Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Murrey Math Lines 15.10.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, the pair started skyrocketing earlier, but then stopped close to the resistance at 7/8. In this case, the pair is expected to resume falling towards the support at 3/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 7/8. After that, the instrument may continue growing to reach the resistance at 8/8.



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The Pound keeps its hopes to rise. Overview for 15.10.2019

After a short pause, GBPUSD is back to growing; market players believe in the Brexit.

The British Pound is rising against the USD again after a two-day pause. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2661.

London and the European Union are coming to a head of the Brexit negotiations: the parties are running short of time for making a deal, but seem very determined to do it until the end of the month. This Thursday, October 17th, the EU is set to start its two-day summit and if there is no news relating to the Brexit by October 19th, the British Prime Minister is obliged by the law to ask for renewal of negotiations and extension of the deadline. However, this contradicts what Boris Johnson was saying during his ascendancy to the Prime Minister position.

Right now, the United Kingdom really needs no pauses in this process. If the deal with the European Union is signed this week, Johnson will require some time to rush all documents through the British parliament.

Later in the evening, the UK is scheduled to report on the labor market. For example, one should pay attention to the Average Earnings Index, which may add 4.0% 3m/y. Another report to be released is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% and that’s quite good. And the final indicator, the Claimant Count Change, may show 21.3K in September after being 28.2K in the previous month.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 16.10.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6732; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6755 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6655. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6795. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6875. After breaking the neckline of Head & Shoulders reversal pattern and fixing below 0.6705, the price may continue moving downwards.



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The Pound is waiting for the Brexit news. Overview for 16.10.2019

GBPUSD is trading close to May’s highs; investors’ attention is focused on the Brexit deal draft.

The British Pound moved a bit away from yesterday’s highs, but may yet continue rising. The current quote for GBPUSD is 1.2756.

Last night, the Pound was pretty popular in the view of talks about the Brexit deal draft prepared by the United Kingdom and the European Union. They said that the draft might appear in the media on Wednesday morning, but there hasn’t been any news about it so far.

Meanwhile, the talks continue. On Thursday, the EU is set to have the Brexit summit and some of the documents had to be ready at the opening.

It seems like the Pound will remain volatile in the next 24 hours, so investors may try to benefit from everything that is relating to the Brexit procedure.

The statistics published yesterday showed that the Unemployment Rate rose from 3.8% in August to 3.9% in September. The Claimant Count Change was 21.1K, bringing the total amount to 1.31M. The Average Earnings Index added 3.8% 3m/y against the expected reading of +4.0% 3m/y.

Overall, the British labor market is estimated as stable and neutral, and the August decline might have been temporary. In this light, it will be interesting to check on September numbers.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 17.10.2019 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the correctional downtrend close to the support at 23.6% fibo, AUDUSD is forming a new rising impulse to reach the local high. In the future, the impulse may break it and then continue growing towards mid-term 76.0% fibo at 0.6840 and the fractal high at 0.6894.



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The Australian Dollar rose on statistics. Overview for 17.10.2019

AUDUSD is trading upwards thanks to strong numbers on the Australian labor market.

The Australian Dollar is growing pretty well against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6775.

According to the statistics published today, the Unemployment Rate went from 5.3% in August to 5.2% in September, although it wasn’t expected to change. The Employment Change was 14.7K in September and the previous reading was revised from 34.7K to 37.9K.

This is good news that supported the Aussie. The situation on the Australian labor market didn’t worry investors before, but one more signal that the sector is okay is surely positive.

However, investors barely noticed another report, the NAB Quarterly Business Confidence, which was -2 points in the third quarter after being 5 points the quarter before. Moreover, the second quarter reading was revised downwards, which is also not good. The indicator being below 0 shows the deterioration of market conditions. There is a direct correlation here between Australia’s domestic economy and its foreign contacts, China first of all, whose economy is slowing down.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 18.10.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD continues forming the ascending structure from 1.1074; right now, it is consolidating below 1.1129. Possibly, the pair may break this range to the upside and continue growing towards 1.1144. Later, the market may form a new descending structure to reach 1.1129 and then start another growth towards 1.1158 to complete this ascending wave. After that, the instrument may start a new correction with the target at 1.1000.



Read more - Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD

The Euro is trading at 6 weeks highs. Overview for 18.10.2019

The major currency pair continues rising influenced by Brexit positive.

EURUSD intends to continue its growth on Friday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1124.

The major currency pair is feeling fine while being supported by the news that the United Kingdom and the European Union agreed on the Brexit deal. The Euro did feel nervous while policymakers were trying to reach consensus, so now it is regaining its positions.

Yesterday, the USA published a lot of numbers. First of all, the weekly Unemployment Claims report, which showed 214K against 201K last week. It’s not critical.

The Housing Starts declined in September and was only 1.26M after being 1.39M in August and against the expected reading of 1.32M. The same for the Building Permits: 1.39M in September against 1.43M the month before.

The Capacity Utilization Rate dropped from 77.9% to 77.5%. The indicator really was anticipated to fall, but the final reading was worse than expected. The Industrial Production lost 0.4% m/m in September after adding 0.8% m/m in the previous month. In the case of this indicator, some decline was also expected, but no one thought it would be so serious. However, this bad news has a quite conceivable reason: there were strikes at General Motors, which had a significant influence on the volume of car output and spare parts. The future outlook for the company still remains uncertain in the light of the global demand decline. In addition to that, the entire sector is looking rather weak due to trade wars between the USA and China.

In the future, the indicators may return into a positive area after trade agreements are signed or arranged at least, but it will take the manufacturing sector some time to recover and feel itself better.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 21.10.2019 (USDCAD, AUDUSD)

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCAD has formed several reversal patterns, including Hammer, close to the support level. Right now, the pair is reversing and may continue growing towards 1.3232. However, we shouldn’t ignore another scenario, according to which the instrument may fall to reach 1.3090.



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The Pound doesn’t believe in possible Brexit complications. Overview for 21.10.2019

GBPUSD stopped rising; investors are waiting for the news from the British policymakers.

The British Pound slowed down its growth against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2900.

Last week, the European Union and the United Kingdom agreed on the deal that might help to carry out the exiting procedure according to a “soft” scenario, which implied minimum damage to the British economy. The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to persuade the European policymakers to consider the aspects that were the most important to the Brits. Everything was good, but no one could predict what would happen later.

During its emergency meeting last Saturday, the British Parliament declined the deal, which means that policymakers might go back to discussing it today-tomorrow, but Johnson is highly likely to be forced to ask the European Union for another delay, this time until January. We remind you that the Brexit was set for October 31st, but the deal is there yet.

It appears that Johnson tripped over the same stone the former Prime Minister Theresa May did. Earlier, he deployed a lot of efforts to bar the Parliament from making such decisions, because he thought that policymakers might cause a lot of troubles. So they did.
Right now, market players aren’t ready yet to believe that the Brexit may fail again, but the activity in GBPUSD is already lower than earlier – investors are waiting for the news.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.