Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Aussie stopped rising. Overview for 10.09.2019

On Tuesday afternoon, AUDUSD took a short break after 6 consecutive trading sessions of stable growth.

The Australian Dollar slowed down its growth against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6860.

The statistics published in the morning showed that the NAB Business Confidence went from 4 points in July to 1 point in August. The indicator describes the sentiments of employees of the largest Australian companies except for the agriculture sector. Readings above and below zero imply improvement and deterioration of business sentiment respectively.

So far, the indicator is still above zero, but the decline prevents the Aussie from further growth.

In the morning, China reported on the CPI and PPI. Numbers from this country are very important for the Aussie because it’s Australia’s key trade and economic partner. So, the Chinese Consumer Price Index remained unchanged at 2.8% y/y in August, which is pretty good, although it was expected to drop to 2.6% y/y. The Producer Price Index, in its turn, plummeted by 0.8% y/y in August after losing 0.3% y/y in July and against market expectations of -0.9% y/y.

It is apparent that the September report on inflation may show slowdown, which is not very good for the country’s economy in current conditions. Weak inflation may indicate competitive environment slump for manufacturers and weak domestic demand.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 11.09.2019 (GBPUSD, EURJPY)

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.2019 and 1.1786 respectively, GBPUSD is trading upwards and has already reached 38.2% fibo at 1.2423. The next upside targets may be 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.2567 and 1.2710 respectively. The key support is at 1.1958.



Read more - Fibonacci Retracements Analysis GBPUSD, EURJPY

The Yen is surrendering. Overview for 12.09.2019

USDJPY is keeping positive momentum and getting close to its six weeks highs.

The Japanese Yen continues falling against the USD on Thursday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 107.92.

In the morning, Japan published a lot of numbers. The first one, the Producer Price Index, lost 0.9% y/y in August after reducing by 0.6% y/y in July and against market expectations of -0.8% y/y. The indicator describes the wholesale market prices and if there is a decline in it, there will be the same in the retail prices later.

The Tertiary Industry Activity added 0.1% m/m in Japan in July, which is quite good, because it was expected to lose 0.3% m/m.

The Core Machinery Orders became weaker as it lost 6.6% m/m in July. The indicator is rather volatile: In June, it added 13.9% m/m, but this month investors expected it to drop by 9.0% m/m. As a rule, this indicator is estimated as investments in the production sector. In case of decline, the amount of money invested in production is decreasing, which is not good for the Japanese economy.

The Yen seldom responds to the statistics, but, of course, the numbers should be closely monitored, because they may help to predict further activities of the Bank of Japan. The current decline of the Yen rate is mostly connected with contraction in demand for “safe haven” assets.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 13.09.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 1.0927 and almost forming Double Bottom pattern, EURUSD has completed the ascending impulse towards 1.1085; right now, it is consolidating around 1.1056. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 1.1185; if to the downside – then start another decline to reach 1.1000.



Read more - Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD

EURUSD will wait for decisions from the Fed. Overview for 16.09.2019

Early in another September week, EURUSD is quite stable; major news and events are ahead.

The major currency pair is barely moving at the beginning of another September week as investors are totally focused on the oil market. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1070.

Only China published several macroeconomic reports this morning; no new numbers are expected from both the USA and the Euro Area.

This week’s major focus will be on the September meeting of the American regulator, which is scheduled to start on Tuesday and last until Wednesday evening, September 18th. The FOMC is expected to cut the rate by 25 basis points. The White House’s pressure is too great for the regulator to continue resisting. Most likely, there will be one more rate cut by the Fed this year, probably in December. The country’s economy is surely in no need of such stimulus right now, but it may happen for political reasons.

After that, the Fed is highly likely to take a long pause and watch the economy both inside and outside the country.

It will be very interesting to check the comments that follow the meeting: if there must be any hints at future fiscal measures, the comments will have them. For the USD, the rate cut will be neutral, just because it is being discussed for several weeks; hence, it’s no news for investors.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 17.09.2019 (EURUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after reaching the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.0942 and 1.0889 respectively again, EURUSD tried to grow and reach 61.8% fibo at 1.1126, but unsuccessfully. The current decline may be considered as a descending correction. The structure of this correction indicates uncertainty among investors, “turbulence” on the market, and a possibility of further expansion of the range, but the descending tendency is not over yet. Hence, the correction may yet continue to reach 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1.1126 and 1.1172 respectively in the short-term, but the key long-term targets are below the lows.



Read more - Fibonacci Retracements Analysis EURUSD, USDJPY

EURUSD is standing still in anticipation of the Fed’s decisions. Overview for 18.09.2019

On Wednesday, the major currency pair is barely moving; investors are saving strengths in anticipation of news from the US Federal Reserve.

EURUSD is standing still on Wednesday morning and waiting for the FOMC meeting to be over. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1065.

Yesterday, the USD weakened a little bit as market players were adjusting their positions before the Fed’s highly anticipated decision to cut the rate. The regulator’s September meeting will be over tonight and investors are expecting the Fed to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points. As for CME (Current market expectations) that imply another rate cut until the end of this year, they are 80%. The White House is putting a lot of pressure on the Fed, hammering it for lack of activities, and believes that there should more significant rate cut than 25 basis points. Anyhow, tonight we will learn the regulator’s stance on this.

Yesterday’s numbers from Germany supported the European currency pretty well. The ZEW Economic Sentiment went up from -44.1 points in July to -22.5 points in August. Of course, the indicator remains negative and the current correction doesn’t mean any bright future in the next 6 months, but the fact of recovery is surely positive.

Numbers from the USA were also quite good. The Industrial Production added 0.6% m/m in August after losing 0.1% m/m the month before and against the expected reading of +0.2% m/m. major contribution was made by machinery (+1.6%, primary metalы (+1.3%), and nonmetallic mineral products (+1.1%). However, the key problem is the same: everything in this area is very difficult to predict as long as there are trade wars between the USA and China.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 19.09.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has broken 1.1040 by completing the second descending impulse; right now, it is still moving downwards. Today, the pair may form the third impulse to reach 1.1006 and then resume growing with the target at 1.1040.



Read more - Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD

The Pound intends to rise. Overview for 20.09.2019

On Friday, GBPUSD is growing towards July’s highs.

The British Pound is trading upwards against the USD on Friday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2570.

Yesterday, the Bank of England left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, just as expected. The regulator’s September meeting was over and the results were rather neutral: all 9 members voted in favor of keeping the regulator’s current monetary policy intact. The BoE Quantitative Easing remained at £435B.

In the comments, the BoE said that the inflation might weaken in case of uncertainty around the Brexit deal. In the future, the regulator is planning to shape its monetary policy based on the Pound exchange rate and the Brexit influence on the country’s economy. As they say in the BoE, prospects of global economic growth deteriorated due to trade wars. The British labor market looks quite tight, but not weak, and that’s good.

According to expectations, the third-quarter GDP may add 0.2%, while the CPI may remain slightly below 2.0%.

Market players decided that this time the BoE’s comments were too soft and, given all these Brexit influences, concluded that the regulator might consider cutting the rate in the future if necessary. The Pound’s response to that was quite positive.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 23.09.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6776; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6785 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6685. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6835. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6915.



Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 23.09.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)