Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Murrey Math Lines 08.04.2024 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
EURUSD quotes have broken above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a potential uptrend. The RSI has broken the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break the 5/8 (1.0864) level, rising to the resistance at 6/8 (1.0986). The scenario might be cancelled by a breakout of the 4/8 (1.0772) level. In this case, the pair could decline to the support at 3/8 (1.0620).



On M15, the price rise could be additionally supported by a breakout of the upper line of the VoltyChannel.



GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, which indicates a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has broken the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to surpass the 4/8 (1.2695) level and rise to the resistance at 5/8 (1.2817). The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the 3/8 (1.2573) level, which might lead to a trend reversal, pushing the pair down to the support at 2/8 (1.2451).



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

GBP is aiming for growth. Overview for 09.04.2024

The British pound, paired with the US dollar, maintains positive momentum. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2657.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that GBP gains appear relatively modest as the market still experiences pressure from the trajectory of the US dollar. The chances of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve have significantly decreased compared to the levels seen earlier in the year. Initially, investors expected six rate cuts but now only anticipate a maximum of three.

The latest comments from the US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, indicating that the Fed is in no hurry to make essential decisions, were supported by data on prices and employment. The US economy is clearly in a more stable position than it appeared at the beginning of the year, which is positive news for the US and the US dollar but not for interest rate prospects.

The market has already factored in the Bank of England’s soft stance on interest rates and the declining inflation parameters in the UK. Core inflation in the UK is currently holding steady at 4.5%, significantly higher than the 2% inflation target, ruling out a scenario of rapid interest rate cuts.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 10.04.2024 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
EURUSD is rebounding from the signal lines of the indicator. The pair is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.0835 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.0980. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing below 1.0745, indicating a further decline to 1.0655. Meanwhile, the rise could be confirmed by a breakout of the upper boundary of the bearish channel, with the price gaining a foothold above 1.0895.



XAUUSD, "Gold vs US Dollar"
Gold has established itself above the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper boundary of the Cloud at 2340 is expected, followed by a rise to 2405. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing below 2305, which will signal a further decline to 2265.



AUDUSD, "Australian Dollar vs US Dollar"
AUDUSD is correcting following a rebound from the resistance level. The pair is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 0.6605 is expected, followed by a rise to 0.6715. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing below 0.6495, which will indicate a further decline to 0.6405.



Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JPY hits new lows. Overview for 11.04.2024

The Japanese yen has dropped even deeper against the US dollar. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 152.98.

The yen collapsed under pressure from the US dollar after US treasury bond yields rose. This happened amid the publication of March inflation statistics, which completely inverted market expectations. Now, the market believes that the wide gap between the interest rates of the Bank of Japan and the US Fed will remain in force. This factor has the strongest impact on the JPY exchange rate.

Japanese authorities continue to hint at a possible intervention in currency fluctuations if exchange rate movements become excessive and disorderly, but this has long ceased to impress anyone.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance is perhaps considering the appropriate timing for any action. Yet for now, fiscal authorities continue to reiterate the same message day after day: "We are observing, monitoring, and ready for anything".

The government perfectly realises that factual intervention will only provide a short-term respite for the yen. That is why financial interventions have yet to occur.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 12.04.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent
Brent quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has broken the support line, exiting the overbought area. As a result, in this situation, the price is expected to test the 4/8 (87.50) level, rebound from it, and rise to the resistance at 6/8 (93.75). The scenario could be cancelled by breaking below the 4/8 (87.50) level. In this case, Brent quotes could decline to the support at 3/8 (84.38).



On M15, following a rebound from the 4/8 (87.50) level on D1, the price rise could be additionally confirmed by a breakout of the upper line of the VoltyChannel.



S&P 500
S&P 500 quotes remain in the overbought area on D1. The RSI is testing the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the +2/8 (5312.5) level, rebound from it, and fall to the support at 8/8 (5000.00). The scenario could be cancelled by rising above +2/8 (5312.5), which might reshuffle the Murrey indication, setting new price movement targets.



