Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Murrey Math Lines 01.10.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, AUDUSD is consolidating. In this case, the pair is expected to continue falling towards the support at 3/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 5/8. After that, the instrument may continue growing to reach the resistance at 7/8.



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The Australian Dollar continues falling. Overview for 01.10.2019

On Tuesday, AUDUSD is retreating; the RBA rate decision did match expectations.

The Australian Dollar remains week against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6734.

This morning, the October meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was over, where the regulator decided to cut the rate by 25 basis points, from 0.75% to 1.00%. However, this scenario was expected by investors, because earlier the regulator said that it would be necessary to boost the country’s economy.

Probably, now the RBA may take a pause and view the happenings, but if the global market conditions don’t change for the better, the regulator might as well cut the rate one more time until the end of the year.

The statistics published in the morning showed that the AIG Manufacturing Index went from 53.1 points in August to 54.7 points in September. The fact that the indicator is still above 50 points, which separates decline from growth, is surely positive.

At the moment, the thing the Aussie is mostly responding to is the USD strength, but not external news, that’s why it retreating.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 02.10.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6712; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6735 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6595. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6805. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6885.



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The Pound managed to reach stability. Overview for 02.10.2019

After being pretty volatile on Tuesday, GBPUSD found support and is ready to consolidate.

The British Pound has reached stability against the USD by Wednesday; the volatile Tuesday is gone. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2274.

The Pound rose significantly during yesterday’s trading session after Bloomberg reported that “the EU had discussed giving the UK a major concession on Brexit by possibly time-limiting the contentious backstop mechanism for the Irish border”. In addition to that, there were speculations that the European Union might consider some easing of its requirements in case the United Kingdom settled for a compromise in the Irish issue.

However, later it became known that the European Union didn’t consider this option, and that’s what made the Pound retreat.

Everything that is somehow relating to the Brexit and complications surrounding it has a strong influence and pressure on the Pound behavior. Meanwhile, the Brexit is only 29 days away.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 03.10.2019 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the descending wave tested the mid-term low at 0.6677 and then there was a convergence, which may indicate a new pullback in the nearest future. After the pullback, the price may continue falling towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 0.6595 and 0.6543 respectively.



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The Pound is very volatile. Overview for 03.10.2019

The British Pound has been pretty volatile recently; however, there is more to come.

The British Pound is very volatile against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2293.

It’s all about the Brexit nuances, which are moving to the forefront these days. So, the EU's Chief Negotiator for the United Kingdom Exiting the European Union Michel Barnier said yesterday that there was visible progress in negotiations. The United Kingdom offered Brussels several suggestions, but they had to be fully canvassed. Barnier once again emphasized that the European Union wouldn’t accept any no-deal Brexit scenarios.

As for London, they also mentioned that there was progress in Brexit talks and the country was ready to discuss everything in detail.

The statistics published today showed that the Services PMI dropped to 49.5 points in September after being 50.6 points the month before and against the expected reading of 50.3 points. The decline below the psychologically crucial level of 50 points says that market sentiments in the sector, which is very sensitive to consumer demand, are getting more pessimistic. It’s a very bad signal for the British Pound and economy.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

The Euro slowed down its growth. Overview for 04.10.2019

The major currency pair has significantly improved over this week, but investors need new catalysts.

EURUSD slowed down its growth on Friday morning in anticipation of the statistics from the USA and speeches to be delivered by the US monetary policymakers. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0973.

Yesterday, market players had concerns about signs of weakness in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the USA, because they might influence the global economy in general. However, maybe investors just got tired of buying and decided to wait for news.

The news will surely be today: later in the afternoon, the USA is going to report on the labor market for September. The Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 3.7%, which is the same as expected. The Average Hourly Earnings is expected to add 0.3% m/m after increasing by 0.4% m/m in August, and that’s a very good result.

Of course, investors’ attention will be focused on the Non-Farm Employment Change, which may show 145K after 130K the month before. In general, market expectations are quite favorable, and if they match actual readings, the USD may recover a bit.
In the evening, several US Federal Reserve members are scheduled to speak, including the Chair Jerome Powell, so the major currency pair may become very volatile along towards evening.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 04.10.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has finished the ascending wave 1.0997; right now, it is forming the first descending impulse with the predicted target at 1.0957. Later, the market may start another correction to reach 1.0978, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. After breaking this range to the downside, the instrument may continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.0895.



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Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 07.10.2019 (GOLD, NZDUSD)

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending tendency continues. After breaking the support level, XAUUSD has formed Hammer reversal pattern. Right now, the pair is reversing to test the rising channel’s downside border. If the pair continues growing, it may return to 1531.00 to continue forming the ascending tendency. At the same time, we shouldn’t exclude an opposite scenario, which implies that the instrument may resume falling to reach 1459.00.



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The Euro intends to continue rising. Overview for 07.10.2019

On Monday, EURUSD is consolidating, but may yet resume its growth.

The major currency pair is doing fine early in another October week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0980.

Last Friday, the USA published several September reports on employment, which turned out to be quite good after all. The Unemployment Rate wasn’t expected to change, but it dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%, which is the lowest level since 1969.

The Average Hourly Earnings remained unchanged in comparison with the August reading. However, on YoY, the indicator showed +2.9% in September after being +3.2% in the previous month. It’s not good news, but there are no reasons to worry so far. The Non-Farm Employment Change was 136K in September and it’s the lowest indicator value over the last four months. However, the August reading was revised upwards, up to 168K, and that made investors happy.

Generally speaking, these numbers indicate that the labor market remains stable, thus preventing the recession and allowing market players operating actively. In addition to that, the statistics don’t increase the Fed’s chances to raise the rate until the end of this year and that provided additional support to the USD.

Today, one should pay attention to the Sentix Investor Confidence for October. The indicator may decrease from -11.1 points to -12.9 points.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.