the rate and Governor Mario Draghi did a great job to prepare market players for that. In addition to that, the QE revival is also possible.

    There are some complications with Spain and Italy and their finances. Most likely, the ECB will keep this issue in sight, because uncertainty with budgets of these countries may be pretty risky for the Euro Area and the ECB’s monetary policy.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

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    Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 26.08.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

    AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

    AUDUSD is trading at 0.6731; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6740 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6605. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6810. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6905.



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    The Euro couldn’t hold its positions. Overview for 27.08.2019

    On Tuesday afternoon, the major currency pair stopped falling but is still rather unstable.

    EURUSD reached stability after falling on Monday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1101.

    All market players are still focused on trade wars. On the sidelines of the G7 summit, US President Donald Trump said that Chinese officials were trying to resume negotiations. Rumor has it that China want to use diplomatic officials to solve the problem instead of politicians.

    It would be good, but the fact that diplomatic officials and economists haven’t been able to handle many tense situations and come to terms after 8 months is pretty alarming. Both parties did a great job in exchanging additional tariffs, slowly destroying all possible “leftovers” of trading relations that they had before.

    The economic calendar is rather empty, just like it always is at the end of the month.

    Today, investors should pay attention to the statistics on the real estate market. The USA is going to report on the HPI, which is expected to add 0.2% m/m in June, better than the month before (+0.1% m/m). consumers are still active, despite an off-season.

    Later, the USA will publish the CB Consumer Confidence for August, which may be a rather unpleasant surprise. Market expectations are 129.3 points after 135.7 points in July. Partly, it may be just a correction after the high reading in the previous month, so before drawing far-reaching conclusions one should check the components of the report.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

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    Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 28.08.2019 (GBPUSD, EURJPY)

    GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

    As we can see in the H4 chart, the correctional uptrend is heading towards 61.8% fibo at 1.2350. After completing the correction, GBPUSD may form a new descending structure to reach the support at 1.2015. The mid-term downside targets are inside the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.2019 and 1.1788 respectively.



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    The Euro is trying to find support. Overview for 29.08.2019

    The major currency pair slowed down its decline again; all eyes are on the statistics.

    On Thursday morning, EURUSD is making another attempt to keep balance and avoid freefall. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1083.

    Today, market players will be focused on statistics. In the morning, they should pay attention to the Unemployment Change in Germany for August: it may well be that the indicator will increase. Not to say it’s too negative for the European currency, but there is nothing good in it as well.

    In the afternoon, the USA is scheduled to publish the revised GDP report for the second quarter. The indicator is expected remain the same in comparison with the preliminary reading at +2.4% q/q. Any deviations from market expectations may force investors to be more active.

    It will be interesting to check the preliminary report on the Wholesale Inventories in July, which may add 0.2% m/m. If actual and expected reading s match, it will be a good signal for the USD. Apart from this, there will be another interesting report, the Pending Home Sales, which may add only 0.1% m/m in July after skyrocketing by 2.8% in June. The contracts signed in the reporting months are considered to be fulfilled in 4-8 weeks, that’s why this decline will surely influence the real estate market numbers later and that’s an unpleasant surprise. The weaker the indicator, the worse for the real estate market and the USD in the future.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

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    Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 30.08.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

    EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

    After reaching another target at 1.1055, EURUSD has returned to 1.1090; right now, it is forming another descending wave towards 1.1026. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 1.1055 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1016.



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    The Euro reached the lowest levels over the last 36 months. Overview for 02.09.2019

    The major currency pair updated the lows of May 2017 and is pretty ready to continue its decline.

    Early in September, EURUSD is under quite significant pressure. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0989.

    Last Friday, “greenback” improved against a lot of major traded currencies, the Euro in particular. The key reason for such high demand for the American currency is a new phase of trade wars: new tariffs earlier announced by both parties, China and the USA, came into effect on September 1st. They cover a lot of different goods, from technologies to clothing and footwear. Step by step, the wars are switching from politicians to consumers.

    Most likely, this topic, I mean fears of an escalation of mutual import tariffs, will be the most important for market players at the beginning of September. Needless to say that this situation is in favor of the USD.

    This week, investors will focus on the US labor market numbers: the country will release them starting from Wednesday with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report for August to Friday with all other important readings. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%, while the above-mentioned indicator from ADP may show 159K after being 164L the month before.

    Another report to be closely watched by market players is the Average Hourly Earnings, which may add 0.3% m/m in August, the same as in July. These are good numbers, which may significantly support the USD.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

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