Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD continues to correct after a surge

A decrease in France’s balance of trade and US initial jobless claims may fuel a continuation of the EURUSD correction. Find out more in our analysis dated 8 August 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• France’s exports: previously at 50.4 billion EUR
• France’s imports: previously at 58.2 billion EUR
• France’s balance of trade: previously at -8.0 billion EUR, forecasted at -7.5 billion EUR
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 249 thousand EUR, forecasted at 241 thousand
• EURUSD forecast for 8 August 2024: 1.0860 and 1.0820

Fundamental analysis

France’s exports have remained relatively stable at around 50.0 billion over the past several years, compared to the previous reading of 50.4 billion.

France’s imports have also remained steady within the 56-60 billion range over the past year, with the previous reading at 58.2 billion.

The balance of trade shows the difference between the value of a country’s exports and imports. A trade surplus indicates that the country exports more than imports, while a negative trade balance means the opposite. The forecast suggests that the trade balance could decrease by 0.5 billion. This may have no significant impact on the EURUSD rate at present, but it could potentially help strengthen the euro in the long term.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the employment market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment. Analysis for 8 August 2024 shows that initial jobless claims are projected to decrease to 241 thousand, which could positively impact the US dollar. If the actual reading exceeds the forecast, the EURUSD pair could continue its corrective wave.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

NZDUSD continues to regain ground after decline

Despite a reduction in NZD speculative net positions, the NZDUSD pair continues to strengthen. The New Zealand dollar is gaining against the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis for today, 9 August 2024.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly report analyses non-commercial traders’ (speculators’) speculative positions in the US futures markets. The information is presented as the difference between traders’ long and short positions on Chicago’s and New York’s futures platforms. The CFTC report is published every Friday at 3:30 pm EST and covers data up to the previous Tuesday.

According to recent data, the number of speculative long positions in the New Zealand dollar has decreased for two consecutive weeks, suggesting that bearish sentiment dominates the market.

Although CFTC Gold’s speculative net positions decreased according to the previous report, long positions continue to increase overall.

NZDUSD technical analysis

The NZDUSD H4 chart shows that the market has formed a consolidation range around 0.5950. The price broke above this range today, 9 August 2024. A growth wave is expected to continue towards 0.6050. This upward movement is considered a correction of the previous downward trend. Once the correction is complete, a new downward phase could begin, aiming for 0.5800.



Limited fundamental data, combined with the NZDUSD technical analysis in today’s NZDUSD forecast, suggests that the pair may continue to correct towards 0.6050. After testing this level, a downward movement could start, targeting 0.5800.

Read more - NZDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY may continue its ascent after a recent decline

A positive USDA report may support the US dollar and drive further growth in the USDJPY rate. Find out more in our analysis dated 12 August 2024

USDJPY trading key points

• US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on world agricultural supply and demand estimates
• A report on US federal budget execution: previously at -66.0 billion, forecasted at -254.3 billion
• USDJPY forecast for 12 August 2024: 150.00 and 155.25

Fundamental analysis

The monthly US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report provides up-to-date forecasts for global and national balances between the supply and use of key cereal crops, soybeans, derivative products, and cotton. Additionally, it includes data on US domestic supply and consumption of sugar and livestock products. Positive key indicators may support the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The monthly federal budget execution report estimates the difference between government revenues and expenditures for a specific month by calculating the difference between inflows and spending. A negative reading indicates a budget deficit, while a positive reading suggests a surplus. Analysis for 12 August 2024 shows that a budget deficit is projected to increase to -254.3 billion US dollars. This could negatively impact the US dollar, causing the USDJPY rate to fall.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) holds around record highs

XAUUSD price remains elevated. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 13 August 2024.

XAUUSD price declined to 2,462 USD per troy ounce on Tuesday after hitting new peaks.

Investors continue to seek gold as a safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions, primarily in the Middle East.

In the near term, the market will closely watch statistics, particularly the US Consumer Price Index data scheduled for release on Wednesday. These figures will provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s future actions regarding interest rates.

XAUUSD technical analysis

The XAUUSD H4 chart indicates that the market has established a consolidation range around 2,426.62 and, after breaking above this level, reached the local target of 2,474.44 for the growth wave. The mid-term XAUUSD price forecast has been realised. Today. 13 August 2024, a correction towards 2,426.62 (testing from above) could continue. Once the correction is complete, a new growth wave could develop, targeting 2,488.94.



Gold (XAUUSD) prices remain high. Technical indicators suggest a potential decline in XAUUSD quotes to 2,426.62, followed by a rise to 2,488.94.

Read more - XAUUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Meta’s shares are trading at an all-time high. Is there potential for further growth?

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) stock is the only stock among the Magnificent Seven that did not fall after the release of its Q2 2024 report. The company showed robust performance over the past quarter. This article will provide a fundamental analysis of Meta Platforms, outlining its strengths and weaknesses and examining a forecast based on a technical analysis of Meta’s stock.

Meta Platforms Q2 2024 report

Meta announced solid financial Q2 2024 results. Below are the figures compared to the same period in 2023:

• Revenue – 39.74 billion USD (+22%)
• Net income – 13.46 billion USD (+73%)
• Earnings per share – 5.16 USD (+73%)
• Operating margin – 38%​ (+900 basis points)
• Advertising revenue – 38.20 billion USD (+21%)
• Number of daily active users – 3.27 billion (+7%)

Advertising remains the primary revenue stream, contributing to 96% of the company’s total revenue. The Reality Labs unit, which specialises in developing virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR) technologies, has only generated losses so far. By the end of Q2 2024 results, Reality Labs’ loss reached 4.50 billion USD, an increase of 21%.