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EUR continues to decline. Overview for 15.04.2024

The primary currency pair is below the previous level on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0650.

The US dollar strengthened its position for two reasons. The Federal Reserve’s reactions to the US inflation data delayed the expected timing of a rate cut, pushing it back to September, and the Middle East conflict intensified.

Last week, EURUSD experienced the most significant weekly decline since 2022. US inflation figures were unambiguous: prices remain high. This situation made the Federal Reserve hesitant about its forthcoming decisions. Investors immediately shifted the likely date for an interest rate cut in this monetary cycle from June to September. It seems the Federal Reserve only has two rate cuts left for this year. For comparison, back in January, it was expected that there would be six.

The Middle East disputes are escalating to a new level, reducing risk appetite on the stock market and contributing to demand for the safe-haven US dollar.

Combined, all these factors have worked against the EURUSD, pushing the pair to its lowest value since 11 March.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 16.04.2024 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, "Australian Dollar vs US Dollar"
AUDUSD quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, revealing the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has broken the support line. In this situation, a breakout of the 1/8 (0.6408) level is expected, followed by a price decline to the support at 0/8 (0.6437). The scenario might be cancelled by rising above 2/8 (0.6469), in which case the quotes could correct to the resistance at 3/8 (0.6530).



On M15, the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel is breached, which increases the probability of a further price decline.



NZDUSD, "New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar"
NZDUSD quotes and the RSI are approaching their oversold areas on D1. In this situation, a test of 0/8 (0.5859) is expected, followed by a rebound from this level and a rise to the resistance at 2/8 (0.5981). In this case, the quotes might drop to the support at -1/8 (0.5798).



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EUR halted. Overview for 17.04.2024

The primary currency pair paused its sell-off on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0624.

The market has grown weary of selling, particularly as the five-month lows have been updated repeatedly. Monetary policymakers from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank were quite active yesterday, but the market has already factored in all their comments in the quotes.

Jerome Powell, Chair of the US Federal Reserve, stated yesterday that the regulator hopes to receive more confident data on inflation stabilisation in the future. Investors interpreted his remarks literally, concluding that the Fed is not ready to cut interest rates in June and is shifting forecasts to September.

European Central Bank member Francois Villeroy de Galhau highlighted the ECB's ability to adjust the pace of interest rate cuts if the Middle East conflict has a long-term impact on energy prices. The ECB is expected to make its first interest rate cut after the June meeting. Inflation in the region is confidently heading towards 2%. Market participants expect to see three rate cuts by the end of 2024.

While there is no contradiction between monetary policies, the market's reaction to Powell's remarks is evident: investors are adjusting their strategies in response to the absence of decisive action from the Fed on a global scale.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EUR is recovering. Overview for 18.04.2024

The primary currency pair is rebounding on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0674.

The US dollar lost some strength as the market grew tired of worrying about shifting expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Investors already know that the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy settings will remain restrictive for some time. It is high time the EURUSD normalised.

The US dollar has recently surged as the released macroeconomic statistics confirmed the robust performance of the US economy, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate reduction in June. Additionally, the US dollar has been in demand as a safe-haven asset while the Middle East is experiencing heightened tensions.

Risk appetite is now recovering, and this is becoming more evident with the agreement among the US, Japan, and South Korea to consult on currency market issues.

Today, the market awaits weekly data on jobless claims in the US and the March report on existing home sales.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 19.04.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent
Brent quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has rebounded from the support line. As a result, in this situation, a test of 5/8 (90.62) is expected, followed by a breakout of this level and a price rise to the resistance at 6/8 (93.75). The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the 4/8 (87.50) level. In this case, the quotes could drop to the support at 3/8 (84.38).



On M15, the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a further price rise.



S&P 500
S&P 500 quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has reached the oversold area. In this situation, the quotes are expected to rise above 0/8 (5000.0), rising to the resistance level of +1/8 (5156.2) afterwards. The scenario could be cancelled by breaking the 7/8 (4843.8) level, in which case the price might continue declining and reach the support at 6/8 (4687.5).



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team