Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The USD was crashed by the Fed’s stance. Overview for 12.12.2019

The major currency pair reached its five weeks highs influenced by the Fed’s comments after the December meeting.

On Thursday morning, EURUSD is trading close to its five weeks highs. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1138.

The US Fed December meeting, which was over yesterday, offered investors nothing new. The interest rate remained at 1.50-1.75%, the same as expected. However, the comments that followed surprised market players.

The regulator said that the current monetary policy was appropriate and in compliance with its economic purposes. The Fed continues monitoring home affairs and inflation pressure, which is quite reserved. It means that the interest rate wouldn’t be cut unless the regulator witnesses some serious changes in the country’s economy.

It was a pretty unpleasant surprise for the USD because market players were sure that the American economy was strong enough for the rate increase in the nearest future.

The revised forecast from the Fed was a bit worse. For example, inflation is expected to be 1.4-1.5% at the end of 2019 against the previous estimate of 1.5-1.6%.

Later today, investors’ attention will switch to the ECB meeting.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 13.12.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After forming a continuation pattern around 1.1111 and breaking 1.1153, EURUSD has almost reached the short-term upside target at 1.1098. Possibly, today the pair may consolidate around 1.1180 and expand this range both upwards and downwards, 1.1200 and 1.1155 respectively. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume moving upwards with the key target at 1.1236 if to the downside – start a new correction to reach 1.1111.



Read more - Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD

The Pound skyrocketed to its highs. Overview for 13.12.2019

GBPUSD is heading towards the highs of spring of 2018 after preliminary results of the early parliamentary elections were announced.

The British Pound almost reached the highs of May 2018 against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3410.

According to the preliminary results, the Conservative party got at least 368 out of 650 seats in the early parliamentary elections that took place yesterday. The party hasn’t seen such strong results for a very long time, while for its opponent, the British Labor Party, they are the worst over 40 years.

Now, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has to navigate all necessary documents for the Brexit through the renewed Parliament. This convocation of the Parliament is expected to be more suitable for ratifying the agreement with the European Union. In case everything goes the way as it should, the United Kingdom may exit the alliance within the specified time, before the end of January 2020.

Actually, upsurge in the Pound describes the situation perfectly. It’s amazing that Johnson didn’t cave in to the opposition put up earlier in the House of Commons.

In the short-term, investors’ attention will slowly switch to London-Brussels talks on trading conditions. This week, it was said this week that the parties were very unlikely to have enough time for discussing everything that concerned trade relations and making a deal until the end of January. In this case, the United Kingdom may exit the European Union with a minimum set of trading arrangements. The rest of them will have to be madу off the cuff.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 16.12.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is correcting with the target at 1.1100. Possibly, today the pair may move upwards to reach 1.1146 and then form a new descending structure towards the above-mentioned target. Later, the market may start the fifth wave to the upside to reach the key target at 1.1236.



Read more - Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD

Numbers couldn’t support the Aussie. Overview for 16.12.2019

AUDUSD is falling early in the week influenced by the strong USD and rather mixed statistics.

The Australian Dollar is retreating against the USD in the middle of December. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6870.

In the morning, Australia reported on the Manufacturing PMI, which dropped down to 49.4 points in December after being 49.9 points in the pre3vious month, thus indicating a continual decline in the sector. The Services PMI in Australia decreased down to 49.5 points after showing 49.7 points in November, which is also pretty bad for the Aussie because should be vice versa due to the seasonality.

Numbers from China, no matter how positive they were, couldn’t support the Australian Dollar. The Industrial Production added 6.2% y/y in November and reached its five-month high after showing +4.7% y/y the month before and against the expected reading of +5.1% y/y. Apparently, the indicator improved because of more active domestic demand – the Chinese government put a lot of effort for that.

The Fixed Asset Investment showed +5/2% ytd/y, just as expected. The Retail Sales added 8.0% y/y in November after expanding by 7.2% y/y in October.

News relating to a possible signature of the first phase of the US-China trade agreement should have a positive influence on the Australian currency.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Murrey Math Lines 17.12.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, AUDUSD is moving at 5/8. In this case, the pair is expected to break this level and continue falling towards the support at 3/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price rebounds from 5/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing to reach the resistance at 6/8.



Read more - Murrey Math Lines AUDUSD, NZDUSD

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 18.12.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6849; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6840 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6920. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6795. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6695.



Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD

They continue selling the Australian Dollar. Overview for 18.12.2019

On Wednesday morning, AUDUSD is still retreating; investors are in favor of the American currency.

The Australian Dollar is falling against the USD in the middle of the week. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6844.

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia released its December Meeting Minutes. Policymakers came up with an opinion that it would be reasonable to review their economic outlook as early as during the regulator’s meeting in February 2020. The RBA has opportunities to use the necessary tools to give a boost to the country’s economy in case the labor market parameters get worse, but there is no need to do it so far. Apparently, this refers to the interest rate revision. According to the regulator, one should expect an extended period of low interest rates due to both global and domestic factors.

The RBA is a bit concerned about the slow growth rate of household incomes. However, if we take a look at rather cautious numbers in employment, we can see that there is no stress here, it’s just a low-key tendency.

As for the economic outlook, consumers remain very careful and cautious: economic issues are covered in the media in a quite “gloomy” way. However, people’s attitude to their own finance is pretty smooth, and that’s a good thing.

Overall, everything that was in the report was quite expected, because the key thing is that the RBA is ready to cut the rate if necessary. Probably, the conditions for that may appear at the end of the first quarter of 2020.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

AUD found support in statistics. Overview for 21.03.2024

The Australian dollar has shifted to an upward trend against the US dollar. The current AUDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6621.

The Aussie received significant support from the Australian employment market statistics. The number of jobs increased by 116.5 thousand, surpassing the forecasted rise of 40.0 thousand. The unemployment rate in February dropped to 3.7% compared to the expected 4.0%.

Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate at 4.35% per annum. It has remained stable for the third consecutive meeting. The current interest rate is the highest in 12 years.

In its commentary, the RBA refrained from signalling further interest rate increases. This shows that the RBA is confident in the inflationary outlook and sees evidence of price cooling.

Additionally, the AUD benefits from the decline in the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 21.03.2024 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has rebounded from the support line. In this situation, the price is expected to rebound from the 5/8 (0.8850) level and rise to the resistance at 6/8 (0.8911). The scenario could be cancelled by breaking below the support at 4/8 (0.8789), which could lead to a trend reversal, pushing the pair down to 3/8 (0.8728).



On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel is too far away from the current price, so a rebound from the 5/8 (0.8850) level on H4 will signal a price rise.



XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, which indicates a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has reached the overbought area. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 6/8 (2187.50) level and rebound from it, rising to the resistance at 8/8 (2250.00). The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the 6/8 (2187.50) level. In this case, Gold quotes might decline to the support at 4/8 (2125.00).





Read more - Murrey Math Lines (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team