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Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

This is a discussion on Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 17.09.2019 (EURUSD, USDJPY) EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar” As we can see in the H4 chart, after ...

      
   
  1. #21
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    Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 17.09.2019 (EURUSD, USDJPY)

    EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

    As we can see in the H4 chart, after reaching the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.0942 and 1.0889 respectively again, EURUSD tried to grow and reach 61.8% fibo at 1.1126, but unsuccessfully. The current decline may be considered as a descending correction. The structure of this correction indicates uncertainty among investors, “turbulence” on the market, and a possibility of further expansion of the range, but the descending tendency is not over yet. Hence, the correction may yet continue to reach 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1.1126 and 1.1172 respectively in the short-term, but the key long-term targets are below the lows.



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    EURUSD is standing still in anticipation of the Fed’s decisions. Overview for 18.09.2019

    On Wednesday, the major currency pair is barely moving; investors are saving strengths in anticipation of news from the US Federal Reserve.

    EURUSD is standing still on Wednesday morning and waiting for the FOMC meeting to be over. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1065.

    Yesterday, the USD weakened a little bit as market players were adjusting their positions before the Fed’s highly anticipated decision to cut the rate. The regulator’s September meeting will be over tonight and investors are expecting the Fed to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points. As for CME (Current market expectations) that imply another rate cut until the end of this year, they are 80%. The White House is putting a lot of pressure on the Fed, hammering it for lack of activities, and believes that there should more significant rate cut than 25 basis points. Anyhow, tonight we will learn the regulator’s stance on this.

    Yesterday’s numbers from Germany supported the European currency pretty well. The ZEW Economic Sentiment went up from -44.1 points in July to -22.5 points in August. Of course, the indicator remains negative and the current correction doesn’t mean any bright future in the next 6 months, but the fact of recovery is surely positive.

    Numbers from the USA were also quite good. The Industrial Production added 0.6% m/m in August after losing 0.1% m/m the month before and against the expected reading of +0.2% m/m. major contribution was made by machinery (+1.6%, primary metalы (+1.3%), and nonmetallic mineral products (+1.1%). However, the key problem is the same: everything in this area is very difficult to predict as long as there are trade wars between the USA and China.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

  3. #23
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    Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 19.09.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

    EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

    EURUSD has broken 1.1040 by completing the second descending impulse; right now, it is still moving downwards. Today, the pair may form the third impulse to reach 1.1006 and then resume growing with the target at 1.1040.



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    The Pound intends to rise. Overview for 20.09.2019

    On Friday, GBPUSD is growing towards July’s highs.

    The British Pound is trading upwards against the USD on Friday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2570.

    Yesterday, the Bank of England left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, just as expected. The regulator’s September meeting was over and the results were rather neutral: all 9 members voted in favor of keeping the regulator’s current monetary policy intact. The BoE Quantitative Easing remained at £435B.

    In the comments, the BoE said that the inflation might weaken in case of uncertainty around the Brexit deal. In the future, the regulator is planning to shape its monetary policy based on the Pound exchange rate and the Brexit influence on the country’s economy. As they say in the BoE, prospects of global economic growth deteriorated due to trade wars. The British labor market looks quite tight, but not weak, and that’s good.

    According to expectations, the third-quarter GDP may add 0.2%, while the CPI may remain slightly below 2.0%.

    Market players decided that this time the BoE’s comments were too soft and, given all these Brexit influences, concluded that the regulator might consider cutting the rate in the future if necessary. The Pound’s response to that was quite positive.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

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    Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 23.09.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

    AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

    AUDUSD is trading at 0.6776; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6785 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6685. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6835. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6915.



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    The Yen slowed down its recovery, but may resume it at any moment. Overview for 24.09.2019

    On Tuesday morning, USDJPY stopped falling, but demand for the Yen may revive very soon.

    After yesterday’s recovery, the Japanese Yen is consolidating against the USD on Tuesday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 107.52.

    In the morning, Japan reported on the Manufacturing PMI for September, which was only 48.9 points after being 49.3 points the month before and against the expected reading of 49.5 points. The last time the indicator surpassed 50 points, the level that separates optimists from pessimists, this May, but couldn’t fix above it.

    The key reasons for the current slowdown are the decline of the global economy and the expansion of trade tensions. Everything is very simple: the export-oriented Japanese economy can’t operate at 100% with global trade wars around it.

    The components of the report show that new order declined at a weaker pace with the export and import as well. All this proves that external factors are more significant than meets the eye.

    The next meeting of the Bank of Japan is scheduled for October 31st, and the weak statistics may increase market expectations relating to the introduction of new stimulus measures.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

  7. #27
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    Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 25.09.2019 (GBPUSD, EURJPY)

    GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

    As we can see in the H4 chart, there was a divergence on MACD, which made the pair start a new descending tendency after reaching 50.0% fibo. GBPUSD is slowly falling to reach 23.6% fibo, but a local ascending impulse hints at a new growth towards the high at 1.2518 and then mid-term 61.8% fibo at 1.2710. However, the key scenario implies further decline towards 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.2344, 1.2270, and 1.2197 respectively.



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  8. #28
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    The USD strengthened significantly. Overview for 26.09.2019

    On Thursday, the major currency pair remains under pressure after the statistics and talks about Trump’s impeachment.

    EURUSD is trying to recover on Thursday, but quite unsuccessfully so far. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0954.

    Speculations of the US President Donald Trump’s impeachment ahead that appeared yesterday resulted in the drawdown of all USD-related assets. Needless to say that under such circumstances the USD was doing great.

    Another stressful factor was Trump’s aggressive rhetoric against China because market players really counted on the quick resumption of trade talks between the parties, but it was in vain.

    The statistics published by the USA yesterday were positive and provided additional support to the American currency. The New Home Sales went up to 713K in August after being 666K the month before and against the expected reading of 652K. Investors could have been more restrained in their response to the report, but the components showed that the sales of new single-family houses improved significantly, meaning that the real estate sector was reviving: people have no problems with creditworthiness, loans are available, and the economy is feeling fine. In this light, the USD is doing more than safely and happily.

    Today, one should pay attention to the final report on the US GDP for the second quarter, which is highly expected to remain unchanged at 2%.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

  9. #29
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    Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 27.09.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

    EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

    After reaching the downside target at 1.0920 and completing the correction towards 1.0966, EURUSD started another decline with the target at 1.0868 and has already broken 1.0922 to expand the range downwards. After that, the instrument may test 1.0922 from below and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.0882.



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  10. #30
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    The Australian Dollar is getting cheaper. Overview for 30.09.2019

    AUDUSD is retreating under pressure of the strengthened “greenback”.

    The Australian Dollar is losing positions against the Usd early in the week. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6752.

    The statistics published by China in the morning were mostly positive. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 points in September, which is much better than 50.4 points the month before. The Manufacturing PMI added 0.3 points this month, going from 49.5 points to 49.8 points. The Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped a little bit, from 53.8 points to 53.7 points.

    Numbers from China are very important for Australia, because China is its key trade and economic partner.

    The key highlight in the financial world right now is the non-resumption of US-China trade talks. While these two giant economies are dividing the world’s sales market, other participants of the global trade are suffering as well.

    Tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to have another meeting, where it is highly anticipated to cut the rate from 1.00% to 0.75%. in general, the Aussie is ready for this scenario, but may fall at the time of market emotions in response to the RBA’s comments.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

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