Meta Platforms, Inc.’s forecast for Q3 2024

Meta’s Chief Financial Officer, Susan Li, forecasts revenue for Q3 2024 to be between 38.50 billion USD and 41.00 billion USD, representing a 12–20% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The Reality Labs division is expected to continue incurring operating losses, which are anticipated to grow as the company invests in new product development and expands its ecosystem.

Capital expenditures for 2024 are projected to be between 37.00 billion USD and 40.00 billion USD, 2.00 billion USD more than previously estimated. Further increases in spending are expected in 2025, as the company plans to invest in artificial intelligence research and the development of new products.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

NZDUSD temporarily strengthens amid signs of stabilisation in the New Zealand economy

The NZDUSD rate rises on Friday after rebounding from the 0.5975 support level. Find out more in our analysis dated 16 August 2024.

Despite the morning’s strengthening of the NZDUSD rate, New Zealand’s manufacturing sector is still facing challenges. Although the BusinessNZ PMI increased to 44.0 points in July from 41.1 in June, it remains significantly below the long-term average of 52.6 points, marking 17 consecutive months of contraction in manufacturing and highlighting serious challenges in the sector.

New Zealand's producer inflation in Q2 2024 was also higher than expected. Prices of production resources rose by 1.4% from the previous quarter mainly due to rising prices for energy and gas supplies. This increases pressure on the industry and may negatively impact the country’s economy as a whole.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr noted that the cash rate could be cut by another 50 basis points by the end of the year as inflation is moving towards the 1-3% target range. According to today’s NZDUSD forecast, this statement will help strengthen the New Zealand dollar as it gives hope for a certain stabilisation of the economic environment in the near term.

NZDUSD technical analysis

On the NZDUSD H4 chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around 0.6000 and, breaking above it, reached a local target of 0.6082. There was a technical return to 0.5980 (testing from above) today, 16 August 2024. The growth wave is expected to extend to 0.6115. This growth structure is considered a correction of the previous downward wave. Once the correction is complete, a new downward wave could begin, aiming for (at least) 0.5800.



While expectations of economic stabilisation have temporarily supported the NZDUSD rate, the potential easing of the RBNZ monetary policy may exert pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the near term. Technical indicators in today’s NZDUSD forecast suggest a correction towards 0.6115, followed by a downward wave towards 0.5800.

Read more - NZDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD may rise further to 1.3000

The British pound continues to strengthen against the US dollar despite scarce UK news. Find out more in our analysis dated 19 August 2024.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Rightmove UK house price index (m/m): previously at -0.4%, currently at -1.5%
• A speech by Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller
• GBPUSD forecast for 19 August 2024: 1.2798 and 1.2630

Fundamental analysis

A monthly change in the Rightmove UK house price index was published today. The indicator shows how much the average price of housing property for sale has changed over the reporting period. Data above the forecast and the previous value is a positive factor for the pound sterling. Weaker-than-expected statistics reflect negative developments. Although the indicators are currently below the previous readings, they did not have a significant impact on the GBPUSD rate.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver a speech at the beginning of the US trading session and might shed light on the Fed’s monetary policy. A decision to change the US interest rate is expected in September; a reduction is only likely if inflation indicators stabilise. Analysis for 19 August 2024 shows that if the interest rate changes, this could further weaken the US dollar and push up the GBPUSD pair after a correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY: the US dollar strengthens again; the yen loses ground

The USDJPY pair is attempting to regain ground after a decline. The Japanese prime minister elections are scheduled for 27 September. Find out more in our analysis dated 20 August 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

The forecast for 20 August 2024 shows that the market has corrected towards 145.20 on the USDJPY H4 chart. This level is considered a minimum for the correction, with a decline to 145.00 being possible.



The FOMC member’s speech, the elections in Japan, and the USDJPY technical analysis in today’s USDJPY forecast suggest a growth wave towards the 150.55 and 156.00 levels.

Read more - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY is at a two-week low: the US dollar remains weak

The USDJPY pair continues to decline, with sentiment towards the US dollar decreasing. Find out more in our analysis dated 21 August 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair weakens further
• Investors are focused on the upcoming decisions of the US Federal Reserve
• USDJPY forecast for 21 August 2024: 147.77, 150.55, and 156.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate dipped to 145.72 on Wednesday, marking a two-week low. The Japanese yen appears relatively strong, but this is largely because the US dollar is currently unattractive. Investors believe the US Federal Reserve will soon be compelled to reduce borrowing costs to avoid an economic downturn.

Today, attention is on the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. Subsequently, investors will watch the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which is due on Friday.

The possibility of the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates remains under review. At the end of the week, BoJ official Kazuo Ueda will clarify his actions in a speech to the Japanese parliament. The USDJPY forecast suggests that the yen will remain in a strong position.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD reaches a new annual high: the US dollar suffers heavy losses

The EURUSD pair has skyrocketed to levels last seen in December 2023. The US dollar remains under tremendous pressure. Find out more in our analysis dated 22 August 2024.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the market has broken above the 1.1135 level and completed a growth wave, reaching 1.1173. The EURUSD rate is expected to decline to 1.1135 (testing from above) today, 22 August 2024.



The EURUSD pair is reaching 2024 highs and continues to climb. Technical indicators in today’s EURUSD forecast suggest that the growth wave could extend to 1.1195, marking the completion of growth potential.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team